..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 20/02/26, The Live Mint Report

Friday, February 20, 2026

20/02/26, The Live Mint Report

The 30-pack Sensex ended the session 1,236 points, or 1.48%, lower at 82,498.14, while its 50-stock counterpart, the Nifty 50, settled the day at 25,454.35, suffering a loss of 365 points, or 1.41%. The Bank Nifty index crashed 811 points and closed at 60,739.

The broad-based selloff also impacted second-rung mid- and small-cap indices, as the BSE 150 MidCap Index crashed 1.54% and the BSE 250 SmallCap Index declined 1.16%. Investors lost about ₹7 lakh crore as the overall market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms dropped to nearly ₹465 lakh crore during the day from ₹472 lakh crore in the previous session.

Speaking on the outlook of the Indian stock market today, Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money, said, "The sell-off was broad-based across banking, auto, FMCG, metals, and aviation stocks, reflecting a clear risk-off sentiment driven by escalating US-Iran tensions, a hawkish US Fed outlook, a spike in India VIX to 13.46 (up over 10%), and sustained FII pressure, with DIIs also turning net sellers in the previous session."

Expecting a weak opening on Friday, Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder of Livelong Wealth, said the Gift Nifty today indicates a slightly bearish start for the Nifty 50, extending yesterday's negative momentum.

US-Iran war

Awaiting President Donald Trump's orders, a massive military buildup, including warships, fighter jets and refuelling aircraft, is hovering in West Asia. The target would be Iran if the ongoing negotiations over Tehran's nuclear programme fail to produce an agreement.

According to CNN and CBS, the US military is ready to launch strikes against Iran as early as this weekend, but Trump has not yet made a final decision. Russia and Iran, too, have conducted naval exercises in the Sea of Oman to deter any "unilateral action" in the region.

Gold, silver rates today

Following the escalation in US-Iran tensions, gold and silver opened today with an upside gap. The COMEX gold rate today opened higher and touched an intraday high of $5,033.39/oz, logging an intraday gain of nearly 0.50%. Likewise, the COMEX silver rate today opened with an upside gap and touched today's high of $78.655/oz, recording an intraday high of around 0.75% within a few minutes of the Opening Bell.

Speaking on the outlook of the silver, gold rates today, Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert, said, "Gold and silver rates are rising due to the escalation in the US-Iran tension. This has increased demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets."

Anuj Gupta said that the gold rate today is in $4,850 to $5,200 per ounce range, whereas the silver rate today is in $70 to $85 per ounce range. He said that the gold rate today in India is in the ₹1,50,000 per 10 gm to ₹1,58,000 per 10 gm range, while the silver rate today in India is in the ₹2,30,000 per kg to ₹2,55,000 per kg range.

FII-DII data

Both FIIs and DIIs ended the day as net sellers. The FIIs sold out Indian shares worth ₹881 crore, whereas the DIIs sold out shares worth ₹596 crore.

USD vs INR

The Indian Rupee is expected to trade in a range of 89 to 90 against the US dollar by the end of fiscal year 2027, supported by a softer dollar and a manageable current account deficit (CAD), according to a report by CareEdge Ratings.

The report highlighted that the USD/INR strengthened from recent lows of around 92 to approximately 90.6 following the trade deal with the United States and the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the European Union.

Market Setup:

Speaking on the outlook of the Nifty 50 today, Nilesh Jain, VP- Head of Technical and Derivative research at Centrum Finverse, said, "The Nifty 50 index has slipped below its key short-term moving averages and formed a bearish engulfing candlestick, indicating a potential bearish reversal. Immediate resistance is at the 100-DMA near 25,700. On the downside, the crucial support of the 200-DMA is positioned at 25,310, and a decisive break below this could open further downside towards 25,100 levels."

On the outlook of the Bank Nifty today, Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said, "The Bank Nifty has formed a bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart, suggesting a potential reversal or at least a pause following the recent rise. The bullish trend appears to be waning after a large red candle formed on the daily chart. The RSI has entered a bearish crossover and is trending lower, indicating weakening momentum. Overall, the sentiment looks weak. On the lower end, support is seen at 60,500/60000, while on the higher end, resistance is placed at 61,200."

Stocks to buy today

Regarding stocks to buy today, stock market experts - Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking; Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager of Technical Research at Anand Rathi; and Shiju Koothupalakkal, Senior Manager of Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher, recommended these seven intraday stocks for today: UPL, Biocon, HDFC Life, Fortis Healthcare, Tata Technologies, Samman Capital, and MM Forging.

Sumeet Bagadia's stock recommendations for today

1] UPL: Buy at ₹765, Target ₹820, Stop Loss ₹738; and

2] Biocon: Buy at ₹383, Target ₹410, Stop Loss ₹370.

Ganesh Dongre's buy or sell stocks

3] HDFC Life: Buy at ₹732, Target ₹758, Stop Loss ₹715;

4] Fortis Healthcare: Buy at ₹906, Target ₹940, Stop Loss ₹890; and

5] Tata Technologies: Buy at ₹602, Target ₹635, Stop Loss ₹590.

Shiju Koothupalakkal's intraday stocks for today

6] Samman Capital: Buy at ₹151.35, Target ₹161, Stop Loss ₹147; and

7] MM Forging: Buy at ₹488.50, Target ₹520, Stop Loss ₹478.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Friday, February 20, 2026

20/02/26, The Live Mint Report

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20/02/26, The Live Mint Report

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