Following weak global cues on escalation in the US-Iran war, the Indian stock market ended lower on Monday.
Following the renewed hopes of US-Iran ceasefire talks, the Gift Nifty index is up by around 350 points, showcasing strong vibes favouring bulls.
Global markets have reinforced this positive tone. US equities ended higher, with the Nasdaq extending its rally with a 2% gain, marking its tenth consecutive day of advances, while the Dow Jones added around 300 points. This strength has carried into Asia, where markets are trading firmly in the green. Japan's Nikkei is up more than 1%, while South Korea's Kospi is leading gains with a rise of over 3%. The consistency in global risk appetite suggests that investors are positioning for stability rather than escalation.
On what Gift Nifty and global market sentiments are signalling, Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder, Livelong Wealth, said, "Indian markets are set to open on a strong note today, with Gift Nifty signalling a solid gap-up start near the 24,200 zone, compared to Monday's close of 23,842. This indicates a sharp recovery in sentiment after the recent risk-off phase, driven largely by improving global cues and easing geopolitical concerns."
US-Iran latest news
The shift in momentum comes despite the ongoing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. Markets appear to be looking past immediate risks and are instead pricing in the possibility of renewed diplomatic engagement between the US and Iran. This change in narrative has led to a sharp correction in crude oil prices, a key positive for India given its energy import dependence. Lower crude prices not only ease inflation concerns but also provide relief to the rupee and support corporate margins across sectors.
Gold, silver rates today
Gold and silver prices held gains for a second session on Wednesday, April 15, amid renewed optimism that the US and Iran are working toward a negotiated resolution to the war, which helped ease inflationary concerns stemming from an energy supply shock.
COMEX gold rate today surged marginally higher to $4,855 per ounce in early trading after rising over 2% in the previous session. Meanwhile, the COMEX silver rate today also rose to $79 per ounce during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday.
Renisha Chainani, Head - Research at Augmont, said that gold and silver remain in a confirmed bull trend, but the path higher is volatile. The ceasefire is fragile, inflation is rising, and ETF flows are mixed.
On the technical outlook of gold prices, Chainani said, "Gold has a resistance zone around $4800 to $4850 (~ ₹154,000 to ₹155,000), if prices sustain above this level, it can tend higher towards $5000 (~ ₹160,000), while $4600 (~ ₹148500) is the strong support."
On the silver prices outlook, she added, "Silver has resistance around $77 (~ ₹246,000), if prices sustain above this level, it can touch levels of $82 (~ ₹255,000) and $87 (~ ₹265,000)."
Crude oil price today
Crude oil prices fell for a second straight session amid expectations that US-Iran peace talks may resume, potentially easing supply concerns from the Middle East.
Brent crude futures fell 0.37% to $94.44 a barrel, after declining 4.6% in the previous session. US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 1.04% to $90.33, following a 7.9% fall in the previous session.
India VIX today
Volatility is expected to moderate following the recent spike. India VIX, which closed at 20.5 on Monday, is likely to soften toward the 18 level as fear subsides and market conditions stabilise. This easing in volatility is expected to have a direct impact on options pricing, with premiums likely to decline, though they may remain somewhat elevated relative to normal levels. For traders, this implies a shift in dynamics, with aggressive premium-expansion strategies becoming less favourable, necessitating a more measured approach.
FII-DII data
FIIs remained net sellers on Monday by offloading Indian shares worth ₹-1,983.18 crore, whereas DIIs bought shares worth ₹2,432.30 crore in the cash segment.
FIIs offloaded shares worth ₹346.30 crore in the Index Futures segment, and ₹34,725.52 crore in the Index Options segment.
Stock market today
Speaking on the outlook of the Nifty 50 today, Ajit Mishra, SVP - Research at Religare Broking, said the index tested its crucial support at the short-term moving average (20 DEMA) near the 23,500 mark and managed to inch higher. Sustaining above this level is critical for any further rebound; otherwise, the bias may turn negative to sideways.
"Traders are advised to maintain a cautious stance, focus on stock selection based on relative strength for long opportunities, and prefer a hedged approach to manage risk," Ajit Mishra added.
On the outlook for the Bank Nifty today, Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said the key benchmark index ended on a positive note, forming a long green candlestick on the daily chart, indicating buying interest from lower levels after recent weakness. The price action suggests a likely consolidation within a broad range of 54,500 to 56,200, where 54,500 is expected to act as strong support and 56,200 as a key resistance zone.
"A decisive breakout beyond this range could trigger a directional move in the index. In the near term, immediate support is placed at 55,000, while resistance is seen around the 56,000 mark," said Vatsal Bhuva of LKP Securities.
Stocks to buy today
Regarding stocks to buy today, market experts - Sumeet Bagadia of Choice Broking, Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager - Technical Research at Anand Rathi, and Shiju Koothupalakkal, Senior Manager - Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher, recommended these eight buy-or-sell stocks for intraday trading: Adani Energy Solutions, Maharashtra Seamless, Adani Ports, Bank of India, KFin Tech, HBL Engineering, Transformers and Rectifiers, and Sarda Energy.
Sumeet Bagadia's stock recommendations today
1] Adani Energy Solutions: Buy at ₹1175.30, Target ₹1270, Stop Loss ₹1134; and
2] Maharashtra Seamless: Buy at ₹628.75, Target ₹679, Stop Loss ₹606.
Ganesh Dongre's buy or sell stocks
3] Adani Ports: Buy at ₹1465, Target ₹1510, Stop Loss ₹1430;
4] Bank of India: Buy at ₹144, Target ₹155, Stop Loss ₹140;
5] KFin Tech: Buy at ₹900, Target ₹940, Stop Loss ₹880.
Shiju Koothupalakkal's intraday stocks for today
6] HBL Engineering: Buy at ₹751.50, Target ₹790, Stop Loss ₹734;
7] Transformers and Rectifiers: Buy at ₹291, Target ₹308, Stop Loss ₹285; and
8] Sarda Energy: Buy at ₹579, Target ₹610, Stop Loss ₹566.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
