The missiles are no longer in the news every day. But in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and other parts of the UAE, the conflict is still a topic of discussion. In February 2026, when the United States and Israel launched military strikes on Iran, many people in the Gulf expected it to be a temporary crisis. They thought it would dominate the news for a few weeks before the two sides signed a ceasefire agreement. Almost six months later, that has not happened. The conflict has gone through periods of calm and tension. Now, with US President Donald Trump threatening what he has called a “major attack on Iran,” the region is again watching closely.
This has raised an important question for the Dubai property market: what is happening to property prices, and are Indians still investing there? Financial Express Digital spoke to real estate experts to understand the ground situation there.
Caution first, then business as usual
Rizwan Sajan, Founder and Chairman of Danube Group, says buyers were careful when the conflict started. “There was definitely some caution in the beginning,” he told Financial Express (Digital). Indian buyers, like other investors, weighed in all the contingencies before putting their money into property. But six months later, Sajan says this caution has not led to a major fall in demand.
He points to Danube’s own projects as an example. The company is set to hand over 11 ready projects over the next 11 months, and new customers are still joining the tribe. Sajan believes Indians continue to see Dubai as a safe and well-connected market. It also offers good rental income and a tax system that is attractive compared with many other markets. He says these reasons have not changed because of the conflict.
Prince Dhariwal, Founder and Director of NavBharat Niwas, while acknowledging that buyers have become more careful, attributed the development to changing buyer behaviour rather than fear. Investors started spending more time checking the location, the developer, payment plans and possible rental income before buying.
He does not believe Indian demand has disappeared. “It has become more selective in place of completely inactive,” he says. An ANAROCK report cited in July 2026 showed that Dubai’s residential transactions in the first half of 2026 were around AED 225.7 billion, down 16% from the same period last year. However, average prices rose about 6% to around AED 1,900 per square foot. Indians made up 22% of Dubai’s foreign residential buyers in 2025, showing that they remain an important part of the market.
Porush Jhunjhunwala, CEO of Banke International Properties, says geopolitical conflicts usually prompt investors to take more time to study the market before making decisions. This was especially true for people buying property abroad for the first time. But he says taking a pause is not the same as leaving the market.
Dubai Land Department data showed that Dubai recorded 86,005 real estate transactions worth AED 286.43 billion in the first half of 2026. This included homes, buildings and land. Ready-to-move properties were the biggest part of this activity, with more than AED 146.7 billion across 27,200 transactions. Jhunjhunwala says this shows that institutional investors and wealthy buyers continued to invest because they still believe in the UAE economy.
Payment plans, not panic discounts
Financial Express also asked the three experts whether developers were cutting property prices to attract worried buyers. All three gave the same basic answer, no. However, developers are offering buyers more flexible payment options.
Sajan says Danube’s 1% monthly payment plan was introduced before the conflict and was not created because of the current situation. “Such offerings are part of a long-term strategy to enhance affordability rather than a response to recent geopolitical events,” he says.
Dhariwal says buyers can negotiate more in some parts of the market, but large discounts are still not common. The situation is “highly project-specific.” Developers are more likely to offer longer payment periods, payment plans after the property is handed over or fee waivers than cut the actual price.
The Central Bank of the UAE kept its base rate at 3.65% on July 29, 2026. Dhariwal says this means the conflict cannot be blamed for a general rise in borrowing costs. He says buyers should look at the complete cost of buying a property, including financing costs, expected rental income and how easily they may be able to sell it later. A “10% discount” does not always mean a property is a good deal.
Jhunjhunwala says the market is moving from sales based mainly on discounts to sales based on the overall value of a property. Developers such as Emaar, DAMAC, Nakheel, Sobha, Binghatti and Aldar continued to launch major projects in 2026. He sees this as a sign that developers remain confident about future demand.
He also says mortgage rates are mainly following global interest rate trends rather than the regional conflict. Insurance costs have increased slightly in some areas because of wider risk concerns, but he says this has had only a limited effect on people buying homes.
A safe haven, but not a blind one
Do Indians still consider the UAE a safe place to invest? The answer is not as simple as yes or no. Sajan says Dubai has a special place in the minds of many Indian families. For them, it is almost like a second home rather than just another foreign market. Years of stable rules, good infrastructure and attractive returns have built this confidence. Some investors may take longer to make a decision, he says, but serious investors continue to look at the basic strength of the market rather than only the latest headlines.
Dhariwal has a more cautious view. He says Indian investors are now looking at the UAE through a “risk-aware lens” instead of automatically considering it a safe market. Some investors are waiting to see what happens to oil prices, flights, tourism and the wider regional economy before investing.
However, the numbers show that confidence is returning. ANAROCK’s H1 2026 assessment said Dubai’s residential market remained strong despite regional tensions. Dubai Land Department data showed that real estate transactions in the first quarter of 2026 reached AED 252 billion, up 31% from a year earlier. Foreign investment was worth AED 148.35 billion, up 26%.
Dhariwal says no international property market is completely free of risk. For a buyer today, the more useful question is not “is Dubai safe” but “does this specific property still make sense if growth slows.”
Jhunjhunwala says Indian buyers are also looking beyond whether property prices will rise. They are considering rental income, taxes, the Golden Visa, diversifying their investments across different markets, currency stability and planning for their families.
He says the growth of the Golden Visa programme, better digital services through the Dubai Land Department, stronger escrow rules and continued infrastructure development have helped make the UAE attractive to investors.
Some buyers are still waiting before they invest. But experienced investors know that Dubai’s economy is now much more diverse than it was 10 years ago. It depends not only on oil but also on tourism, financial services, businesses and population growth.
Prices: up, down, or simply catching their breath
The biggest difference between the three experts comes when they talk about property prices. Have prices risen or fallen since the war began?
Sajan has the most positive view. He says this could actually be a good time to buy. He expects prices to continue rising because construction costs are increasing due to disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, rental income in Dubai remains higher than in many major cities worldwide. He believes buyer interest will continue to grow.
Dhariwal looks at the numbers differently. According to ANAROCK data reported in July, average Dubai residential prices rose about 6% year-on-year to around AED 1,900 per square foot in H1 2026.
However, the total value of transactions fell 16% to around AED 225.7 billion. This means that while fewer or smaller transactions may have taken place, property prices themselves did not fall in the same way.
Dubai Land Department data also showed AED 252 billion in total real estate transactions in Q1 2026, with investment worth AED 173 billion. Dhariwal says this shows that the market never completely stopped.
He believes buyers are still interested but are now much more careful. They are enquiring about rental income, the developer’s track record, new residential projects and whether they will be able to sell the property later. He sees this change as healthy for the market.
Jhunjhunwala has a view between the other two. Industry reports showed that residential prices fell by around 4–7% in some parts of the market between February and April 2026. Transaction volumes also fell from the very high levels seen in 2025.
But he says this does not mean the market is weak. Demand remains strong for projects by trusted developers in well-connected areas. Luxury waterfront properties and branded residences are still attracting buyers from Dubai and other countries.
Major developers also continued launching large projects during this period. Emaar launched new master communities, Aldar expanded in Abu Dhabi, DAMAC introduced luxury projects and Binghatti continued its branded partnerships. Jhunjhunwala says this shows that both developers and buyers still have confidence in the market.
“We believe that a minor hiccup cannot be termed as a market correction,” he says. He describes the current period as a move from a very fast growth phase towards a healthier and more sustainable market.
Indian buyers, who are among the biggest foreign investor groups in the UAE, are still positively exploring the market. They are simply being more careful before making a decision.
Whether this is a sign of strength or a change in the market depends on how it is viewed. However, Sajan, Dhariwal and Jhunjhunwala agree on one thing: Dubai’s property story is not being written by missiles alone.
Written by PV Anjana
Source: FinancialExpress
Disclaimer: Real estate investments are subject to market risks. The views and data presented in this article belong to external industry experts and official sources and do not constitute financial or investment advice from Financial Express
