19/02/26, Did Trump tariffs really slash US Trade deficit by 78%? Here's what actually happening

• Imports surged in January and March ahead of new duties, pushing the deficit to a record $140.5 billion in March.
• After reciprocal tariffs of at least 10%, and much higher rates on countries including China, took effect in April, imports fell sharply.
• Customs revenue reached $264 billion in 2025, up about $185 billion from a year earlier, helping trim the annual budget deficit to $1.67 trillion.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday touted a 78% decline in the U.S. trade deficit under his tariff regime, citing a striking figure that hinges on a selective reading of turbulent monthly trade data.

In a Truth Social post, Trump said, "The United States trade deficit has been reduced by 78% because of the tariffs being charged to other companies and countries. It will go into positive territory during this year, for the first time in many decades. Thank you for your attention to this matter!"

Trump's Math Behind His Claim

The U.S. trade deficit widened to a near-record $131.4 billion in January 2025, according to Commerce Department data, as companies rushed to import goods ahead of sweeping tariffs promised by the Trump administration. By October 2025, the monthly deficit had narrowed to about $29.4 billion, the smallest since 2009, marking a pullback in imports.



A comparison between January's $131.4 billion deficit and October's $29.4 billion gap yields a drop of about 78%, a calculation that appears to underpin Trump's claim. However, the comparison pairs a peak in import front-loading ahead of tariffs with a subsequent decline in imports, rather than reflecting the full-year trade picture.

Through November 2025, the year-to-date trade deficit stood at roughly $833 billion, which is 4.1% higher than the same period in 2024.

Why Monthly Trade Numbers Swung So Sharply

The large swings in 2025 were closely tied to tariff timing. In January and March, companies accelerated imports, particularly pharmaceuticals, industrial supplies and gold, ahead of anticipated tariff increases. March alone saw the trade gap widen to a record $140.5 billion as businesses raced to secure goods before new duties were announced.

In early April, Trump unveiled reciprocal tariffs of at least 10% on all exporters to the U.S., with higher rates on about 60 nations. China faced tariffs of well above 50% on many goods, while the European Union, Japan, and Vietnam were also targeted with elevated duties.

Following the April rollout, imports dropped sharply. In April, the trade deficit narrowed by a record 55.5% from the prior month as imports fell the most on record. By August, the monthly deficit had narrowed to $59.6 billion, and by October it had fallen further to $29.4 billion, signaling the post-tariff import slowdown.

Gold imports, in particular, distorted the picture. Heavy inflows of non-monetary gold helped push the U.S. trade deficit to a record $140.5 billion in March. When those shipments reversed, the monthly gap narrowed sharply, falling to $59.6 billion in August and $29.4 billion in October.

What The Full-Year Picture Shows

Even with October's drop to $29.4 billion, the cumulative figures tell a different story. Through November 2025, the cumulative deficit reached about $833 billion, up 4.1% from the same period in 2024.

Bilateral balances moved sharply month on month: the goods deficit with China narrowed to $24.8 billion in March and fell further in June, while the shortfall with Ireland more than doubled to $29.3 billion in March before retreating as pharmaceutical imports cooled.

The narrowing in specific months also boosted short-term GDP calculations. Net exports shaved almost 5 percentage points off first-quarter GDP as imports surged, before flipping to contribute about 5 percentage points to growth in the second quarter as imports fell back and the monthly trade gap narrowed.

Higher Tariffs Narrow Budget Gap

Tariffs have also increased customs revenue. For calendar year 2025, tariff revenue totaled $264 billion, up roughly $185 billion from the previous year, helping narrow the federal budget deficit to $1.67 trillion, the smallest in three years.

However, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that higher tariffs could reduce deficits by about $3 trillion over the next decade. Trump's 2025 tax law and immigration policies are projected to increase deficits by $4.7 trillion and $500 billion, respectively. Net outlays on interest are also projected to surge, pushing total deficits higher over time.

The CBO has warned that the U.S. remains on an "unsustainable" fiscal path, with deficits projected to exceed 5% of GDP for years to come.

However, legal uncertainty still hangs over the durability of the tariff regime itself. The Supreme Court has twice declined to issue a ruling on the legality of President Donald Trump's tariffs after hearing oral arguments in October and November 2025. The court has scheduled Feb. 20, as well as Feb. 24 and 25, as upcoming opinion days where justices may finally release their decision.

How Did Stocktwits Users React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment toward the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) was 'neutral' amid 'high' message volume, while sentiment toward the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was 'neutral' amid 'normal' message volume.

One user said, "The idea that this administration won't admit Americans pay the tariffs is the most 1984 esq thing this country has ever witnessed from our government."

Another user suggested that an upcoming Supreme Court opinion day could focus on Trump's reciprocal tariffs.

So far this year, DIA has outperformed, up 3.5%, compared with SPY up 0.6% and QQQ down 1.4%.

19/02/26, Shares of Netweb Technologies climbed for a third straight session on Thursday, February 19. In the last three trading sessions Netweb Technologies shares have jumped as much as 21%, data from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) showed

In intraday deals, Netweb Technologies surged as much as 9.65% to hit a high of ₹3,700 amid spike in trading activity.

Netweb Technologies shares came under buying interest after the company on Wednesday informed exchanges that it has launched a 'Make in India' AI supercomputing systems powered by NVIDIA.

In its press release, Netweb said the company has "powered a new era of computing in India by introducing one of the world's most powerful AI infrastructure solutions - a 'Make in India' AI supercomputer, the Tyrone Camarero GB200 system - and the petascale personal compute system, the Tyrone Camarero Spark."

"Netweb today announces a new class of AI computing for India with the launch of Tyrone Camarero Spark, which is one of the world's smallest AI supercomputers, delivering NVIDIA's AI stack in a compact desktop form factor," the press release added.

It combines NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs, NVIDIA Grace CPUs, NVIDIA Networking, NVIDIA CUDA-X libraries, and NVIDIA AI software stack, accelerating agentic and physical AI development to address the requirements of millions of AI developers in India.

The system, Netweb said, packs a petaflop of AI performance and 128GB of unified memory into a compact desktop form factor-based system, helping a huge customer base of AI developers in India to run inference on AI models with up to 200 billion parameters and locally fine-tune models of up to 70 billion parameters.

Netweb Technologies Q3 earnings

Netweb Technologies last month reported a net profit of ₹79 crore in the third quarter of current financial year, marking a surge of 2.43 times or 143% from ₹30 crore in the same period last year.

The company's revenue in December quarter jumped 141% to ₹805 crore compared with ₹334 crore in the year-ago period.

Meanwhile, Netweb Technologies shares were witnessing higher than usual trading activity. On the BSE, as many as 3.45 lakh shares changed hands compared with an average of 1.64 lakh shares traded daily in the past two weeks.

On the NSE, a total of 45.65 lakh shares changed hands.

As of 10:46 am, Netweb Technologies shares traded 6.3% higher at ₹3,589, outperforming the NIFTY 500 index which was down 0.35%.

source: Upstox

Disclaimer: This article is purely for informational purposes and should not be considered investment advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

19/02/26, Hindustan Unilever Ltd

HUL share price: Shares of Hindustan Unilever Ltd, a key fast-moving consumer goods player, were trading in green on Thursday, February 19, after the company announced that it will invest ₹2,000 crore to enhance manufacturing capacity in fast-growing premium categories across beauty and wellbeing and home care segments.

The stock was up 0.16% to ₹2,327.20 apiece on the National Stock Exchange at 9:18 am. Its market capitalisation stood at ₹5,47,149.32 crore.

The company's board on February 18 approved the proposed investment, according to an exchange filing. The investment will occur over a period of two years across multiple locations.

This proposed investment is in line with the company's strategy of focusing on fewer, larger bets and strengthening its presence in high-growth demand spaces, including premium skin care, hair care, personal care and home care liquids, said HUL, which owns popular brands like Surf Excel, Rin, Domex, Vim, Cif, Wheel and Comfort in the home care segment.

The company will leverage advanced automation and digital technologies, said HUL, adding that the capacity expansion is expected to improve supply chain efficiency and agility.

This will also allow HUL, which operates with brands such as Lakmé, Pond's, Dove, Vaseline, Glow & Lovely, Sunsilk, among others, in the beauty & wellbeing segments, to have a 'faster response' to evolving consumer needs.

"The initiative is aimed at building a future-ready manufacturing network that can effectively support emerging channels and high-growth formats," said HUL.

CEO and Managing Director Priya Nair said this investment reflects HUL's strategic focus on scaling our brands and creating categories of the future to meet evolving consumer needs.

"It also underscores our commitment to building a resilient, technology-enabled supply chain that delivers superior value to consumers," she said.

HUL is the Indian subsidiary of the British multinational consumer goods company Unilever. Globally, India is the second-biggest market for Unilever after the US, contributing around 12%-14% of total sales.

source: Upstox 

19/02/26, For Midterm to Long-term holding

 

19/02/26, Market Prediction

 The Indian equity markets are set to enter Thursday's trading session with a wave of renewed optimism after a third consecutive day of gains today, February 18. While IT stocks have faced some AI-driven turbulence, the broader market strength-led by metals, PSU banks, and financials-has set a bullish stage for the upcoming session.

The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 283.29 points, or 0.34 per cent, to settle at 83,734.25 in a volatile trade. During the day, it touched an intraday high of 83,770.05. On the other hand, the 50-share NSE Nifty gained 93.95 points, or 0.37 per cent, to close at 25,819.35.

According to Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst, "On 18th February 2026, the BSE Sensex closed higher at 83,734.25, gaining around 283 points (+0.34%), as Indian equity markets extended their rally for a third consecutive session. The advance was driven by broad-based buying in financials, metals, and PSU banks, which offset continued weakness in IT stocks."

"The Nifty50 also ended in positive territory near 25,819.35, reflecting resilient investor sentiment and sustained participation across key sectors," Tailor added.

Sensex Prediction for Thursday, February 19 by experts

Sensex Prediction for Thursday, February 19 by Hitesh Tailor

Tailor noted that while the "buy-on-dips" strategy remains favoured, investors should stay mindful of specific demand and supply zones.

Technical levels to watch on Thursday

He said, "On the technical front, the index maintained strength above recent support levels and displayed resilience amid volatile trade. The 83,200-83,300 zone acted as a crucial demand area where dip-buying interest emerged, reinforcing underlying support, while the 84,150-84,250 range continues to stand as the immediate resistance band that could cap further rebound attempts due to short-term profit-taking and supply pressure."

• Immediate Support: 83,500 (Intraday) / 83,200-83,300 (Structural)
• Immediate Resistance: 84,000
• Secondary Resistance: 84,150-84,250

On the market bias for Thursday, Tailor stated, "With a decisive upside close supported by broad participation across defensive and value segments, the near-term trend remains cautiously positive, favouring a buy-on-dips approach as long as the defined support range continues to hold intact."

Sensex Prediction for Thursday, February 19 by Vipin Dixena

SEBI-registered analyst, Vipin Dixena, stated, "On the daily chart, SENSEX is stabilizing after the recent correction and trading above its 50-day EMA, confirming further upside momentum."

On the Intraday chart, Dixena said Sensex has continued its recovery and is sustaining above the breakout of the 83,600 resistance level. "SENSEX is holding above the short-term moving averages, indicating short-term bullish momentum. RSI is near 64, suggesting strength," the analyst added.

"The next resistance for SENSEX would be 84,000, and immediate support would be 83,500. Overall intraday structure remains positive with higher highs and higher lows," he concluded.

Sensex gainers and losers on Wednesday, Feb 18

Among the Sensex firms, Tata Steel, ITC, Axis Bank, Reliance Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Hindustan Unilever, State Bank of India, UltraTech Cement, Trent, Sun Pharmaceuticals, and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the major gainers.

On the other hand, Eternal, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, HCL Technologies, Adani Ports, Tata Consultancy Services, IndiGo, Asian Paints, Maruti Suzuki India, PowerGrid and HDFC Bank were the laggards.

source:EconomicTimes

(Disclaimer: The above article is meant for informational purposes only, and should not be considered as any investment advice. We suggests its readers to consult their financial advisors before making any money-related decisions.)

19/02/26, (GOLD) which country is slling and which country is buying

India gold reserves: Gold has emerged as strategic asset in the past few years. largely immune to fluctuations in global markets and geopolitical tensions, prompting major countries to purchase large amounts of gold, though many smaller nations have also sold significant volumes of the precious metal due to various reasons.

Which countries bought most gold?

According to World Gold Council data, 15 countries have added a whopping 2,000 tonnes to their gold reserves since 2020 with China topping the list, adding 357.1 tonnes of gold in the last five years.

Interestingly, Poland emerged as the second-largest buyer of gold after China, purchasing 314.6 tonnes of the precious yellow metal since 2020, followed by Turkey (251.8 tonnes), India (245.3 tonnes), and Brazil (105.1 tonnes), according to the World Gold Council report.

As per latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), India's gold reserves have surged to a record high of 880.3 tonnes, worth $123.476 billion as of February 10, 2026.

Who sold most gold since 2020?

According to the report, Philippines, Kazakhstan, Sri Lanka, Germany, and Mongolia emerged as the largest gold sellers over the past five years, selling 65.2 tonnes, 52.4 tonnes, 19.1 tonnes, 16.3 tonnes, and 15.9 tonnes, respectively.

Tajikistan, Euro Area, Colombia, Finland, Curacao and Saint Martin, Solomon Islands, Suriname, Malta, Ethiopia and Switzerland have also sold significant amounts of gold since 2020, the report said.

Among the gold-selling countries, Philippines, Kazakhstan, and Sri Lanka, have witnessed the largest declines in their gold reserves, and sold their gold due to domestic uncertainties and a failure to maintain economic balance, the World Gold Council report noted.

Which countries have largest gold reserves?

According to latest data, the United States has the largest gold reserves on the planet at 8,133 tonnes, followed by Germany (3,351 tonnes), Italy (2,451.6 tonnes), France (2,437 tonnes) and Russia (2,300 tonnes).

China sits at the 6th spot with 2,200 tonnes of gold, followed by Switzerland is at 7th with 1,040 tonnes, while India has eight highest gold reserves in the world at 880 tonnes. Japan ranks 9th with 846 tonnes and Turkey is at 10th place with 614 tonnes.

Notably, gold prices have surged a whopping 230% since 2020, prompting countries and their central banks to purchase high volumes of the precious metal to shore up against global uncertainties.

source: News24

19/02/26, Arm shares rose more than 1% in premarket trading on Wednesday (February 18) following the disclosure that Nvidia has sold its entire stake in the British semiconductor firm, signaling investor confidence in Arm's ability to grow independently.

The move marks a dramatic reversal for Nvidia, which attempted a $40 billion acquisition of Arm in 2021-the largest semiconductor deal in history-which ultimately collapsed. Analysts suggest Nvidia's exit removes uncertainty around Arm's strategic direction while freeing the graphics chip giant to redeploy capital into AI-focused initiatives.

Financial details of the sale

At the end of Q3 2025, Nvidia held 1.1 million shares of Arm valued at $155.8 million. SEC filings confirm that the company has sold all of these shares. Arm remains majority-owned by Japan's SoftBank.

Nvidia's strategic outlook

While Nvidia has not disclosed the use of proceeds from the sale, the company has been actively investing in AI startups, building out data centers, and exploring acquisitions in the networking space. Analysts expect the freed capital could support these initiatives without diluting shareholders or taking on debt.

AI partnerships boost Nvidia stock

Nvidia's stock climbed 2.3% after Meta Platforms announced a long-term deal to use millions of Nvidia chips and other equipment for its AI data centers. CEO Jensen Huang highlighted Nvidia's dominant position in AI computing, stating, "No one deploys AI at Meta's scale."

Wall Street rises on tech gains

Wall Street ended higher on Wednesday, lifted by strong performances in technology stocks, including Nvidia, Amazon, and other AI-related heavyweights, following earlier concerns about high valuations and revenue growth timelines.

-S&P 500 climbed 0.56% to 6,881.31 points.

-Nasdaq Composite gained 0.78% to 22,753.64 points, after briefly rising as much as 1.4%.

-Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.26% to 49,662.66 points.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Nvidia led the gains, rising 1.6% after announcing a multi-year deal with Meta Platforms to supply millions of AI chips. Meta shares added 0.6%.

Other tech-related stocks benefiting from AI demand included Sandisk, Western Digital, and Seagate Technology, which climbed between 1.7% and 4.4%. Amazon gained 1.8%, while Microsoft rose 0.7%.

source: mint

18/02/26, Market Data at 4:30pm

 

18/02/26, Tata Steel

28/02/26, Stock Recommendations

 

18/02/26, Indian equity markets are expected to open on a steady note on Wednesday, 18 February 2026, as investors maintain a cautiously optimistic stance ahead of key domestic and global cues.

Market participants are watching developments related to the Federal Reserve, upcoming macroeconomic data releases and ongoing geopolitical discussions, including US-Iran developments.

Stock Market Outlook Today, 18 February 2026: Sensex, Nifty Prediction

By the end of Tuesday's session, the Sensex advanced 173.81 points (0.21%) to close at 83,450.96, while the Nifty added 42.65 points (0.17%) to settle at 25,725.40. Sectoral buying was primarily seen in PSU Banks, IT, and FMCG stocks, whereas Metals and Realty faced selling pressure.

Broader market participation was also positive, with the Nifty Midcap index rising 0.27% and the Smallcap index gaining 0.56%, indicating selective interest beyond frontline stocks.

Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said, "Nifty recovered sharply after opening lower and gaining nearly 200 points from the day's low to close at 25,725, up 42 points (+0.2%). The recovery was led by buying interest in IT shares, helping the benchmark regain lost ground. Broader markets remained firm, with Midcap and Smallcap indices advancing 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively."

He added, "PSU Banks emerged as the top gainers, climbing 2.1%. IT stocks extended gains for the second consecutive session after a recent correction, supported by Infosys' strategic partnership with Anthropic, easing concerns around AI-led disruption."

Defence stocks gained 1.3% ahead of the anticipated discussion between French President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Narendra Modi on additional Rafale acquisitions. On the downside, metal stocks came under pressure, dragging the Nifty Metal index down 1%. Overall, markets are likely to remain firm with a positive bias, tracking global cues and domestic sectoral developments."

Nifty Prediction Today, 18 February 2026

Bajaj Broking analysts noted, "The index extended yesterday's bullish momentum with follow-through buying, closing decisively above its 21-day and 50-day EMAs while also filling the recent gap on the daily chart. This indicates improving short-term sentiment and renewed buying interest at lower levels. In the near term, the Nifty is likely to trade within the 25,500-26,000 range and is currently positioned near the midpoint, reflecting a balanced tug-of-war between buyers and sellers."

They added, "Immediate support is seen at 25,640, followed by 25,580, which may cushion minor pullbacks. On the upside, resistance is placed at 25,780, with the next hurdle at 25,840. A decisive breakout above these levels could trigger further upside within the broader range. Overall, the market structure remains sideways as the index consolidates following the recent correction, suggesting a base formation before the next meaningful move."

Bank Nifty Outlook

"Bank Nifty outperformed the broader market, showing notable relative strength and breaking above its recent consolidation range," Bajaj Broking said. "This confirms follow-through buying from yesterday's bullish momentum and signals improving breadth within the segment. In the near term, the index is expected to trade with a positive bias as long as it holds above the breakout zone."

They further stated, "Bank Nifty is trading above key moving averages, reinforcing the strength of the prevailing momentum. Immediate resistance is at 61,500, followed by 61,800, where some profit booking may emerge. On the downside, support has shifted higher to 60,800 and 60,500, indicating buyers are stepping in at elevated levels."

Report by Harshika Yadav of goodreturns.in

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations expressed are solely those of the individual analysts or entities and do not reflect the views of us. All information is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should be independently verified from licensed financial advisors before making any investment decisions.

18/02/26, Shares of Infosys are likely to remain in the spotlight on Wednesday after the IT services major unveiled a strategic collaboration with US-based AI research firm Anthropic.

The announcement, aimed at accelerating enterprise adoption of next-generation artificial intelligence tools, sparked renewed investor interest and lifted the stock across global exchanges. Infosys shares rose over 3 per cent in the domestic markets following the announcement.

According to the company's announcement, the partnership brings together Infosys Topaz, the company's AI-first suite of solutions, and Anthropic's Claude family of models, including Claude Code, to build industry-specific AI agents capable of handling complex, multi-step workflows.

The collaboration will begin with the telecommunications sector, where a dedicated Anthropic Center of Excellence will be established to modernise network operations and overhaul customer lifecycle management.

Over time, the alliance will extend to financial services, manufacturing, engineering, and software development, sectors that demand precision, regulatory compliance, and resilient automation.

• Telecom: modernising network operations, improving customer lifecycle flows.
• Financial services: faster risk detection, enhanced assessment, and personalized interactions.
• Manufacturing/engineering: accelerated product design, simulation, and shorter R&D timelines.
• Software development: faster delivery cycles supported by Claude Code and automated testing.

Infosys' announcement comes at a time when global software and IT services stocks have faced headwinds due to rapid advances in AI-driven coding tools. Several major technology stocks have seen notable declines last week as markets weigh the impact of automation. Infosys itself had been under pressure before Tuesday's rebound.

Infosys CEO Salil Parekh described the partnership as a "strategic leap" that could help organizations become "more intelligent, resilient, and responsible," adding that the focus extends well beyond efficiency improvements toward deep industry transformation through domain expertise and frontier AI.

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei echoed this sentiment, emphasizing the importance of domain knowledge when deploying AI in tightly regulated industries. Infosys developers are already using Claude Code internally, positioning the company to scale these capabilities across client environments.

Market indices were broadly positive on the day of the announcement, with Infosys emerging as one of the top performers on the BSE IT index. The stock climbed as high as 4.06 per cent intraday, reflecting investors' confidence in the company's ability to monetize AI adoption across global enterprises.

source:EconomicTimes

(Disclaimer: The above article is meant for informational purposes only, and should not be considered as any investment advice.)

18/02/26, Gold Rate in India: Gold and silver prices in India witnessed a sharp decline during Tuesday's trading session, mirroring weakness in global commodity markets.

The pullback in precious metals came as the US dollar regained strength, with investors reassessing the US Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook. As market participants gear up for Wednesday's session on February 18, here's a closer look at the expected trend in gold and silver prices.

Gold and silver rates in India saw a sharp surge in January, which was followed by a sharper correction. The recent price correction has brought an attractive buying opportunity for investors.

Gold Rate in India

The price of 24 karat gold in India declined by Rs 224 per gram to Rs 15,420 per gram on Tuesday, February 17. The rate of 22 karat gold in India fell by Rs 205 per gram to Rs 14,135 per gram. The rate of 18 karat gold in India dipped by Rs 168 per gram to Rs 11,565 per gram.

The rate of 24 karat gold in India surged to its all time high of Rs 17,80,000 per 100 grams on January 29, as per Goodreturns data. Since then, gold prices have declined by Rs 2,46,500 per 100 grams to Rs 15,42,000 per 100 grams, as on February 17.

Silver Rate in India

The price of silver in India saw a massive volatility during the trading session. Silver rate in India fell by Rs 8 per gram to Rs 260 per gram on Tuesday, February 18. Which means that per kilogram of silver was priced at Rs 2,60,000.

Gold, Silver Price Outlook

Gold and silver are likely to trade in range-bound manner on Wednesday, February 18. The recent price correction in gold appears to be more of profit taking and repositioning rather than a structural shift in bullish momentum.

"The medium-term outlook still supports the potential for gold to regain bullish momentum and move back towards its record highs if key macro drivers continue to be favourable.

Markets are increasingly pricing future monetary easing across major economies, and any clear indication towards rate cuts would lower real yields and weaken the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, elevated sovereign debt levels, and continued central-bank diversification into bullion provides ongoing demand," stated Ross Maxwell, Global Strategy Operations Lead, VT Markets.

"Gold continue to hover around $5,000/oz as dollar strength offset support from softer yields, while China's tighter curbs on speculative futures trading and holiday closures reduced volumes and near-term direction. Markets now focus on upcoming U.S. data releases, including Federal Reserve minutes, industrial output figures, and the PCE price index, which could shape expectations for policy and bullion trends," explained Manav Modi Commodities Analyst Motilal Oswal Financial services Ltd.

Report by Sharmila Bhadoria of  goodreturns.in

Disclaimer:The views and recommendations expressed are solely those of the individual analysts or entities and do not reflect the views of us.  We do not guarantee, endorse or take responsibility for the accuracy, completeness or reliability of any content, nor do we provide any investment advice or solicit the purchase or sale of securities. All information is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should be independently verified from licensed financial advisors before making any investment decisions.

17/02/26, market fell in second half

The equity benchmarks pared early gains in volatile trade on Tuesday, with the Sensex slipping over 100 points from the day's high and the broader Nifty hovering below the 25,750 level on weekly expiry day.

The Sensex had earlier climbed 246.07 points or 0.29 percent to touch an intra-day high of 83,523.22. The Nifty also rose above the 25,700 mark to 25,730.35 in early trade.

However, the benchmarks later gave up most of the gains amid volatile movements. At around 2:15 pm, the BSE barometer was quoting at 83,315.80, up 28.57 points or 0.034 percent. The Nifty traded at 25,671.60, down 11.15 points or 0.043 percent.

Key factors behind market pullback

1) FII selling: Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 972.13 crore on Monday. Sustained selling by overseas investors typically weighs on domestic equities as it leads to outflows and impacts overall market sentiment.

2) Weak global cues: Asian markets were largely weak. Japan's Nikkei 225 index traded nearly 1 percent lower. US futures were down, while oil prices were mixed. Gold and silver prices also declined. Weak economic data released on Monday dampened sentiment in Tokyo. Shares of SoftBank Group fell 6.2 percent, dragging indices lower. The Nikkei 225 was down 1 percent at 56,237.65 by midday. European markets had ended on a mixed note on Monday.

3) Nifty weekly expiry: Tuesday marks the weekly expiry of Nifty derivatives contracts. Such sessions typically witness heightened volatility due to rollovers and position adjustments by traders, leading to sharp intra-day swings.

4) Metal stocks under pressure: Shares of metal firms dropped, pushing the Nifty Metal Index  down around 2 percent. Hindustan Copper shares were the top loser on the index, falling more than 4 percent to trade at Rs 551.25 apiece. This came as copper prices plunged, with red metal's futures with February expiry falling around 2 percent on MCX.

Technical view

Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited, said buyers may appear hesitant early in the day following Monday's sharp rise into the 25,690–25,750 zone.

He said the bullish engulfing candlestick formation keeps hopes of further upside intact and advised waiting for dips to the 25,620–25,570 range. On the upside, the 25,750 region is likely to act as a hurdle, while 25,900 appears achievable, he added.

source: moneycontrol 

17/02/26, Market Intraday News

The benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty dropped in early trade on Tuesday, but buying in IT shares helped the markets recover the lost ground.

The Sensex dropped 289.72 points to 82,987.43 in early trade, while the borader Nifty declined 112.45 points to 25,570.30.

Later, both benchmark indices bounced back and were trading in the green. At around 11:50 am, the BSE benchmark quoted 269.28 points or 0.32 percent higher at 83,546.43. The Nifty traded at 25,734.30, up 51.55 points or 0.2 percent.

Infosys,  ITC, HCL Technologies, Asian Paints, Tech Mahindra, Bharat Electronics Ltd, Tata Consultancy Services, IndiGo, Sun Pharmaceuticals, and Larsen & Toubro were the major gainers in the Sensex pack.

On the other hand, Eternal, Tata Steel, ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Reliance Industries, UltraTech Cement, Bajaj Finance, Axis Bank, and Mahindra & Mahindra were the laggards.

Key factors behind market rise

1) Buying in IT shares: Shares of IT companies  extended gains for the second straight session after witnessing a sharp decline earlier. Heavyweight Infosys announced a strategic partnership with Anthropic, at a time when concerns around AI-led disruption in the sector had weighed on sentiment.

2) India Vix declines: The India VIX, the volatility gauge, declined over 2 percent to 13.02. A fall in the index indicates easing market volatility and improves investor risk appetite.

3) Rupee rises: The rupee appreciated 1 paisa to 90.73 against the US dollar in early trade, supported by lower global crude oil prices. However, a stronger dollar overseas and foreign institutional investor outflows limited the gains, according to forex traders. At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit opened at 90.72 against the US dollar and slipped to 90.73, up 1 paisa from its previous close.

4) Crude rises: Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, slipped 0.41 percent to USD 68.37 per barrel. Lower crude prices are positive for India, which imports a major portion of its oil requirements.

Technical view

Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited, said buyers may appear cautious in early trade following Monday's sharp rise towards the 25,690–25,750 zone.

He said the bullish engulfing candlestick pattern on the charts supports the possibility of further upside, though dips towards the 25,620–25,570 range could attract buying.

On the upside, the 25,750 level may act as a hurdle, while 25,900 appears achievable, he added.

Report by Paras Bist of Network18 

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment expeare their own and not those of us. We advises investors  to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

17/02/26, SENSEX & NIFTY50 graphs

 SENSEX:

NIFTY50:

17/02/26, EconomicTimes Report

Equity strategists expect the markets to remain in a consolidation zone as the Nifty struggles to break past key resistance levels amid persistent weakness in IT stocks.

"Before we see any kind of turnaround after this price-wise correction, we are likely to see some time-wise correction as well, where the stocks or the index itself would consolidate within a range before turning up. So I think one should not be in a hurry to do bottom fishing at current levels," says Ruchit Jain, Technical analyst, Angel Broking

He further highlighted that the index is likely to trade within a broad range, with selling emerging near 26,000 and buying support around 25,200-25,400. While IT continues to face pressure from fear-driven derating, he sees resilient pockets in the market, including strong traction in PSU stocks, select pharma counters, and capital-market-linked names, driving sector-specific opportunities despite the lack of a clear index trend.

"We witnessed a resistance around 26,000 mark, during last week the index was able unable to surpass that 26,000 mark on the other side if you see on the downside this 25,400 - 25,200 is that gap area which was created on the day when the India - US trade deal was announced also the 200 DMA came in this range, 26,000 to 25,200 broadly."

He further added that "we are trading within this range where you know any utmost towards the resistances are witnessing selling action and down moves are likely to witness buying interest. So on the index front, we still believe that markets would see some consolation."

Nitin Raheja of Motilal Oswal said, there is extreme fear and apprehension around what AI. "Some of it is real, but a lot of it is going to be happening over a period of time and not show up tomorrow or the day after. In the meantime, these are companies that have very strong cash flows, they're trading at good dividend yields, cash flow yields."

He added that, over the long term, the growth rates of these companies come into question if they don't change their business model.

(Disclaimer: The above article is meant for informational purposes only, and should not be considered as any investment advice.)

17/02/26, GIFT Nifty February 2026 futures were down 43 points, suggesting a negative start for the Nifty50 today.

Institutional Flows:

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth Rs 972.13 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1,666.98 crore in the Indian equity market on 16 February 2026, provisional data showed.

The FIIs have sold shares worth Rs 2,345.69 crore in the cash market so far in February (till 13 February 2026). This follows their cash sales of Rs 41,435.22 crore in January 2026 and Rs 34,349.62 crore in December.

Global Markets:

Asian markets traded carefully on Tuesday.

Mainland Chinese, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea markets were closed on Tuesday for Lunar New Year holidays. U.S markets were shut on Monday for Presidents' Day.

Japan's weakening economy remained in focus on Tuesday, one day after much softer than expected GDP numbers.

The country on Monday reported its economy grew an annualised 0.2% in the fourth quarter, far below the widely reported gain forecast of 1.6% as government spending dragged on activity. In today's session, the Japanese yen strengthened 0.15% against the greenback to 153.28 per dollar.

The weak figures highlight the challenges ahead for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and should support her push for more aggressive fiscal stimulus, media reports said.

The Bank of Japan next meets on rates in March, with traders forecasting only a slim chance for a hike. Widely reported polls in the media suggest that investors expect the central bank to wait until July before tightening policy again.

Meanwhile, oil saw some price gains as investors looked ahead to the U.S and Iran nuclear negotiations that are scheduled to being in Geneva later in the day.

The higher volatility in crude was triggered by the latest drill that was reportedly held by Iran's Revolutionary Guards in the Hormuz Strait on Monday. The passage accounts for about 20% of global oil shipments.

Domestic Market:

Benchmark equity indices finished firmly higher on Monday, buoyed by robust buying in banks and financial counters. The Nifty reversed its two-day slide and settled above the 25,650 mark after a sharp intraday recovery.

The session began on a cautious note amid mixed global signals, with the Nifty slipping to 25,372.70 in early trade. However, strong domestic buying quickly reversed the trend, triggering a steady upmove through the day. Gains gathered momentum in the latter half of the session, lifting the index to an intraday high of 25,697 before it closed near the day's peak.

The S&P BSE Sensex, jumped 650.39 points or 0.79% to 83,277.15. The Nifty 50 index rallied 211.65 points or 0.83% to 25,682.75. The 50-unit index fell 1.86% in the past two sessions.

source:Capital Market

16/02/26, AI is thinking, writing and calculating faster and cheaper than ever. With white-collar jobs at risk, are Science, Commerce or Humanities still safe bets?

Class 11 students are choosing streams in the middle of a silent revolution. Will the stream they choose today survive tomorrow's machine takeover?

In many households across India, the familiar anxiety of board exams has been replaced by a new worry. Parents scroll through headlines about artificial intelligence drafting legal contracts, analysing financial data and writing code.

Students overhear conversations about automation replacing office workers. The traditional debate about the streams, Science, Commerce and Humanities feels heavier, almost existential.

If algorithms or machines can perform entry-level white-collar tasks quickly and affordably, what are the students preparing for? And more urgently: which stream is truly 'safe' in the age of AI?

Is AI Replacing White-Collar Jobs?

The CEO of Microsoft AI, Mustafa Suleyman, has warned in a recent interview that many white-collar jobs could be automated within the next 12-18 months. Law firms, accounting offices and corporate cubicles, once considered stable career destinations, suddenly seemed vulnerable.

Artificial intelligence, fuelled by billions of dollars of investment from companies such as Google, OpenAI and Microsoft, is rapidly advancing toward systems capable of handling complex professional tasks. For Class 11 students standing at the crossroads of stream selection, the implications feel immediate.

No Stream Is Outdated, But The Right Approach Matters

The pressing question for students is no longer, 'Which stream guarantees a job?' Instead, it is, 'Which skills will remain valuable even as AI evolves?' Niraj Harlalka, CEO of Eduberance Education Ventures Pvt Ltd in Ahmedabad, believes the fear surrounding streams becoming irrelevant is misplaced.

According to Harlalka, Science with Mathematics continues to offer strong pathways into data science, AI, robotics and engineering. Commerce with Mathematics opens doors to fintech, analytics and digital business.

The Humanities stream, often underestimated, is poised to gain importance in psychology, design, public policy and ethics, fields where human judgment plays a central role.

"In an AI-driven world, streams that combine analytical thinking with creativity and problem-solving will stay relevant," he explains. "The key is not just the stream, but the integration of digital literacy, critical thinking and adaptability within it."

Science: Beyond PCM and PCB

The Science stream has traditionally been viewed as the 'safe' option, particularly for students aiming for engineering or medicine. In the AI era, its relevance remains strong, but only when expanded beyond conventional boundaries.

Manish Mohta, Founder of Learning Spiral in Chhattisgarh, notes that Science, especially with Mathematics, leads naturally into engineering, data science, robotics, biotechnology and emerging AI-powered disciplines.

However, he cautions that simply enrolling in science is not enough. Students must build adaptability and interdisciplinary exposure. Coding, statistics, computational thinking and research skills are increasingly essential.

Commerce: Data-Driven Business For The Future

The Commerce stream is undergoing a quiet revolution. Finance, once dominated by manual accounting and spreadsheet management, is slowly getting linked with automation and analytics.

Harlalka describes Commerce with Mathematics as "powerful for fintech, analytics and digital business." The rise of financial technology companies and AI-powered investment tools means future accountants and analysts must understand both algorithms and numbers.

Tanya Singh, Dean of Academics at Noida International University, agrees. She says Commerce will always remain relevant when combined with finance, analytics and digital business skills.

Humanities: The Human Edge

For decades, many have unfairly labelled the Humanities as the 'less practical' stream. That perception is changing rapidly. Dean Tanya Singh highlights that the Humanities will become even more relevant in areas where human insight and understanding are essential.

Psychology, law, communication, public policy and ethics cannot be easily automated. Mohta agrees with this sentiment, stating that the Humanities hold strong value in areas where human judgment, ethics and creativity are central.

AI may analyse patterns, but it cannot replicate moral reasoning or cultural nuance. As organisations grapple with ethical AI deployment and policy frameworks, professionals trained in humanities disciplines may become crucial.

Entrepreneurship: The Most Chosen Career Option

The experts agree on one point: entrepreneurship is stream-agnostic. Harlalka explains that Science helps with product innovation, Commerce builds financial literacy, and Humanities develops communication and behavioural insight, all vital for founders.

"More important than stream are skills: problem-solving, financial literacy, digital fluency, data interpretation, design thinking and negotiation," he says.

Singh reinforces this view, adding that exposure to innovation projects, internships and entrepreneurial ideas matters more than being constrained within academic labels.
Mohta emphasises that founders in an AI-driven economy will be rewarded if they can identify real-world problems and use technology as a solution, not merely follow a trend.

Common Mistakes Students Make

Amid rising anxiety, students often make reactive decisions. "The most common mistake is choosing a stream based on trends, peer pressure or perceived salary rather than aptitude," Harlalka observes.

Many students, he notes, rush into Science assuming AI guarantees success without assessing their comfort with mathematics or analytical depth. Others avoid Humanities or Commerce, undervaluing their future potential.

Singh adds that some students choose streams out of fear that AI will eliminate jobs. "The fact is that AI will change jobs, not eliminate them, and learning and adaptability are more important than the stream label," she says.

Mohta highlights another misconception: believing traditional employment will disappear entirely, leaving only programming roles. In reality, AI will transform most professions rather than erase them.

AI vs Human Skills

One of the most important debates is not just about streams, but about skill balance. Students must become AI-literate, understanding data, automation and digital tools. Yet, as Harlalka explains, AI amplifies human skills rather than replaces them.

"Leadership, empathy, ethical reasoning, creativity and communication will differentiate individuals in the workforce," he says. "Machines process information; humans build trust, vision and culture."

Singh concurs, stressing that while it is necessary to understand AI, decision-making and responsibility remain human-centric. Mohta advises students to aim to become "AI-literate rather than AI-dependent."

Will Industries Shrink?

Automation will reshape certain sectors. Routine, process-driven roles in administration, basic accounting, customer support and repetitive IT services may shrink. Back-office operations and low-level data entry positions are especially vulnerable.

However, new roles are emerging in AI management, cybersecurity, digital consulting, sustainability, healthcare innovation and human-machine collaboration. Singh predicts growth in healthcare, education, sustainability, research and digital services. Mohta highlights AI management, digital strategy and cybersecurity as expanding areas.

The consistent advice across experts is clear: Build transferable skills. Critical thinking, communication, digital competence and continuous learning habits will allow students to pivot when industries evolve.

Practical Steps For Class 11 Students

For students standing at the crossroads of stream selection, experts recommend actionable steps:

• Build real-world projects and portfolios
• Learn how AI works, not just how to use it
• Take online courses in coding, analytics or digital design
• Seek internships or hands-on exposure early
• Develop soft skills such as communication and emotional intelligence

The future of work will likely be fluid. Career paths may shift multiple times over decades. Adaptability will become the ultimate safety net. Interestingly, not all tech leaders foresee mass unemployment.

Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google, has suggested that AI could create more jobs than it destroys, echoing historical patterns from previous technological revolutions. But even optimistic projections depend on societies investing in reskilling and education reform.

The narrative that AI is "coming for jobs" is partly true, but the reality is more complex. AI is not replacing entire professions but targeting tasks; it is redefining how work is structured, who performs it and what skills are valued.

For Class 11 students, the choice of stream still matters. Yet it is no longer a rigid track toward a single lifelong profession. It is the foundation of a flexible, evolving career where Science, Commerce and Humanities all remain viable.

As Manish Mohta puts it, "AI will transform jobs, not eliminate human potential. Students must aim to become AI-literate, not AI-dependent. Flexibility and lifelong learning will be their real career insurance."

For Class 11 students, the choice is no longer about picking the safest stream. It is about choosing a mindset, one that can survive and thrive in an AI-powered world.

source: News18