28/03/26, Four weeks into US Israel war: BrentCrude up 45%, Nifty and Sensex fall over 9%, wiping out over Rs40 lakh crore in market capital

 The US-Israel-Iran war has been ongoing for four weeks as of March 28. On February 28, the US, along with Israel, launched a massive attack on Iran called Operation Epic Fury.

US President Donald Trump justified the attack, stating that Iran posed "an imminent threat" to the US and its allies.

On the first day of the military strike, Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had led the country since 1989, was killed along with several senior leaders. Iran responded to these strikes with its ballistic missiles and drones targeting Israel and US military bases in Gulf countries such as Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

Soon, the regional conflict escalated into a global geopolitical crisis. The crucial oil shipping route, the Strait of Hormuz, which carries over 20 million barrels of crude oil per day, was shut down by Iran; several flights were cancelled, and global stock markets were significantly impacted.

The US-Israel-Iran war has caused significant volatility and a decline in the global stock markets, including India. Crude oil prices have surged nearly 50% in the last four weeks amid supply disruption concerns, while safe-haven assets like gold and silver saw unexpected declines, even as the US dollar has rapidly appreciated.

Here is a brief overview of how different assets and benchmark indices performed since the start of the Iran war.

Performance of benchmark indices over the last four weeks

Indices	February 27 close	March 27 close	Change*
NIFTY50	25,178	22,819	▼9.3%
SENSEX	81,287	73,583	▼9.4%
NIFTY Bank	60,529	52,274	▼13.6%
Dow Jones	48,977	45,166	▼7.7%
S&P 500	6,878	6368	▼7.4%
Nasdaq	22,668	20,948	▼7.5%

*Change calculated based on February 27 and March 27 closing. February 28 was a market holiday.

As seen from the above table, major global and Indian indices have corrected sharply in the last one month since the start of the Iran war. NIFTY50 and SENSEX declined 9.3% and 9.4% respectively, while the NIFTY Bank index declined 13.6%. Over ₹40 lakh crore in market cap has been wiped out of the markets since February 27. Meanwhile, US markets like the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are down between 7% and 8%.

Key factors behind the market fall

US-Israel-Iran war: Geopolitical tensions increased uncertainty across markets. Investors usually avoid risky assets like stocks during such times and prefer safer assets like US Treasuries and commodities.

Surge in crude oil prices: Oil prices have risen sharply due to supply concerns. Higher oil prices negatively affect import-dependent countries like India as the rising inflation impacts the overall economy, leading to weak market sentiments.

Rising bond yields: Both the US and Indian bond yields have gone up in the last few weeks. The yield on India's 10-year G-Sec climbed from 6.6% in February 2026 to around 6.9% in March 2026, which is the highest level since July 2024. Meanwhile, the US 10Y Treasury yield jumped from 3.96% to 4.43% in the last four weeks. When bond yields rise, fixed-income investments become more attractive compared to risky assets like stocks, causing money to shift out of equity markets.

Banking stocks under pressure: The NIFTY Bank and NIFTY PSU Bank indices have witnessed the steepest decline of 13.6% and 16%, respectively. Rising bond yields reduce the value of government bonds held by banks, impacting their profitability.

Consistent FIIs sell-off: High bond yields and a weak Indian rupee have triggered further selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs). The Indian rupee breached 94 per dollar on March 27. The depreciation of the Indian rupee against the US dollar reduces the overall return for foreign investors, driving them to reduce their exposure to Indian markets. FIIs have sold Indian equities worth ₹1.11 lakh crore in March so far.

How different assets performed in the last four weeks

Assets	February 27	March 27	Change
Gold	$5278/ troy ounce	$4493/ troy ounce	14.8%
Silver	$93.76/ troy ounce	$69.74/ troy ounce	25.6%
Brent crude	$73.2/barrel	$106.2/barrel	45%
Indian rupee	₹91.02/dollar	₹94.75/dollar	4.0%
India 10-year bond yield	6.66%	6.93%	4.0%
US Dollar Index	97.33	99.98	2.7%

*Change calculated based on Feb 27 and March 27 closing.

Gold and silver fall despite uncertainty: Safe-haven assets declined despite the geopolitical crisis and market uncertainty, as rising bond yields reduced the appeal of non-interest assets like gold. Besides this, the strong US dollar also made gold expensive for buyers.

Ahead of the war, gold and silver touched an all-time high in January 2026. Hence, investors likely booked profits. Silver prices declined over 25% as its demand is linked to industrial use, and a war-like situation generally weakens economic growth and demand.

US dollar Index strengthened: The US Dollar Index, which measures the price of the dollar against a basket of currencies, rose from 97.61 to 100.15 in the past four weeks as investors moved to the US dollar as a safe-haven asset during global uncertainty. Higher US yields also supported the dollar index.

As the US-Israel-Iran war enters its fourth week, US President Donald Trump has announced de-escalation talks with Iran. The US administration has presented Iran with a 15-point proposal outlining the terms for ending the conflict. Markets are looking forward to more clues in the coming week.

Upstox report 

28/03/26, Gold rate today: MINT Report

Following a combination of factors such as the Israel-US-Iran war, elevated US Treasury yields, volatile crude oil prices, a strong US Dollar (USD), and the hawkish stance of the US Federal Reserve and other central banks across the world, gold prices finished the week almost flat.

In India, the MCX gold rate finished at ₹1,47,270 per 10 gm, logging a solid recovery of over ₹17,500 per 10 gm after hitting the weekly low of ₹1,29,595 per 10 gm.

In the international market, the COMEX gold rate ended above the $4,500 per troy ounce. However, despite ending above $4,500 levels, the precious yellow metal recorded a weekly loss of 1.85%.

Gold rate today: Important triggers

On the reasons for weakness in gold rates today, Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet, said the recent weakness can be attributed to a combination of macro and cross-asset pressures. She said that persistent Israel-US-Iran war tensions in the West Asia region have paradoxically weighed on bullion, as investors have preferred to raise cash and liquidate gold holdings to offset losses in risk assets. At the same time, elevated US Treasury yields have reduced the relative appeal of non-yielding assets like gold, further capping upside momentum.

Easing inflation fears on the cooling crude oil prices

However, the SS WealthStreet expert maintained that a cool-off in crude oil prices from highs near $120 per barrel to around $93 per barrel for Brent crude during the beginning of the week provided a degree of relief to inflation expectations and supported a rebound in gold from lower levels. This pullback in energy prices helped revive some buying interest in the precious metal from an oversold territory.

Israel-US-Iran war in focus

Pointing towards the geopolitical tension in the Middle East, Sugandha Sachdeva said, "The US has continued to build military presence in the West Asian region, even as the US administration has proposed a 15-point ceasefire plan to Iran, alongside postponing potential strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6. Simultaneously, Iran has laid out its own set of conditions, including sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and security guarantees, terms that appear difficult for the US to accommodate."

Sugandha Sachdeva of SS WealthStreet said that despite ongoing diplomatic signalling, hostilities have persisted, including fresh strikes between Israel and Iran and continued disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. The effective closure of this critical energy artery continues to embed a geopolitical risk premium in oil prices. As a result, while crude corrected during the week, it still retains underlying support, limiting the extent of downside.

Dent to US Fed rate cut hopes

Highlighting the hawkish stance of the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks across the world, Sugandha Sachdeva said, 'From a macro standpoint, central banks globally, including the European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan, have maintained a hawkish bias amid persistent inflation risks, particularly those stemming from energy supply disruptions. This reinforces expectations of tighter monetary conditions, which remain a headwind for gold."

Is this a right time to buy gold?

On the outlook of the gold price today, Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said that the broader structure still reflects underlying weakness, with geopolitical tensions offering only intermittent safe-haven support and limiting sustained upside.

"A sustained move above $4,600 could extend the rally toward $4,680-$4,750, with further upside potential toward $4,850, where stronger supply is expected. On the downside, a break below $4,300 may accelerate weakness toward the $4,100-$4,150 zone," the Enrich Money CEO said.

Ponmudi R of Enrich Money said the gold rates in India continue to trade above the ₹1,40,000 support band, indicating underlying buying interest despite intraday volatility. It suggests resilience at higher levels, keeping the broader tone constructive but cautious.

On factors that may dictate gold prices in the near-term, Sugandha Sachdeva said, "The interplay between crude oil prices, geopolitical developments, and monetary policy expectations will be critical. In the near term, gold is expected to witness sharp swings with dips attracting buying interest while rallies are likely to face selling pressure."

The SS WealthStreet founder said that the outlook for the coming week remains cautiously weak, with prices highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines. A credible ceasefire could trigger a decline in oil prices and ease inflation fears, potentially supporting gold. Conversely, any escalation could push crude higher, strengthen the US dollar due to increased demand for energy imports, and weigh further on bullion.

Sharing her outlook for gold rate today in India, Sugandha Sachdeva said, "On the domestic front, the gold prices are likely to find support near the ₹1,35,000 to ₹1,33,500 zone, with a strong resistance zone seen around ₹1,57,600. A sustained break beyond this range will be required to establish a clear directional trend."

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not of us. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

28/03/26, Weekly Markets Wrap:

The benchmark indices in India closed lower for the fifth straight week after witnessing a mix of positive sentiment and selling pressure from investors.

This week, the equity market investors were trading based on the dynamic global market sentiment, rising oil prices, a volatile Indian rupee and massive FII outflows.

The NIFTY50 index lost 1.3%, closing at 22,819.60 points, while the BSE SENSEX also lost 1.3%, ending at 73,583.22 points after this week's trading session. Despite the heightened volatility and the indices losing on a weekly basis, the stock market indices witnessed a two-day relief, closing higher before Friday's losses.

The stock markets witnessed significant pressure this week due to the rising oil prices, foreign investors' outflow from the Indian market, a weaker Indian rupee and the heavyweights underperforming amid no signs of relief related to the US-Iran conflict.

Stock market today

The NIFTY 50 index closed 2.09% lower at 22,819.60 points after Friday's trading session, compared to 23,306.45 points at the previous market close, according to NSE data. The benchmark index tanked to 22,804.55 points during the intraday trading session.

While the SENSEX closed 2.25% lower at 73,583.22 points after the trading session on March 27, compared to the previous market close level of 75,273.45 points on Wednesday, according to BSE data. The Indian stock market was closed for the trading session on Thursday, March 26, on account of the Shri Ram Navami scheduled holiday.

On Friday, the indices were witnessing high selling pressure from the investors, among whom the hopes of a potential deal between the United States and Iran were seen fading amid all the uncertainty and dialogue between both nations.

Factors weighing down Indian stock market

With the US-Iran conflict closing the end of its fourth week since the beginning on February 28, the global market now awaits any potential agreement between the United States and Iran to put an end to the conflict, which has risked the supply of energy trade across the world.

This week, oil prices have ranged between as low as $93.45 per bbl to as high as $109.78 per bbl due to Israel's frequent escalations and attacks on Iran, amid the US President's five-day military strike pause on key energy resources. That window has been increased to 10 days from Friday, March 27, to Monday, April 6, 2026. As of 5:42 pm (IST), the Brent crude oil futures were trading 2.38% higher at $104.30 per barrel (bbl) on Friday, compared to $101.89 per bbl at the previous market close, according to Investing.com data.

Along with the rising oil prices, NSE data showed that in Friday's stock market session, FII/FPIs have sold ₹4,367.30 crore worth of assets from the capital markets in a single day, contributing to the outflow of money from emerging markets like India to safer assets like gold and US treasuries.

In March 2026 so far, foreign investors have sold around ₹1.1 lakh crore worth of assets from the Indian market, marking a 9.4% month-on-month fall compared to February 2026.

Indian rupee dropped to a record low level of 94.82 against the US dollar due to the high demand for the global currency in times of uncertainty. The lower rate of the Indian rupee due to a stronger dollar also weighed on the benchmark stock indices, fuelling major losses on the final day.

According to the Bloomberg dollar spot index, the US greenback was trading 0.22% higher at 100.124 as of 8:13 am (EDT) on Friday, March 27, 2026.

Top 5 gainers & losers this week

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), Larsen & Toubro, Apollo Hospitals, HCL Tech, and Bajaj Finance were the top five gainers on the benchmark Nifty index as of the week ended March 27.

ONGC gained 6.2%, Larsen & Toubro was up by 3.8%, Apollo Hospitals was up 2.5%, HCL Tech was up 2.3%, and Bajaj Finance gained 1.6% this week.

While others like Adani Enterprises, Bharat Electronics (BEL), Coal India, Reliance Industries, and Trent were the top five losers on the benchmark NIFTY50 index as of Friday's trading close.

Adani Enterprises lost 5.4%, BEL lost 5%, Coal India lost 4.9%, Reliance Industries lost 4.7%, and Trent lost 4.5% as of the week ended on March 27, according to NSE data.

Top performing sectors this week

On the sectoral front, IT stocks witnessed an overall good performance this week, with the Nifty IT gaining 1.2% this week as of the market close on Friday, followed by Nifty Healthcare up 0.3%, and Nifty Pharma gaining 0.1%.

Other major sectoral indices were witnessing a red week after the benchmark stocks dragged down the segments over the last five days.

Among the weekly losers were Nifty India Defence, which lost 4%, Nifty PSU Bank was down 3.9%, followed by Nifty Bank, which lost 2.2%, Nifty Auto, which dropped 1.5%, Nifty Metal, down 2.2%, and Nifty Energy, which lost 1.9% as of Friday's market close.

The Nifty Midcap 100 lost 1.4% this week, closing at 54,097.80 points with stocks like Bharat Dynamics down 9%, Torrent Power down 6.8%, Cochin Shipyard down 6.3%, 360 One Wam down 6.1%, and Prestige Estates Projects down 6% as of the final trading day.

However, other stocks like Oracle Financial Services up 5.6%, Coforge up 5.1%, LIC Housing Finance up 4.1%, Vishal Mega Mart up 4%, and Persistent Systems gained 3.9% this week.

On the small-cap front, the Nifty Smallcap 100 index lost 0.6% in one week after closing at 15,620 points after Friday's trading session. Among the top weekly losers were Brainbees Solutions down 10.8%, Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers down 9.3%, Redington down 7.7%, Amara Raja Energy down 7.6%, and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochem lost 7.4%.

However, stocks like Affle 3i were up 12.5%, Karur Vysya Bank up 12.1%, Five-Star Business Finance up 7.4%, Brigade Enterprises up 7.3%, and Sagility up 6.9% were among the gainers this week on the midcap index.

Report by Upstox... courtesy: dailyhunt

Disclaimer: This article is purely for informational purposes and should not be considered investment advice from us.  Please consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

27/03/26, Major stock indices on Wall Street slipped this Friday as the ongoing Middle East conflict persisted, even as the United States deferred its timeline for potential strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure.

At 10:09 a.m. ET the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.06%, the S&P 500 lost 0.94%, and the Nasdaq Composite shed 1.27%.

At the opening bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 55.9 points, or 0.12%, to 45,904.25. The S&P 500 fell 23.3 points, or 0.36%, to 6,453.89​, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 120.9 points, or 0.56%, to 21,287.187.

On Thursday, US President Donald Trump pushed back a self-imposed deadline to "obliterate" Iran's power facilities to April 6, contingent on Tehran permitting oil tankers to resume passage from the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz to open waters.

Despite this second delay announced by Trump within the week, hostilities in the region showed no signs of abating.

Iran indicated no intention of retreating, while Israel issued threats to "escalate and expand" its military operations against Iranian targets.

"Any further statements by Trump about a deal are white noise to the markets," Jim Bianco, president and macro strategist at Bianco Research, wrote in a social media post.

"Only if the IRANIANS say the talks are going well will it impact markets," Bianco added.

Crude oil prices experienced a brief dip following Trump's remarks but soon resumed their upward trajectory due to enduring fears that the conflict will cause long-term disruptions to the production and shipment of oil and natural gas across the Persian Gulf.

The price of Brent crude increased by 2.2% to $104.15 per barrel, a significant jump from the roughly $70 recorded before the outbreak of war. Meanwhile, benchmark U.S. crude climbed 3% to reach $97.28 per barrel.

In the fixed-income market, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.46%, from 4.42% on Thursday.

On the economic data front, University of Michigan consumer sentiment data released on Friday showed consumer sentiment was at 53.3 versus a preliminary reading of 55.5.

Key Stock Movers

Netflix shares rose 0.8% a day after the streaming giant announced price hikes for its services.

Unity Software shares climbed 11.7% after the maker of videogame software reported first quarter preliminary revenue above Wall Street estimates.

Shares of Alphabet and Meta Platforms declined 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively.

Carnival Corp stock fell 1.3% after the cruise-operator cut its annual adjusted profit forecast.

Bullion Market

Gold prices edged higher on Friday on dip-buying.

As of 9:34 a.m. ET (1334 GMT), spot gold rose 0.9% to $4,416.90 per ounce. US gold futures for April delivery gained 0.8% to $4,411.10.

Among other metals, spot silver fell 0.4% to $67.74 per ounce. Spot platinum gained 0.5% to $1,835.60, while palladium rose 0.9% to $1,370.18.

Report by Mint... Source:dailyhunt

27/03/26, Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL)

Shares of Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), the country's most valuable company by market capitalisation, came under severe selling pressure on Friday, 27 March, slipping 4.60% to the day's low of ₹ 1,348 apiece and ending a two-day rally.

Friday's drop also marked the biggest single-day sell-off the stock has seen since June 2024, wiping out nearly ₹80,000 crore in market capitalisation. The sell-off in Mukesh Ambani-led company's stock came after the government reintroduced windfall taxes on diesel and aviation turbine fuel (ATF) exports.

In a bid to ease pressure from rising crude oil prices-driven by the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict-the government on Friday cut excise duties on fuels, reducing petrol duty to ₹3 per litre and eliminating it on diesel. However, it also brought back the windfall tax, setting the diesel export tax at ₹21.5 per litre, along with a ₹29.5 per litre tax on aviation fuel exports.

India first imposed windfall profit taxes on 1 July 2022, joining a growing number of nations that tax supernormal profits of energy companies. At that time, export duties of ₹6 per litre each were levied on petrol and ATF, and ₹13 per litre on diesel, which was later scrapped on 2 December 2024, following a drop in crude oil prices.

The reintroduction of the windfall tax is likely to impact Reliance Industries, as it is the country's largest fuel exporter. Its twin refineries at Jamnagar produce nearly 5 million tonnes of ATF, a significant portion of which is exported, accounting for about one-fourth of India's total ATF output, as per media reports.

Company denies purchase of Iranian-origin crude oil

In an exchange filing, the company also clarified that it has not purchased crude oil of Iranian origin, calling such claims "baseless" and misleading.

"Reliance Industries Limited categorically rejects recent media reports that the company has purchased crude oil of Iranian origin. These reports are baseless, leading to misleading and incorrect claims. We urge the concerned media outlets to verify facts before publication," the company said in its exchange filing on Thursday.

On 24 March, news agency Reuters reported that Reliance Industries had purchased 5 million barrels of Iranian crude, citing sources familiar with the matter.

The government reacted to the sharp rise in crude oil prices and decided to absorb the cost pressure instead of passing it on to consumers, with reports suggesting it could incur a revenue loss of ₹70 billion, with the net impact estimated at ₹55 billion per fortnight.

Since the war erupted in the Middle East on 28 February, following joint US and Israel attacks on Iran, the flow of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly come to a halt, cutting off a vital passage through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil passes on a typical day.

The prolonged closure of this crucial route has triggered a massive surge in crude prices, with Brent rising by over 55% in less than a month. Prices are still hovering above $110 per barrel, as traders fear that supply disruptions will persist, even as US President Donald Trump indicated that talks with Iran are progressing well.

Reliance Industries share price trend

The heavyweight stock has been struggling to gain momentum, remaining under pressure since the start of 2026. It declined 11.14% in January, with the sell-off easing in February, before slipping again in March, falling another 3.29% so far.

Year-to-date, the stock has fallen 14.16%, bringing its market capitalisation to ₹18,23,844 crore, down by nearly ₹3,00,000 crore from ₹21,24,210 crore. The decline has not only impacted the company's shareholders but has also weighed heavily on the Nifty 50.

source: Mint 

Disclaimer: We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions

27/03/26, War News Snaps

 

27/03/26, afternoon market news

 Benchmark indices  Sensex and Nifty fell over 2% each on March 27, tracking global stocks and elevated Brent crude prices, as hopes for a resolution to the Iran war have ebbed. Nifty even gave up the key 22,900 level.

At 2:40 pm, the Sensex was down 1,625.58 points or 2.16% at 73,647.87, and the Nifty was down 467.40 points or 2.01% at 22,839.05. About 708 shares advanced, 3,315 shares declined, and 97 shares unchanged.

Key factors behind market decline

Profit booking

Profit booking emerged on March 27 after a whopping 3.5% rally in equities over the last two sessions. Fifteen of the 16 major sectors logged losses, and the broader small-caps and mid-caps slid 1.7% each.

You May Oil and Natural Gas Corp. was the top gainer in the 50-stock index, up 4.7%.

On the other hand, Tata Motors PV was the worst hit in the index, followed by Shriram Finance. Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, State Bank of India, Axis Bank, and HDFC Life Insurance Co. fell 1–3%. Index heavyweights HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank were down 2% and nearly 1%, respectively. Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Eternal, InterGlobe Aviation, UltraTech Cement, and Maruti Suzuki were down around 2-3% as well.

The Nifty PSU Bank was the worst hit. All the constituents of the index traded lower. Union Bank of India, Bank of India, and Canara Bank fell 3% each and weighed on the index.

Brainbees Solutions was the worst hit stock in the Nifty 500, down nearly 5%.

Geopolitical concerns

A global equity selloff stretched into a second day as initial optimism over the US delaying its deadline for Iran to reach a deal faded.

US President Donald Trump said he will extend a pause on attacks against Iran's energy plants into April and that talks with Iran were going "very well," but an Iranian official said a US proposal for ending the war as "one-sided and unfair."

US equities slumped nearly 2% on Thursday, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed past 4.4% and Brent crude jumped almost 6% on mounting concerns that a near-term halt to the Iran war is unlikely.

Asia's benchmark share index fell 0.8% after Wall Street gauges slid to the lowest level since September on Thursday. Technology stocks declined as South Korea — a poster child for AI investments — slumped 2.7%, with chipmakers Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. leading losses. Taiwanese shares dropped 1.4%.

US equity-index futures also pared gains to 0.3% after the Wall Street Journal reported the Pentagon is looking at sending up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East.

Crude above $100 per barrel

Oil prices fell in early trade on Friday but were still above $100 per barrel and were down over a volatile week after U.S. President Donald Trump said talks with Iran to end the war were going "very well" and announced he would pause attacks on the country's energy plants for 10 days.

On Friday, the benchmarks were little changed after a bullish previous session. Brent futures fell 4 cents to $107.97 per barrel as of 0608 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate futures were down 40 cents at $94.08 per barrel.

On Thursday, Brent rose 5.7% while WTI gained 4.6% on fears of further escalation of the war, although trading volume for the front-month Brent contract was the lowest since February 27, the day before the United States and Israel began strikes on Iran.

However, Brent is headed for its first weekly fall in six weeks while WTI has fallen for a second consecutive week, with Trump talking up the prospect of ending the war.

"The Indian economy is strong enough to absorb the shock if the war ends, crude cools down and gas availability becomes normal. But if the war prolongs, crude remains elevated for months together, and gas availability constraints continue, the stress on India's macros will be significant and the market will discount that. In brief, everything boils down to how long the war will last. The market hope is that since a prolonged war is in nobody's interests, it may end soon. The US itself is now looking for an exit strategy. Market corrections and rising retail price of petroleum products may exert pressure on the US regime to cool down the conflict" said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.

Weak rupee

The Indian rupee hit a record low past the 94-per-dollar mark on Friday, hammered by worries that the energy supply crisis sparked by the Middle East war will drag on, deepening the pressure on energy importing economies.

The rupee fell to 94.7 per dollar, eclipsing its previous all-time low of 93.98 hit earlier this week. It has declined about 4% since the war began late last month.

Despite a 3.5% rally in equities over the last two sessions, foreign investors were net sellers on both days, tempering any positive spillover for the rupee.

"This sustained crude risk is directly impacting India's import bill expectations, keeping the rupee under pressure. The broader bias remains weak unless energy supply normalizes meaningfully. Near-term range for rupee is seen between 93.70–94.50," said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities.

The benchmark 10-year bond was quoted at 96.97 rupees, with the yield up 5 bps at 6.93%, as oil prices remain elevated and as traders reacted to the a cut in fuel excise duties, which is detrimental for government finances.

VIX rises 7.5%

India VIX, the volatility gauge, was trading 7.5% higher at 26.53, which indicates Street expects near-term selling pressure

   

Report by J. Jagannath of Network18 

27/03/26, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Thursday said that the Strait of Hormuz has been opened for friendly countries, including India.

 This comes after UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

In a post on X, he wrote, "The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz is choking the movement of oil, gas, and fertilizer at a critical moment in the global planting season. Across the region and beyond, civilians are enduring serious harm and living under profound insecurity. The UN is working to minimise the consequences of the war. And the best way to minimise those consequences is clear: End the war immediately." Urging US and Israel to end the war in West Asia, he said, "My message to the US and Israel is that it is high time to end the war, as human suffering deepens, civilian casualties mount, and the global economic impact becomes increasingly devastating. My message to Iran is to stop attacking its neighbours that are not parties to the conflict."

On March 25, Iran's mission in New York stated that vessels it considers "non-hostile" would be permitted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

In a post on X, the mission clarified that ships, including those linked to other countries, can transit safely provided they do not engage in or support hostile actions against Iran and adhere to all declared safety and security rules. Such passage, it added, must take place in coordination with Iranian authorities.

Separately, Iran's Defence Council emphasised that access for "non-hostile vessels" through the strategically vital Strait now requires prior coordination with Iranian officials.

source:Free Press Joirnal

27/03/26, market intraday news

Benchmark stock indices BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty tumbled sharply in early trade on Friday, snapping a two-day rally amid weak global cues and rising geopolitical tensions.

The 30-share BSE Sensex fell 926.92 points to 74,346.53, while the 50-share NSE Nifty declined 280.95 points to 23,025.50 in early trading. The sharp fall reflects cautious investor sentiment as global uncertainties weigh heavily on markets.

Market participants remained wary due to the ongoing tensions linked to the US-Iran conflict, which continues to impact global financial stability. Adding to concerns, crude oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel, raising fears of inflation and increased import costs for India.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) also continued their selling streak, further dampening market sentiment. Persistent outflows have made investors more risk-averse, contributing to the downward trend in equities.

Among Sensex stocks, major laggards included Bajaj Finance, Larsen & Toubro, Reliance Industries, InterGlobe Aviation, and Bajaj Finserv. On the other hand, gainers included Tata Consultancy Services, HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra, and Trent.

In broader Asian markets, indices such as the Kospi and Nikkei 225 were trading lower, while the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng showed mixed trends. Meanwhile, US markets had ended sharply lower in the previous session, further influencing investor sentiment globally.

Report by The Indian Witness ...source:Dailyhunt

27/03/26, war news snaps

27'02'26, excise duty cut on Petrol & Diesel

The government has reduced the additional excise duty on petrol and diesel to give relief to consumers at a time when fuel prices have been a major concern due to the ongoing conflict in West Asia.

 According to a government order issued on Thursday, excise duty on petrol has been reduced from Rs 13 per litre to Rs 3 per litre. This means petrol duty has been cut by Rs 10 per litre. Excise duty on diesel has been reduced from Rs 10 per litre to zero. This is also a cut of Rs10 per litre, which is expected to ease pressure on fuel prices.

The reduction comes amid a global energy crisis due to the US-Israel war on Iran and the consequent Tehran-imposed blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's crude oil and gas supply, between 20 and 25 million barrels per day, is shipped. Before the conflict, India bought 12 to 15 per cent of that oil.

According to the Gazette notification. "In exercise of the powers conferred by section 5A of the Central Excise Act, 1944 (1 of 1944) read with section 147 of Finance Act, 2002 (20 of 2002), the Central Government, being satisfied that it is necessary in the public interest so to do, hereby makes the following further amendments in the notification of the Government of India in the Ministry of Finance (Department of Revenue), No. 05/2019-Central Excise, dated the 6th July, 2019, published in the Gazette of India, Extraordinary, Part II, Section 3, Sub-section(i), vide number G.S.R. 488(E), dated the 6th July, 2019, namely; In the said notification, I. in the Table, (i) against Sl. No. 1, in column (4), for the entry, the entry "Rs. 3 per litre" shall be substituted, (ii) against Sl. No. 2, in column (4), for the entry, the entry "Nil" shall be substituted."

This move brings relief to Oil Marketing Companies oil marketing companies who were losing money on the the marketing side because cost of crude oil shooting up. Retail prices of Petrol and Diesel remain unchanged as of now.

The Central Government, also exempted Aviation Turbine Fuel, from the whole of the Special Additional Excise Duty providing relief to the Aviation sector. Windfall tax on export of aviation turbine fuel has been fixed at 29.5 rupees/litre.

Earlier, the Government of India said that fuel supply across the country remains stable and retail fuel outlets are operating normally despite the ongoing developments in West Asia, urging the public not to believe rumours or resort to panic buying.

According to a statement released by the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, "All retail outlets are operating normally across the country", even as there were reports of panic buying in some areas due to rumours.

The ministry clarified that the country has adequate fuel supplies. "There are adequate stocks of petrol and diesel available at all Petrol Pumps in the country," the statement said, reiterating its advice to citizens "not to believe rumours."

The government also said that all refineries are operating at high capacity to ensure an uninterrupted energy supply. "All refineries are operating at high capacity, with adequate crude inventories in place," the ministry said, adding that domestic LPG production from refineries has been increased to support domestic consumption.

(With inputs from ANI)

27/03/26, Trade Set-Up

Open Interest- NIFTY50

Positioning

Trend	Wednesday	Tuesday
FIIs index short% (Futures)	85%	86%
PCR	1.25	1.06
OI (24,000 CE strike)	77 lakh	64 lakh

Institutional intelligence

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) extended their selling streak to the twentieth consecutive session, offloading equities worth ₹1,805 crore on 25 March. With this, their cumulative outflow for March has risen to ₹1,07,010 crore, marking the second-highest monthly sales figure in the past two years.

In index futures, FIIs marginally reduced their bearish exposure ahead of the April series rollovers. The long-to-short ratio eased to 15:85 on 25 March, indicating gradual short covering as expiry approaches.

That said, the broader positioning remains firmly bearish with a clear tilt towards short contracts. Traders should stay cautious, as the undertone continues to favour selling on rallies. Unless NIFTY50 reclaims the crucial 23,850 resistance zone, the index is likely to face pressure at higher levels.

Key levels for NIFTY50

• Expiry: March 30
• Resistance: 23,850
• Support: 22,450
• Call concentration: 24,000
• Put concentration: 23,000
• Bullish above: 23,850
• Bearish below: 22,450

Trend summary: 1-hour chart

• Price: Above 20 EMA and 50 EMA
• RSI: 58 (Neutral to bullish)
• ADX: 26 ( Trending)

The NIFTY50 extended the gains on Wednesday by closing nearly 400 points higher. The index managed to hold the morning gains throughout the day and close near the intraday high levels, signalling strong buying on dips momentum on the index, amid positive global cues.

On the hourly charts, the index closed above the 20- and 50-EMA levels, suggesting sustained momentum. The RSI of 58 and the ADX of 26 suggest an overall bullish trend on the index in the short term.

If-then playbook

Scenario 1: NIFTY50 around 23,450 and 23,850

Following the bearish crossover between the 50 and 200 EMAs, the broader trend of NIFTY50 remains weak. The immediate resistance zones are placed at 23,450, 23,850, and 24,000. Any failure to sustain above these levels, particularly accompanied by bearish price action, could reinforce continuation of the bearish structure. However, a close above 23,450, will turn the structure rangebound.

Scenario 2: NIFTY50 below 22,450

The immediate support for NIFTY50 is placed around the 22,450 zone, in line with the March 23 low. With the index already correcting over 14% from its recent all-time high, the risk-reward for fresh shorts at current levels appears unfavourable, unless positions are initiated near key resistance zones. However, a decisive break below 22,450 would signal renewed weakness. It could open the door for a move towards 22,000, followed by the strong support zone around 21,700.

️ Market signals

GIFT NIFTY futures indicate a weak opening for NIFTY50 on Friday amid negative global market cues. Investors remained cautious on multiple conflicting reports on the Middle East.

The US markets closed sharply lower on Thursday after negotiation talks between the US and Iran failed to yield any results. The Dow Jones plunged 469 points, the S&P500 fell 114 points, and the NASDAQ tumbled the most by 521 points or 2.3%. However, the US stock market futures trade in green on Friday morning after President Trump delayed attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure by 10-days.

The crude oil prices bounced back a little from the near-term lows as the situation on the ground remains weak despite rounds of negotiations taking place. The Brent crude oil prices hovered near the $100 per barrel mark on Friday morning, after jumping 2% on Thursday.

Growing scepticism around the negotiation talks between the US and Israel pulled the Asian markets lower. The Japanese and Hong Kong benchmark indices fell nearly 2%, while the Korean index plunged over 3% on Friday morning.

By Upstox