22/10/26, Indian Rupee vs US Dollar

Report by Snupreksha Jain 

The rupee opened flat at 94.47 per US dollar on Thursday after an eight-session winning streak, as traders weighed continued dollar inflows linked to the Jio Platforms IPO against rising crude oil prices and month-end dollar demand. Forex traders expect the currency to trade in a narrow range of 94.15-94.60 during the day.

The currency has strengthened from around 96.60-96.70 in recent sessions, supported by foreign fund flows linked to the $3.2 billion Jio Platforms IPO. Continued inflows could provide further support despite a broadly stable dollar index and higher crude prices.

 “With Jio-related flows continuing, the rupee could strengthen further despite a stable dollar index and crude prices,” a forex trader at a private bank said. “Exporters will continue to sell on upticks, while importers are buying on dips, but largely for their near-term requirements.”

The dollar index stood at 101.72, close to Tuesday evening levels, after slipping to an intraday low of around 101.50. Earlier weakness reflected lower US Treasury yields and improved risk sentiment, while escalating Middle East tensions continued to provide some support to the greenback.

Crude oil and month-end demand in focus

Brent crude futures rose to around $110.32 a barrel after settling at $108.82 on Wednesday, amid renewed concerns over Middle East supplies and shipping disruptions. India's crude oil basket stood at $115.55 a barrel on October 20, with its premium easing slightly.

Sustained high oil prices pose a risk to the rupee by raising India's import bill and adding to pressure on the current account and imported inflation.

Traders also expect dollar outflows after the Jio IPO subscription and allotment process is completed. Month-end payment demand and the US Federal Open Market Committee's rate decision could add to currency volatility and offset some of the support from equity-related inflows.

High forward premiums deter longer-term hedging

Elevated forward premiums are discouraging importers from locking in dollar requirements over longer tenures, traders said. Many are instead buying dollars to meet near-term needs, keeping longer-term hedging demand subdued.

Exporters are expected to sell dollars when the rupee weakens, while importers are likely to buy on dips for immediate requirements. The balance between continued IPO-related inflows, oil-related dollar demand and month-end payments will determine whether the rupee can extend its gains.

Source: moneycontrol 

22/10/26, PC Jewellers

Total income rose 28 per cent to Rs 1,054.47 crore for the second quarter of this fiscal from Rs 825.25 crore a year ago.

Expenses remained higher at Rs 759.42 crore as against Rs 688.85 crore a year ago.

"A key milestone during the quarter was the company achieving debt-free status after repaying its outstanding dues to all 14 consortium banks ahead of schedule."

With interest costs expected to reduce significantly from the second half of FY27, the company expects its net profit to have a positive impact of the same, it added.

The company said it received remittances of about Rs 142 crore from export debtors during Q2 following negotiations and resolving of issues, marking the start of realisation of long-pending receivables.

PC Jewellers also announced the plan to roll out up to 100 large-format showrooms across Tier I, Tier II and Tier III cities over the next 12-18 months, as a mix of own as well as asset-light franchise model.

The company said it is "confident that it will start establishing new showrooms in this financial year itself."

It is also working on and planning to launch a new jewellery brand focusing on demi-fine/lightweight jewellery and lab-grown-diamond fine jewellery for younger and self-purchasing buyers, it added.

PC Jewellers Ltd has three subsidiary firms (Luxury Products Trendsetter, PC Jeweller Global FZCO and PCJ Gems & Jewellery) and one step-down subsidiary (PCJ Mining SARL).

Source:Network18

22/10/26, INDEX LEVELS

 SENSEX 

NIFTY50

NIFTY BANK

22/10/26, Trading Strategy

The Nifty 50 erased 1.33 percent from its intraday high of 23,120 to close 0.34 percent lower on October 21, extending its losses for a second consecutive session. The persistently weak broader market structure and elevated oil prices are likely to keep bearish sentiment intact. According to experts, if the index manages to hold above the Bollinger Bands' midline at 22,790 on a closing basis, a rebound toward the 22,900–23,000 zone is possible. The 23,200 level remains a crucial hurdle for any further sharp upside. However, a break below 22,790, followed by sustained trading below this level, could increase the likelihood of a further decline toward 22,600–22,500.

Here are 15 data points we have collated to help you spot profitable trades:

1) Key Levels For The Nifty50(22,811)

Resistance based on pivot points: 23,041, 23,152, and 23,332

Support based on pivot points: 22,681, 22,570, and 22,390

Special Formation: The Nifty 50 formed a long bearish candle with sizeable upper and lower shadows on the daily chart, indicating persistent weakness amid volatility. After falling below the 20-day EMA, the index traded below all key moving averages, although it managed to hold marginally above the midline of the Bollinger Bands, which generally acts as a support level. The RSI declined to 46.27 but remained above its signal line. Meanwhile, the MACD maintained its uptrend above the reference line, although the green histogram bar contracted after expanding over the previous four sessions. Overall, these technical indicators suggest that bearish momentum is strengthening, while the index is attempting to hold near-term support, leaving room for a potential recovery if buying interest emerges.

2) Key Levels For The NiftyBank(54,977)

Resistance based on pivot points: 55,628, 55,904, and 56,351

Support based on pivot points: 54,733, 54,457, and 54,009

Resistance based on Fibonacci retracement: 55,657, 56,238

Support based on Fibonacci retracement: 55,049, 54,053

Special Formation: The Bank Nifty fell 0.92 percent and formed a long bearish candle on the daily chart, slipping decisively below its short-term moving averages and indicating rising selling pressure. The index is now trading below all key moving averages as well as the midline of the Bollinger Bands, signalling a weakening technical structure. The RSI declined to 43.51 and is nearing a bearish crossover. Meanwhile, the MACD moved lower but remained above its signal line, while the green histogram bar contracted for the second consecutive session. Overall, these technical indicators point to increasing bearish momentum.

Report by Sunil Sankar Matkar

Network18 

21/10/26, intraday news/Benchmark indices SENSEX and Nifty fell significantly from day's high to trade in the red on October 21 due to various reasons, including profit booking.

At 12:19 am, the Sensex was down 406.64 points or 0.55% at 73,446.26, and the Nifty was down 164.25 points or 0.71% at 22,728. About 735 shares advanced, 3,128 shares declined, and 157 shares were unchanged.

Key reasons behind market decline

1) Profit booking

Profit booking emerged at higher levels as Sensex fell 1,200 points from day's high while Nifty was trading below 22,750-mark.

 In the broader market, while the mid-cap indices fell around 1% each, the small-cap trackers shed more than 1%. On the sectoral front, only five indices were well in the green.

In the 50-stock index, ICICI Bank and Reliance Industries, up around 2% each, lent the most support while Bajaj Finance and Eternal limited the gains. Eternal was down almost 2% ahead of its earnings for the September quarter.

The Nifty IT index continued to outperform its sectoral peers and was up more than 2%, driven by gains in Infosys, Tech Mahindra, and Tata Consultancy Services. The Nifty Cement gained the most after the IT index, largely supported by the rise in UltraTech Cement. The Nifty Oil & Gas index was up 0.6%, mostly on account of gains in Reliance Industries. Among the losers, the Nifty Auto fell over 1% to be the worst hit. All constituents of the index fell, with Sona BLW Precision Forgings down more than 3% and TVS Motor Co., Eicher Motors, and UNO Minda down around 2% each.

In some earnings-led moves, Gallantt Ispat fell more than 7% after its consolidated net profit for the September quarter fell 32% on year to Rs 60.5 crore. The stock was the top loser in the Nifty 500. Further, ABB India fell after its Swiss parent reported a 2% fall in net income for the quarter ended September. ABB India was down almost 5%, among the top laggards in the Nifty 200 universe.

2) Elevated crude prices

Brent crude oil futures hovered above $110 per barrel as the US and Iran continued their strikes against each other in the Strait of Hormuz and this is likely to keep market participants on edge. "We're knocking the sh*t out of them," US President Donald Trump said at a campaign rally in Kansas. In the near term, "...with Brent crude prices and US bond yields remaining elevated, the market is likely to remain under pressure", V.K. Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments, said in a note.

Higher oil prices are a challenge for India, which imports most of its requirements, as they add to the import bill, strain the country's fiscal deficit and hit corporate profits.

3) Technical reason

Nifty is taking strong resistance at 23,100 and needs to cross it decisively for any bullishness to return to the markets, said analysts.

"On the higher side key level to watch is Monday's high of 23,175. A move above the same will signal extension of the last two weeks pullback and open upside towards 23,500 levels in the coming sessions being the 50% retracement of the entire recent decline from 24,774 to 22,180.

"However, failure to reclaim Monday's high would signal corrective consolidation in the range of 23,175 to 22,500. Within the consolidation 22,800 is the immediate support area being recent breakout area. While 22,500-22,600 being the major support area from short term prospective," said Pabitro Mukherjee, Deputy Vice President-Research, Bajaj Broking.

"For day traders, 22,800-22,750/73,600-73,500 would act as key trend zones. As long as the market trades above these levels, the pullback trend is likely to continue. On the downside, the market could retest the 22,600–22,500/73,600–73,300 zone if it break below 22,750/73,500. On the other hand, if the market moves above 23,200/74800, sentiment could improve, and it could move towards 23,300–23,500/75100–75500," said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Neo.

4) India VIX rises 7.5%

India VIX, the volatility gauge, rose 7.5% on October 21, which indicates market participants expect short-term pressure.

Report by J. Jagannath

Source: Network18 

21/10/26, Indian benchmark indices are likely to open on a strong note on October 21, tracking GIFT Nifty, which was trading with a gain of 97 points at around 23,028.5 in early trade.

Indian benchmark indices snapped their two-day winning streak and witnessed heavy selling on October 19, amid elevated crude oil prices, weak global cues and selling in private banking stocks following disappointing earnings.

At close, the Sensex was down 876.37 points or 1.17 percent at 73,852.90, and the Nifty was down 257.20 points or 1.11 percent at 22,888.95.

The broader markets also remained under pressure with Nifty midcap and smallcap indices fell 1 percent each.

Biggest Nifty losers were Axis Bank, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Bajaj Finance, Trent, Infosys, while gainers included JSW Steel, Eicher Motors, SBI, L&T and ONGC.

Except PSU Bank (gained 2.2%), all other sectoral indices ended in the red with FMCG index down 1.2%, IT index down 1.3% and Private Bank index shed 1.8 percent.

Here is how financial markets across the globe fared overnight:

GIFT Nifty (Up)

GIFT Nifty was trading higher at around 23,028.5 in early trade, indicating a positive start for the domestic equity markets.

Asian Markets (Up)

Asian shares rose along with US equity-index futures as strong earnings from some of the biggest beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence boom revived optimism over the tech trade.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.9%, with two shares rising for every one that fell in the gauge. The Kospi Index

rose 3%, with chip heavyweights SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. gaining at least 5%.

US Equities (Gain)

The Dow rose 1% ​on Tuesday, outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 while the healthcare sector provided Wall Street's biggest boost and technology was its biggest drag.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 529.85 points, or 1.02%, to 52,495.88, the S&P 500 gained 21.84 points, or 0.28%, to 7,712.57 ​and the Nasdaq Composite lost 6.07 points, or 0.02%, to 26,424.82.

Dollar Index (Up)

The US dollar remained under pressure on Wednesday after slipping to a three-week low in the previous session, as a dip in Treasury yields and crude oil prices reduced the currency's appeal.

The US dollar index, which measures the currency against six peers, was steady at 101.79 after declining 0.2% on Tuesday.

US Bond Yield (Gains)

The yield on 10-year Treasury and 2-year Treasury were trading higher 5.12% and at 4.78%, respectively.

Asian Currencies (Mixed)

Asian currencies were mixed against the US dollar in early trade, with the Indonesian rupiah and Chinese renminbi leading gains, rising 0.3 percent and 0.099 percent, respectively. The Malaysian ringgit edged up 0.012 percent. Meanwhile, the South Korean won declined 0.013 percent, followed by the Taiwan dollar, which slipped 0.037 percent, and the Japanese yen, which fell 0.051 percent. The Philippine peso weakened 0.105 percent, while the Thai baht was the worst performer among the listed currencies, declining 0.196 percent against the previous close.

Crude (Up)

Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday on Middle East supply concerns, with traders wary of Red Sea shipping risks and threats to oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia.

Brent crude futures rose 85 cents, or 0.78%, to $109.64 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 76 cents, or 0.78%, to $98.58 per barrel.

Gold (Down)

Gold held a decline as conflicting signals on efforts to end the Iran war clouded the outlook for inflation and the Federal Reserve's path for interest rates.

Bullion was trading at around $4,115 an ounce, after falling more than 1% since the start of the week.

Fund Flow Action

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold equities worth around Rs 1,148 crore on October 19, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) remained net buyers, purchasing equities worth approximately Rs 3,200 crore during the session.

Hope you're all set for today's trade. We wish you a profitable day ahead.

Report by Rakesh Patil

Sourcr: Network18