31/08/26, Where are gold prices headed?

 The yellow metal has seen some sharp price action lately, pulling back from the 3-month highs it surged to earlier this week. International brokerage house Goldman Sachs predicts that the price of gold may rise to $4,900 per troy ounce by the end of 2026. This implies nearly 8% upside from the current $4,550 levels. 

It is important to note that this study was released at least 5 days before US Fed Chief Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole statement on August 28. After Warsh spoke about the risks of rising inflation, the market anticipated higher interest rates ahead. As a result, gold lost its support and fell more than 3% on Friday. It remains to be seen whether the headwinds for gold will continue in the next weeks and months to push it even deeper.

According to Goldman Sachs, the yellow metal is “expected to rise amid strong demand from central banks seeking to diversify their foreign currency reserves,” coupled with the market scaling back expectations of US rate hikes in 2026. The report has based the assessment primarily on gold buying by central banks globally and the impact therein.

Gold rate: Volatile run in 2026 so far

It’s been a rather topsy-turvy year for the gold rate so far. It scaled an all-time high of $5,600/oz on January 29, 2026, and slipped all the way below $4,000 by mid-July. The gold rate has since then rallied nearly 15% from the July lows. 

Goldman Sachs expects this upward trajectory in gold prices to continue for the rest of 2026. 

Gold rate today: Central bank buying a crucial factor

The brokerage house pointed out that gold buying by Central Bank is one of the main factors supporting prices. Central banks globally “have been diversifying their holdings using gold, which is considered less likely to be frozen than reserves held in foreign currencies,” they added. 

According to Goldman, this demand for gold from central banks is a “key structural positive.” This buying rate has increased since 2022, especially after the G7 countries decided to freeze the Russian Central Bank’s assets in Europe after the country invaded Ukraine. 

According to Lina Thomas, senior commodities analyst in Goldman Sachs Research, and Daan Struyven, co-head of Global Commodities Research, this will support a multi-year uptrend in the gold rate.  “We continue to see elevated central bank gold accumulation as a multi-year trend, as central banks diversify their reserves to hedge geopolitical and financial risks, consistent with recent survey evidence,” Thomas and Struyven stated.

Goldman Sachs Research estimates that the central banks may potentially buy 50 tonnes of gold on average every month this year, and this is significantly higher than the “average of 17 tonnes per month before 2022.”

In fact, the international brokerage house explained how “Central bank purchases accelerated to 100 tonnes per month in June 2026 (on a three-month seasonally adjusted basis) from 66 tonnes the previous month.”

According to Goldman Sachs Research, “China’s central bank was the largest identifiable buyer in the market in June.”

Interestingly, Goldman Sachs’ year-end forecast at $4,900/oz, though lower than their February forecast, still follows the same metric. In a podcast in mid-February, Lina Thomas, senior commodities analyst in Goldman Sachs Research, had identified the same trigger – “For gold, we’re still looking at the central banks, whether they’re still buying.”

Gold price and interest rate expectations

The other important factor that is seen impacting gold prices is the current interest rate expectations. Historically, one has seen that gold prices tend to be under pressure when interest rates rise. 

According to Thomas and Struyven, “We expect the Fed-related headwind to abate further, as our economists expect a lower inflation trend to keep the Fed on hold this year.”

Report written by Sumana Sarkar

Source:FinancialExpress

31/08/26, INDEX LEVELS

30/08/26, HDFC price

 HDFC Bank shares edged higher on August 28, recovering after falling to their lowest level in more than a year in the previous session, as Macquarie retained its ‘Outperform' rating on the lender with a target price of Rs 1,150.

The brokerage's target implies an upside of nearly 62 percent from HDFC Bank's Thursday closing price of Rs 712. However, Macquarie flagged uncertainty over the tenure of chief executive Sashidhar Jagdishan as a key near-term overhang for the stock.

HDFC Bank shares were trading at Rs 714.55 in afternoon trade, up 0.5 percent from the previous close. The stock has fallen 27.9 percent so far in 2026, sharply underperforming the Nifty 50, which is down 7.8 percent over the same period. The private-sector lender has a market capitalisation of more than Rs 11.01 lakh crore.

The modest recovery comes after HDFC Bank shares fell 2 percent on Thursday and touched their lowest level in over a year at around Rs 710. The decline followed reports of a lawsuit filed against the bank and some of its executives in the US.

Macquarie said uncertainty surrounding the bank's leadership remains an important issue for investors, with Jagdishan's current tenure scheduled to end on October 26, 2026. The brokerage sees two possible outcomes, which it currently considers equally probable. HDFC Bank could seek either a six-month extension for Jagdishan or a full three-year renewal of his tenure.

A six-month extension could signal that the bank is considering other candidates for the top job and needs additional time to recommend a successor to the Reserve Bank of India, according to Macquarie. Such an outcome could prolong uncertainty and potentially put further pressure on HDFC Bank shares, particularly as a new CEO may require time to settle into the role.

In contrast, a full three-year extension for Jagdishan would remove the immediate leadership uncertainty. Macquarie believes the stock could find support around current levels in such a scenario, with its subsequent performance increasingly determined by an improvement in the bank's fundamentals.

The brokerage said HDFC Bank's Nomination and Remuneration Committee is expected to evaluate and select a candidate before making a recommendation to the board. The board would subsequently recommend the appointment to the RBI for approval. Macquarie added that the central bank has recently taken around 30-45 days to approve CEO appointments after receiving recommendations from bank boards.

Apart from a temporary extension of Jagdishan's tenure, Macquarie flagged the possibility of further sharp compression in margins as another key risk. Meanwhile, Puneet Sharma, who has been designated as HDFC Bank's new chief financial officer, is scheduled to join the lender on September 1.

HDFC Bank reported a 5 percent year-on-year rise in June-quarter net profit to Rs 19,060 crore, while net interest income grew 7 percent to Rs 33,534 crore. Net interest margin stood at 3.26 percent on total assets. Asset quality improved, with gross NPAs declining to 1.17 percent of advances from 1.4 percent a year earlier.

Report by Shaleen Agrawal

Desclimer: we advises traders to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions

29/08/26, Chinese authorities told Nepal's Ministry of Foreign Affairs

 China has warned Nepal that a temporary lake formed in the upper reaches of the Lhende river system could breach its banks at any time, even as rescue efforts continue following devastating flash floods along the Nepal-Tibet border.

According to an India Today report, Chinese authorities told Nepal's Ministry of Foreign Affairs that the colour of the newly formed lake had been steadily darkening, which could signal an increased risk of a breach.

"The colour of the lake that began forming the day before yesterday is continuously becoming darker. This means that it could burst," the Chinese message said.

Beijing, however, indicated that the consequences of a breach could remain limited because the lake does not contain a very large volume of water. It said that even if part of the natural dam gives way, the maximum flow entering the river system could reach 500 cubic metres per second.

"If part of the dam breaks, the maximum water flow could be 500 cubic meters per second. It will remain confined within the river's banks," the message said.

The lake was created after debris from a glacial collapse formed a natural dam near the meeting point of the Chochen river on the Chinese side and the Purepu river on the Nepali side. The glacial collapse is believed to have triggered the catastrophic flash flooding that struck parts of Nepal and Tibet earlier this week.

China's Ministry of Water Resources said the lake's water level was continuing to rise, with around 2.5 million cubic metres of water accumulated by Friday. Earlier, Chinese authorities had estimated that another 3 million cubic metres could enter the lake over the following three days.

Chinese authorities have been using drones and satellites to observe the area and have also conducted flood modelling to estimate the possible impact of a breach. On Friday, the lake began spilling into the Lhende Khola and Trishuli rivers. By noon, China's state broadcaster CCTV assessed the resulting risk as manageable.

China advised people living downstream to remain alert, while the possibility of another flood has continued to concern authorities as Nepal deals with the aftermath of Wednesday's disaster. The flash floods have killed at least 587 people in Nepal, while seven deaths have been confirmed in Tibet.

Meanwhile, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma said 12 people from Assam who remain untraced in Nepal have now been identified by name and other details. Efforts are underway to contact them, determine their whereabouts and arrange their safe rescue.

"Till now we have been able to establish details of 12 people from Assam who are yet to be traced in Nepal. Efforts are underway to establish connection with them and safely rescue them," Sarma said in a social media post on Friday.

The list released with his update includes Rhitoupormo Brahma, Montri Basumatary, Soneswar Narzary, Rahul Daimary, Shatadal Nath, Pankaj Naug, Pankaj Barman, Arun Mahanta, Samar Bezbaruah, Dr Dipali Sarkar, Manash Kr Ghosh and Dr Tirtha Chaliha.

The 12 are from different parts of Assam, including Karbi Anglong, Golaghat, Hojai, Kamrup Metropolitan and Nalbari. Their whereabouts remain unconfirmed amid continuing rescue and relief operations, with damaged communication and transport links complicating efforts to reach people stranded or missing in the affected areas.

The Assam government is coordinating with agencies and authorities involved in the rescue operation as families await information on the safety of the 12 people

Source: Network18 

29/08/26, Biggest Oil Deal with Venezuela

 

28/08/26, Commodities News

 Dollar Index (Down)

The dollar was little changed against its major peers at 99.12 on Friday but is up 0.3% for the week.

US Bond Yield (Up)

The yield on 10-year Treasuries and 2-year Treasuries were down marginally, trading at 4.67% and 4.22%, respectively, in the early Friday trade.

Asian currencies (Up)

Asian currencies traded mostly higher against the US dollar. On the positive side, the South Korean Won rose 0.249%, while the Taiwan Dollar gained 0.19% and the Malaysian Ringgit advanced 0.124%. The Singapore Dollar and Chinese Renminbi edged up 0.055% and 0.036%, respectively, while the Japanese Yen was nearly flat, gaining 0.019%.

The Philippine Peso was the biggest decliner, falling 0.507%, followed by the Indonesian Rupiah, which slipped 0.107%, and the Thai Baht, down 0.03%.

Crude (Flat)

Oil prices fell on Friday and are on track to snap a two-week winning streak, despite settling higher in the previous session following a report that US President Donald Trump is not interested in returning to previous deal terms with Iran.

Gold (Flat)

Gold steadied near $4,600 an ounce as investors weighed the outlook for US interest rates ahead of a key speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh.

Fund Flow Action

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turned net sellers on August 27, offloading equities worth Rs 298 crore. Meanwhile, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) extended their buying streak, purchasing Indian equities worth Rs 4,977 crore.

Hope you're all set for today's trade. We wish you a profitable day ahead.

Report by Rakesh Patil 

Source: Network18