Amid the persistent US-Iran war and renewed volatility in the crude oil price, the Indian stock market witnessed sharp selling for the second straight session on Thursday.
The Nifty 50 index ended 227 points lower at 23,639, the BSE Sensex crashed 829 points and closed at 76,034, and the Bank Nifty index nosedived 634 points and closed at 55,100.
What does the Gift Nifty live chart and other triggers signal?
The Gift Nifty Live Chart is showing a negative start for the Indian stock market today. By 7:30 AM, the Gift Nifty index is trading 150 points upside at 23,578.
Decoding the Gift Nifty Live chart and other triggers, Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said, "The Indian stock market is expected to open with a sharp gap-down and trade with a weak undertone, reflecting heightened global risk aversion and growing geopolitical uncertainty. The deepening crisis in the Middle East, with no clear signs of de-escalation from any of the parties involved, has intensified concerns over potential disruptions to crude oil supply routes if the conflict persists-particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most strategically important energy corridors. These developments have pushed energy prices higher and driven the Indian rupee to a record low against the US dollar."
Crude oil price in focus
A key trigger for the weakness remains crude oil's renewed surge above $100 per barrel, which poses a direct challenge for India given its heavy dependence on energy imports. Rising oil prices increase input costs across sectors, raise inflation risks, and often dampen investor confidence in equities.
"Crude oil prices have surged sharply, with Brent crude once again approaching the $100 per barrel mark, as markets begin pricing in the possibility of supply disruptions. For India, which imports more than 85% of its crude oil requirements, sustained strength in oil prices poses a significant macroeconomic challenge. Higher oil prices typically widen the current account deficit, increase inflationary pressure, weaken the Indian rupee, and raise operating costs for sectors heavily dependent on energy, such as aviation, logistics, chemicals, and manufacturing," said Ponmudi R of Enrich Money.
Gold, silver rates today
Following profit-booking in WTI Crude Oil Prices in the early morning session on Friday, gold and silver rates showed some resilience around their previous close. By 6:45 AM, the COMEX gold rate today was oscillating around $5,120/oz, and the COMEX silver rate today was oscillating around $85.250/oz.
Speaking on the outlook for silver and gold rates today, Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert, said the gold rate is in the $5,080 to $5,050 per ounce range. The broader range of the COMEX gold rate today is $5,000 to $5,200 per ounce. Likewise, the COMEX silver rate today is in the $78 to $88 per ounce range, and the broader range is $70 to $95 per ounce. The SEBI-registered expert said that gold and silver rates are expected to move in the opposite direction to oil and the US dollar.
USD vs INR
The Indian National Rupee (INR) touched a fresh intra-day low on Thursday and closed the session 24 paise down at its lowest level of 92.25 against the US Dollar (USD), dragged down by elevated crude oil prices and massive withdrawal of foreign capital.
The Indian currency, caught in the crossfire amid the raging West Asia war, was weighed down by heavy selling in domestic equity markets and a strengthening greenback, forex traders said.
Speaking on the outlook of the Indian Rupee against the US Dollar, Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity & Currency at LKP Securities, said, "The Indian Rupee traded weaker, slipping 0.27% below the 92.25 mark, as the dollar index hovered above 99$ and volatile crude prices kept pressure on the currency. Oil movements remain a key driver for the rupee, with crude on the domestic exchange rising another 4% today, which tends to widen India's import bill and weigh on the currency."
The LKP Securities expert said the expected trading range for the Indian Rupee is 91.45-92.75, while market participants will closely assess U.S. initial jobless claims on Thursday, & US GDP data on Friday.
FII-DII data
The FIIs remained net sellers in the cash segment by selling Indian shares worth ₹7,050 crore. In the index futures, FIs sold out shares worth ₹3,108 crore and in the option index, they sold out Indian shares worth ₹11,325 crore. However, DIIs remained net buyers in the cash segment, adding shares worth ₹7,450 crore to their portfolio.
India VIX today
Market volatility remains elevated, with India VIX hovering around 21, signalling heightened investor caution and expectations of wider market swings. A VIX at these levels typically reflects a risk-off environment, in which traders anticipate sharper intraday volatility following recent market corrections.
"Based on the current VIX reading, the market is broadly pricing in an expected 6-7% movement in the Nifty over the next 30 days, indicating that participants expect continued turbulence. Elevated volatility also tends to keep options premiums high, as investors increasingly hedge their portfolios against downside risks," said Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder of Livelong Wealth.
Stock market today
Speaking on the outlook for the Nifty 50 and Sensex today, Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, said that 23,850/76,700 would act as trend-defining levels. Below this, the market could slip to 23,500-23,350/75,700-75,300. On the flip side, above 23,850/76,700, a pullback move could extend to 24,000-24,100/77,000-77,500.
"The intraday market texture is volatile and non-directional; hence, level-based trading would be the ideal strategy for traders," said Shrikant Chouhan of Kotak Securities.
On the outlook of the Bank Nifty today, Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said, "The Bank Nifty closed below the crucial support level of 55,300, indicating strong bearish control over the index. However, on the hourly chart, a positive divergence in the oversold zone suggests a short-term recovery or rebound. Despite this, prevailing market panic and Bank Nifty's high beta continue to keep overall sentiment weak. If the index extends its decline, the next key support is placed around 54,500, while on the upside, any pullback or recovery is likely to face resistance near the 56200 levels."
Stocks to buy today
Regarding stocks to buy today, stock market experts - Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager - Technical Research at Anand Rathi, and Shiju Koothupalakkal, Senior Manager - Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher, recommended these five buy-or-sell stocks for intraday trading: NTPC, Coal India, SAIL, Axis Bank, Tata Motors PV, TD Power Systems, and BHEL.
Sumeet Bagadia's stock recommendations today
1] NTPC: Buy at ₹391, Target ₹420, Stop Loss ₹377; and
2] Coal India: Buy at ₹470, Target ₹505, Stop Loss ₹453.
Ganesh Dongre's buy or sell stocks
3] SAIL: Buy at ₹154, Target ₹165, Stop Loss ₹148;
4] Axis Bank: Buy at ₹1235, Target ₹1265, Stop Loss ₹1210; and
5] Tata Motors PV: Buy at ₹325, Target ₹345, Stop Loss ₹310.
Shiju Koothupalakkal's intraday stocks for today
6] Ather Energy: Buy at ₹710, Target ₹740, Stop Loss ₹695;
7] TD Power Systems: Buy at ₹812, Target ₹850, Stop Loss ₹795; and
8] BHEL: Buy at ₹267.85, Target ₹285, Stop Loss ₹260.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not of us. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
