21/02/26, US Supreme Court decision on Trump's tariffs: The US Supreme Court struck down the reciprocal tariffs imposed by the Donald Trump administration on its trading partners.

Hours after this US Supreme Court decision on tariffs, US President Donald Trump signed off on a 10% global tariff on all countries. So, after the series of these developments, global markets, including Dalal Street, are expected to react on Monday. Gold and silver prices are also expected to react to such developments in the US, as there is significant uncertainty regarding Trump's tariffs and the repayment of nearly $175 billion in tariffs collected by the US administration after they were imposed on trade partners.

According to market experts, the US Supreme Court's decision on tariffs is expected to bring relief to Indian exporters with significant exposure to the US market. The US Supreme Court decision has triggered positive sentiment, and the Indian stock market is expected to open with an upside gap on Monday, they said. They said Gift Nifty closed around 200 points higher than the Nifty 50 close, signalling positive sentiment on Dalal Street after this US Supreme Court decision. They predicted a positive opening for gold and silver prices as uncertainty will be very high when the market opens on Monday.

What US Supreme Court decision on tariffs mean for Dalal Street?

Expecting a gap-up opening on Monday when trade activity resumes on Dalal Street, Seema Srivastava, Senior Research Analyst at SMC Global Securities, said the US Supreme Court's decision to strike down Trump's global tariffs is a huge win for Indian exporters, who were struggling with tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). These tariffs had impacted Indian exports worth over $50 billion, with labour-intensive sectors like textiles and gems facing significant challenges.

"The decision effectively eliminates the 18% reciprocal tariff agreed upon under the India-US trade framework, meaning 55% of India's exports to the US will now be subject to only 10%," Seema Srivastava of SMC Global Securities said.

However, Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet, said the US Supreme Court decision on Trump's tariffs does not affect sector-specific tariffs imposed under separate statutory authorities. Duties on steel, aluminium, automobiles, semiconductors, and other strategic products remain firmly in place. This ensures that targeted protection for key industries continues despite the broader setback to the reciprocal tariff framework.

What Gift Nifty signals?

Expecting a gap-up opening for the Indian stock market, Avinash Gorakshkar, a SEBI-registered fundamental equity analyst, said, "When these developments took place, the Indian stock market was closed, but the Gift Nifty was open. Generally, the Gift Nifty index and the Nifty 50 index closed with marginal differences. But on Friday, the Nifty 50 index closed at 25,571, while the Gift Nifty 50 futures for February 26, 2026, expiry closed at 25,764, around 200 points higher than the Nifty 50 index. So, I won't be surprised if the BSE Sensex opens more than 500 points higher on Monday."

Impact on gold, silver rates

On how the US Supreme Court's decision on Trump's tariffs may impact gold and silver prices, Sugandha Sachdeva of SS WealthStreet said the ruling injects renewed uncertainty into global trade policy. She said that President Trump has publicly criticised the US Supreme Court decision and announced to introduce an additional 10% global tariff, underscoring his continued commitment to protectionist trade policy.

"These evolving trade dynamics, combined with heightened geopolitical tensions, continue to underpin safe-haven demand. The ongoing US military buildup in the Middle East has intensified market anxiety. With diplomatic deadlines in place and retaliation risks looming, geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated. Overall, trade uncertainty, geopolitical risk premium, and macroeconomic crosscurrents continue to provide a structurally supportive backdrop for gold and silver," said Sugandha Sachdeva of SS WealthStreet.

Outlook for the gold rate today

Speaking on the outlook of gold rate today, Sugandha Sachdeva said, "Technically, gold price remains well supported near $4,880 per ounce and ₹1,49,800 per 10 gm in the domestic market. Immediate resistance is seen around $5,100 to $5120 per ounce and ₹1,61,000 per 10 gm. A sustained break above these levels could open the path toward $5,350 internationally and ₹1,75,000 per 10 gm domestically."

Outlook for the silver rate today

On the outlook for silver rate today, Sugandha Sachdeva said, "Silver price is finding support near $70 per ounce and ₹2,25,000 per kg (closing basis), while resistance is placed around $86 per ounce and ₹2,75,000 to ₹2,78,000 per kg in the May contract."

The SS WealthStreet expert said that a decisive breakout above resistance, particularly if trade tensions or geopolitical risks escalate, could trigger a fresh upward leg in silver towards ₹3,50,000 per kg. With Chinese participants expected to return on 24th February from the Lunar New Year holiday break, liquidity and directional conviction could improve, potentially setting the stage for a sustained move once key technical thresholds are cleared.

source: Mint

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only.  We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

20/02/26, The Live Mint Report

 The 30-pack Sensex ended the session 1,236 points, or 1.48%, lower at 82,498.14, while its 50-stock counterpart, the Nifty 50, settled the day at 25,454.35, suffering a loss of 365 points, or 1.41%. The Bank Nifty index crashed 811 points and closed at 60,739.

The broad-based selloff also impacted second-rung mid- and small-cap indices, as the BSE 150 MidCap Index crashed 1.54% and the BSE 250 SmallCap Index declined 1.16%. Investors lost about ₹7 lakh crore as the overall market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms dropped to nearly ₹465 lakh crore during the day from ₹472 lakh crore in the previous session.

Speaking on the outlook of the Indian stock market today, Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money, said, "The sell-off was broad-based across banking, auto, FMCG, metals, and aviation stocks, reflecting a clear risk-off sentiment driven by escalating US-Iran tensions, a hawkish US Fed outlook, a spike in India VIX to 13.46 (up over 10%), and sustained FII pressure, with DIIs also turning net sellers in the previous session."

Expecting a weak opening on Friday, Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder of Livelong Wealth, said the Gift Nifty today indicates a slightly bearish start for the Nifty 50, extending yesterday's negative momentum.

US-Iran war

Awaiting President Donald Trump's orders, a massive military buildup, including warships, fighter jets and refuelling aircraft, is hovering in West Asia. The target would be Iran if the ongoing negotiations over Tehran's nuclear programme fail to produce an agreement.

According to CNN and CBS, the US military is ready to launch strikes against Iran as early as this weekend, but Trump has not yet made a final decision. Russia and Iran, too, have conducted naval exercises in the Sea of Oman to deter any "unilateral action" in the region.

Gold, silver rates today

Following the escalation in US-Iran tensions, gold and silver opened today with an upside gap. The COMEX gold rate today opened higher and touched an intraday high of $5,033.39/oz, logging an intraday gain of nearly 0.50%. Likewise, the COMEX silver rate today opened with an upside gap and touched today's high of $78.655/oz, recording an intraday high of around 0.75% within a few minutes of the Opening Bell.

Speaking on the outlook of the silver, gold rates today, Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert, said, "Gold and silver rates are rising due to the escalation in the US-Iran tension. This has increased demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets."

Anuj Gupta said that the gold rate today is in $4,850 to $5,200 per ounce range, whereas the silver rate today is in $70 to $85 per ounce range. He said that the gold rate today in India is in the ₹1,50,000 per 10 gm to ₹1,58,000 per 10 gm range, while the silver rate today in India is in the ₹2,30,000 per kg to ₹2,55,000 per kg range.

FII-DII data

Both FIIs and DIIs ended the day as net sellers. The FIIs sold out Indian shares worth ₹881 crore, whereas the DIIs sold out shares worth ₹596 crore.

USD vs INR

The Indian Rupee is expected to trade in a range of 89 to 90 against the US dollar by the end of fiscal year 2027, supported by a softer dollar and a manageable current account deficit (CAD), according to a report by CareEdge Ratings.

The report highlighted that the USD/INR strengthened from recent lows of around 92 to approximately 90.6 following the trade deal with the United States and the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the European Union.

Market Setup:

Speaking on the outlook of the Nifty 50 today, Nilesh Jain, VP- Head of Technical and Derivative research at Centrum Finverse, said, "The Nifty 50 index has slipped below its key short-term moving averages and formed a bearish engulfing candlestick, indicating a potential bearish reversal. Immediate resistance is at the 100-DMA near 25,700. On the downside, the crucial support of the 200-DMA is positioned at 25,310, and a decisive break below this could open further downside towards 25,100 levels."

On the outlook of the Bank Nifty today, Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said, "The Bank Nifty has formed a bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart, suggesting a potential reversal or at least a pause following the recent rise. The bullish trend appears to be waning after a large red candle formed on the daily chart. The RSI has entered a bearish crossover and is trending lower, indicating weakening momentum. Overall, the sentiment looks weak. On the lower end, support is seen at 60,500/60000, while on the higher end, resistance is placed at 61,200."

Stocks to buy today

Regarding stocks to buy today, stock market experts - Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking; Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager of Technical Research at Anand Rathi; and Shiju Koothupalakkal, Senior Manager of Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher, recommended these seven intraday stocks for today: UPL, Biocon, HDFC Life, Fortis Healthcare, Tata Technologies, Samman Capital, and MM Forging.

Sumeet Bagadia's stock recommendations for today

1] UPL: Buy at ₹765, Target ₹820, Stop Loss ₹738; and

2] Biocon: Buy at ₹383, Target ₹410, Stop Loss ₹370.

Ganesh Dongre's buy or sell stocks

3] HDFC Life: Buy at ₹732, Target ₹758, Stop Loss ₹715;

4] Fortis Healthcare: Buy at ₹906, Target ₹940, Stop Loss ₹890; and

5] Tata Technologies: Buy at ₹602, Target ₹635, Stop Loss ₹590.

Shiju Koothupalakkal's intraday stocks for today

6] Samman Capital: Buy at ₹151.35, Target ₹161, Stop Loss ₹147; and

7] MM Forging: Buy at ₹488.50, Target ₹520, Stop Loss ₹478.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

20/02/26, Gold has been regarded as one of the safest investments for many years because it has a proven track record of preserving wealth during periods of inflation and market volatility.

 As a valuable metal, gold has served for centuries not only as a symbol of wealth but also as a reliable store of value, making it a popular choice for investors seeking a measure of protection during uncertain times. We provide you with up-to-date gold prices in India. Please note that these prices are current and updated daily, and are provided here for informational purposes only.

What are today's gold rates for 18, 22, and 24 carat in major cities?

Gold pricing in India is determined by both global and local factors. The international price of gold, the increase of the U.S. Dollar, and local consumption for jewelry, especially around holidays, all determine the intrinsic value of gold. Consequently, the buyer in India must contend with listings that vary based on broader economic factors and seasonal market factors.

The price of gold in India today is Rs 15,650 per gram for 24 karat gold, Rs 14,346 per gram for 22 karat gold, and Rs 11,738 per gram for 18 karat gold. The price of gold has shown volatility in the last few days. The value of 18, 22, and 24 carat gold has shown a minimal change from yesterday's price for 1 gram of Gold. The price per gram yesterday(24 carat gold rate per gram) was Rs 15, 649 which shows Re 1 change to Rs 16,650 today.

Today 24 Carat Gold Rate Per Gram in India (INR)

Gram	Today (₹)	Yesterday (₹)	Change
1	15,650	15,649	+1
8	1,25,200	1,25,192	+8
10	1,56,500	1,56,490	+10
100	15,65,000	15,64,900	+100

Indian Major Cities Gold Rates Today (1 gram)

City	24K Today (₹)	22K Today (₹)	18K Today (₹)
Chennai	15,819	14,501	12,401
Mumbai	15,650	14,346	11,738
Delhi	15,665	14,361	11,753
Kolkata	15,650	14,346	11,738
Bangalore	15,650	14,346	11,738
Hyderabad	15,650	14,346	11,738
Kerala	15,650	14,346	11,738
Pune	15,650	14,346	11,738
Vadodara	15,655	14,351	11,743
Ahmedabad	15,655	14,351	11,743
Jaipur	15,665	14,361	11,753
Lucknow	15,665	14,361	11,753
Coimbatore	15,819	14,501	12,401
Madurai	15,819	14,501	12,401
Vijayawada	15,650	14,346	11,738
Patna	15,655	14,351	11,743
Nagpur	15,650	14,346	11,738
Chandigarh	15,665	14,361	11,753
Surat	15,655	14,351	11,743
Bhubaneswar	15,650	14,346	11,738

What are the silver rates alongside gold for February 20?

Currently, the price of silver in India is Rs 270.10 per gram and Rs 2,70,100 per kilogram. Although it is often less expensive than gold, silver is still a common choice for investors and jewelry buyers, especially in countries that buy more silver ornaments than gold. The price of silver also depends on the global market, as the demand for silver for industrial use and manufacturing also plays a large part in price fluctuations.

Today Silver Rate Per Gram in India (INR)

Gram	Today (₹)	Yesterday (₹)	Change (₹)
1	270.10	270.00	+0.10
8	2,160.80	2,160.00	+0.80
10	2,701	2,700	+1
100	27,010	27,000	+10
1000	2,70,100	2,70,000	+100

Indian Major Cities Silver Rates Today

City	10 Gram (₹)	100 Gram (₹)	1 Kg (₹)
Chennai	2,701	27,010	2,70,100
Mumbai	2,701	27,010	2,70,100
Delhi	2,701	27,010	2,70,100
Kolkata	2,701	27,010	2,70,100
Bangalore	2,701	27,010	2,70,100
Hyderabad	2,701	27,010	2,70,100
Kerala	2,701	27,010	2,70,100
Pune	2,701	27,010	2,70,100
Vadodara	2,701	27,010	2,70,100
Ahmedabad	2,701	27,010	2,70,100

20/02/26, The Geopolitcal risks are back on the table as the US deployed naval ships in the Middle East, sending shockwaves to the stock markets as key indices like Dow Jones fell 0.5% on Thursday.

The S&P500 and NASDAQ also closed 0.3% lower following the developments in the Middle East.

Investors also trimmed their bets ahead of key economic data scheduled to be released on Friday. The core PCE inflation data will set the tone for the Federal Reserve policy decision trajectory after inflation numbers came in below expectations and near the targeted range of 2%.

The regional deployment of US naval ships and aircraft carriers has increased the risk of a US military attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, missile stockpile, or to topple its regime. Following the development, the crude oil prices too spiked nearly 2% above the $70 mark for the Brent Crude oil.

At the stock-specific level, the retail chain owner, Walmart, posted better-than-expected earnings for the quarter. However, the company provided for a weak guidance for 2026, which soured the investor sentiment for the stock and for the broader markets. Following the development, Walmart shares tumbled 1.3% on Thursday.

On the currency front, the US dollar is heading for a strong weekly gain after robust economic data and hawkish Federal Reserve commentary in the FOMC minutes boosted the demand for the greenback.

source: Upstox

20/02/26, things related to today's Market

The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open lower on Friday amid mixed cues from global markets as rising fears of a military conflict between US and Iran weighed on investor sentiment.

Asian markets traded mixed, while the US stock market ended lower, with all three major Wall Street indices closing in the red.

On Thursday, the Indian stock market ended sharply lower, snapping its three-day winning streak, amid cautious global cues.

The Sensex crashed 1,236.11 points, or 1.48%, to close at 82,498.14, while the Nifty 50 settled 365.00 points, or 1.41%, lower at 25,454.35.

"Even a single session of profit booking in the banking index significantly impacted overall market mood, as other sectors failed to provide meaningful support and also closed lower. We therefore recommend maintaining a cautious stance and waiting for signs of stability before initiating fresh positions," said Ajit Mishra - SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.

Here are key global market cues for Sensex today:

Asian Markets

Asian markets traded mixed on Friday, following overnight losses on Wall Street indexes and rising Iran-US tensions. Japan's Nikkei 225 declined 1.04%, while the Topix fell 1.12%. South Korea's Kospi rose 0.66%, but the Kosdaq dropped 0.19%. Markets on mainland China and Hong Kong are closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.

Gift Nifty Today

Gift Nifty was trading around 25,418 level, a discount of nearly 28 points from the Nifty futures' previous close, indicating a negative start for the Indian stock market indices.

Wall Street

US stock market ended lower on Thursday, weighed down by losses in private equity companies and weakness in Walmart and Apple shares.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.54% to 49,395.16, while the S&P 500 declined 0.28% to end the session at 6,861.89. The Nasdaq closed 0.31% lower at 22,682.73.

Apple stock price dropped 1.4%, Nvidia stock price eased 0.04%, AMD shares gained 1.62%, Tesla shares rose 0.09%, and Walmart share price dipped 1.4%. Blue Owl shares tumbled 6%, Apollo Global Management, Ares, KKR & Co and Carlyle Group shares all fell between 1.9% and 5.2%.

US-Iran Tensions

US President Donald Trump warned Iran that it must make a deal over its nuclear program or "really bad things" will happen, and set a deadline of 10 to 15 days, drawing a threat from Tehran to retaliate against US bases in the region if attacked.

US Trade Deficit

US trade deficit in goods expanded to a new record in 2025. The US goods deficit stood at $1.24 trillion for all of last year, widening slightly from 2024's level. When both goods and services were considered, the overall US trade deficit for 2025 narrowed to $901.5 billion, from $903.5 billion in 2024. In the month of December, the overall deficit grew more than expected by 32.6% to $70.3 billion, as exports fell and imports climbed.

US Jobless Claims

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 23,000 to a seasonally adjusted 206,0000 for the week ended February 14. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 225,000 claims for the latest week. Last week's drop marked a significant decline in claims since they jumped to 232,000 at the end of January.

Japan Inflation

Japan's annual core consumer inflation hit 2.0% in January, marking the slowest pace in two years. The year-on-year increase in the core consumer price index matched a median market forecast and slowed from a 2.4% gain in December.

Meanwhile, the flash Japan composite PMI increased to 53.8 in February from 53.1 in January, marking the fastest pace of growth since May 2023.

Dollar

The dollar was poised to cap its strongest weekly performance since October. Against a basket of currencies, the US dollar index hovered near one-month peak and was last at 97.89. It was on track for a weekly gain of more than 1%, which would mark its strongest performance in more than four months, Reuters reported.

Sterling was near a one-month low at $1.3457 and headed for a weekly drop of nearly 1.5%. The euro was down 0.02% at $1.1768 and set to lose 0.8% for the week. Japanese yen dipped 0.05% to 155.08 per dollar.

Gold Prices

Gold prices steadied near $5,000 an ounce, after two days of gains, amid rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Spot gold price eased 0.1% to $4,990,09 an ounce, while silver price fell 0.7% to $77.99.

Crude Oil Prices

Crude oil prices steadied near a six-month high on mounting fears of a military conflict between the United States and Iran. Brent crude oil price rose 0.17% to $71.78 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 0.11% to $66.50.

(Report by Mint with inputs from Reuters)

20/02/26, Stocks to Watch Today: Today's market watch highlights a compelling lineup of stocks to watch today as major Indian corporates announce strategic investments, partnerships, and operational updates.

 From Reliance Industries unveiling a massive Rs 10 lakh crore AI investment and TCS partnering with OpenAI on scalable AI infrastructure, to Cochin Shipyard winning an LNG vessel contract, investor attention is sharpening across sectors.

Banking names like Karur Vysya Bank and Bandhan Bank make rate and service announcements, while Dr Reddy's and Zydus Lifesciences expand their healthcare portfolios. Industrial and infrastructure plays such as Texmaco Rail, RailTel, Waaree Energies, and CIE Automotive India also feature key developments, making this a busy day on the Indian bourses.

Here's the list of stocks to watch in today's trading session:

TCS (Tata Consultancy Services)

Announce AI Infrastructure Partnership with OpenAI

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), part of the Tata Group, and OpenAI on Thursday announced a strategic partnership anchored by plans to build 100 megawatts (MW) of AI infrastructure in India, scalable to 1 gigawatt (GW). The partnership also includes joint initiatives to accelerate enterprise AI adoption, develop industry-specific solutions, and expand AI skilling for Indian youth.

Cochin Shipyard

Signs LNG Vessel Contract with CMA CGM

Cochin Shipyard Limited (CSL) has signed a major contract with French shipping major CMA CGM for the construction of LNG dual-fuel vessels. Officials said the move is expected to boost India's global shipbuilding footprint and align with the green maritime transition.

RailTel

Secures Rs 35.6 Crore Signalling Project

RailTel Corporation of India has secured an order worth about Rs 35.6 crore for a railway signalling project after receiving a Letter of Acceptance from the Deputy Chief Signal & Telecommunication Engineer.

Waaree Energies

In Talks for Rs 8,000 Crore Battery Facility

Waaree Energies is in discussions with the Andhra government and other states to set up a proposed greenfield battery manufacturing facility involving an investment of over Rs 8,000 crore.

Karur Vysya Bank

Reduces One-Year MCLR to 9.10 per cent

Karur Vysya Bank has reduced its one-year Marginal Cost of Funds-Based Lending Rate (MCLR) to 9.10 per cent from 9.20 per cent.

Dr Reddy's

Acquires Progynova Brands for India

Dr Reddy's Laboratories has forayed into the hormone replacement therapy segment by acquiring trademarks of speciality brands Progynova and Cyclo-Progynova and related assets for India from UK-headquartered Mercury Pharma Group for USD 32.15 million, according to a company statement.

CIE Automotive India

Reports 10.4 per cent Rise in Q3 Profit

CIE Automotive India reported a 10.4 per cent year-on-year increase in consolidated net profit for the third quarter, with earnings rising to Rs 204.3 crore compared with Rs 185 crore in the same period last year.

Bandhan Bank

Facilitates Assam e-GRAS Payments

Bandhan Bank on Thursday said it has facilitated state tax and non-tax payments for customers in Assam through the Assam e-GRAS portal, allowing transactions through both online and offline channels.

Zydus Lifesciences

Launches Indigenous Biosimilar

Zydus Lifesciences on Thursday said it has launched its first indigenously developed biosimilar for the treatment of visual impairment.

Texmaco Rail

Signs JV with RVNL

Texmaco Rail & Engineering has signed a Joint Venture Shareholders' Agreement with Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL) to build India's next-generation rolling stock powerhouse and expand its global rail EPC footprint.

Reliance Industries

Announces Rs 10 Lakh Crore Investment

Reliance Industries Chairman Mukesh Ambani on Thursday announced Rs 10 lakh crore investment by his group, saying it aims to revolutionise artificial intelligence as it did with mobile data.

Stock Market on February 19

The equity benchmark indices, 30-share BSE Sensex, tumbled 1,236 points or 1.5 per cent while NSE Nifty50 closed near 25,450 on Thursday, February 19, after an across-the-board sell-off amid escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran.

source: Economic Times

(Disclaimer: The above article is meant for informational purposes only, and should not be considered as any investment advice. We suggest  readers to consult their financial advisors before making any money-related decisions.)

19/02/26, Did Trump tariffs really slash US Trade deficit by 78%? Here's what actually happening

• Imports surged in January and March ahead of new duties, pushing the deficit to a record $140.5 billion in March.
• After reciprocal tariffs of at least 10%, and much higher rates on countries including China, took effect in April, imports fell sharply.
• Customs revenue reached $264 billion in 2025, up about $185 billion from a year earlier, helping trim the annual budget deficit to $1.67 trillion.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday touted a 78% decline in the U.S. trade deficit under his tariff regime, citing a striking figure that hinges on a selective reading of turbulent monthly trade data.

In a Truth Social post, Trump said, "The United States trade deficit has been reduced by 78% because of the tariffs being charged to other companies and countries. It will go into positive territory during this year, for the first time in many decades. Thank you for your attention to this matter!"

Trump's Math Behind His Claim

The U.S. trade deficit widened to a near-record $131.4 billion in January 2025, according to Commerce Department data, as companies rushed to import goods ahead of sweeping tariffs promised by the Trump administration. By October 2025, the monthly deficit had narrowed to about $29.4 billion, the smallest since 2009, marking a pullback in imports.



A comparison between January's $131.4 billion deficit and October's $29.4 billion gap yields a drop of about 78%, a calculation that appears to underpin Trump's claim. However, the comparison pairs a peak in import front-loading ahead of tariffs with a subsequent decline in imports, rather than reflecting the full-year trade picture.

Through November 2025, the year-to-date trade deficit stood at roughly $833 billion, which is 4.1% higher than the same period in 2024.

Why Monthly Trade Numbers Swung So Sharply

The large swings in 2025 were closely tied to tariff timing. In January and March, companies accelerated imports, particularly pharmaceuticals, industrial supplies and gold, ahead of anticipated tariff increases. March alone saw the trade gap widen to a record $140.5 billion as businesses raced to secure goods before new duties were announced.

In early April, Trump unveiled reciprocal tariffs of at least 10% on all exporters to the U.S., with higher rates on about 60 nations. China faced tariffs of well above 50% on many goods, while the European Union, Japan, and Vietnam were also targeted with elevated duties.

Following the April rollout, imports dropped sharply. In April, the trade deficit narrowed by a record 55.5% from the prior month as imports fell the most on record. By August, the monthly deficit had narrowed to $59.6 billion, and by October it had fallen further to $29.4 billion, signaling the post-tariff import slowdown.

Gold imports, in particular, distorted the picture. Heavy inflows of non-monetary gold helped push the U.S. trade deficit to a record $140.5 billion in March. When those shipments reversed, the monthly gap narrowed sharply, falling to $59.6 billion in August and $29.4 billion in October.

What The Full-Year Picture Shows

Even with October's drop to $29.4 billion, the cumulative figures tell a different story. Through November 2025, the cumulative deficit reached about $833 billion, up 4.1% from the same period in 2024.

Bilateral balances moved sharply month on month: the goods deficit with China narrowed to $24.8 billion in March and fell further in June, while the shortfall with Ireland more than doubled to $29.3 billion in March before retreating as pharmaceutical imports cooled.

The narrowing in specific months also boosted short-term GDP calculations. Net exports shaved almost 5 percentage points off first-quarter GDP as imports surged, before flipping to contribute about 5 percentage points to growth in the second quarter as imports fell back and the monthly trade gap narrowed.

Higher Tariffs Narrow Budget Gap

Tariffs have also increased customs revenue. For calendar year 2025, tariff revenue totaled $264 billion, up roughly $185 billion from the previous year, helping narrow the federal budget deficit to $1.67 trillion, the smallest in three years.

However, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that higher tariffs could reduce deficits by about $3 trillion over the next decade. Trump's 2025 tax law and immigration policies are projected to increase deficits by $4.7 trillion and $500 billion, respectively. Net outlays on interest are also projected to surge, pushing total deficits higher over time.

The CBO has warned that the U.S. remains on an "unsustainable" fiscal path, with deficits projected to exceed 5% of GDP for years to come.

However, legal uncertainty still hangs over the durability of the tariff regime itself. The Supreme Court has twice declined to issue a ruling on the legality of President Donald Trump's tariffs after hearing oral arguments in October and November 2025. The court has scheduled Feb. 20, as well as Feb. 24 and 25, as upcoming opinion days where justices may finally release their decision.

How Did Stocktwits Users React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment toward the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) was 'neutral' amid 'high' message volume, while sentiment toward the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was 'neutral' amid 'normal' message volume.

One user said, "The idea that this administration won't admit Americans pay the tariffs is the most 1984 esq thing this country has ever witnessed from our government."

Another user suggested that an upcoming Supreme Court opinion day could focus on Trump's reciprocal tariffs.

So far this year, DIA has outperformed, up 3.5%, compared with SPY up 0.6% and QQQ down 1.4%.

19/02/26, Shares of Netweb Technologies climbed for a third straight session on Thursday, February 19. In the last three trading sessions Netweb Technologies shares have jumped as much as 21%, data from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) showed

In intraday deals, Netweb Technologies surged as much as 9.65% to hit a high of ₹3,700 amid spike in trading activity.

Netweb Technologies shares came under buying interest after the company on Wednesday informed exchanges that it has launched a 'Make in India' AI supercomputing systems powered by NVIDIA.

In its press release, Netweb said the company has "powered a new era of computing in India by introducing one of the world's most powerful AI infrastructure solutions - a 'Make in India' AI supercomputer, the Tyrone Camarero GB200 system - and the petascale personal compute system, the Tyrone Camarero Spark."

"Netweb today announces a new class of AI computing for India with the launch of Tyrone Camarero Spark, which is one of the world's smallest AI supercomputers, delivering NVIDIA's AI stack in a compact desktop form factor," the press release added.

It combines NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs, NVIDIA Grace CPUs, NVIDIA Networking, NVIDIA CUDA-X libraries, and NVIDIA AI software stack, accelerating agentic and physical AI development to address the requirements of millions of AI developers in India.

The system, Netweb said, packs a petaflop of AI performance and 128GB of unified memory into a compact desktop form factor-based system, helping a huge customer base of AI developers in India to run inference on AI models with up to 200 billion parameters and locally fine-tune models of up to 70 billion parameters.

Netweb Technologies Q3 earnings

Netweb Technologies last month reported a net profit of ₹79 crore in the third quarter of current financial year, marking a surge of 2.43 times or 143% from ₹30 crore in the same period last year.

The company's revenue in December quarter jumped 141% to ₹805 crore compared with ₹334 crore in the year-ago period.

Meanwhile, Netweb Technologies shares were witnessing higher than usual trading activity. On the BSE, as many as 3.45 lakh shares changed hands compared with an average of 1.64 lakh shares traded daily in the past two weeks.

On the NSE, a total of 45.65 lakh shares changed hands.

As of 10:46 am, Netweb Technologies shares traded 6.3% higher at ₹3,589, outperforming the NIFTY 500 index which was down 0.35%.

source: Upstox

Disclaimer: This article is purely for informational purposes and should not be considered investment advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

19/02/26, Hindustan Unilever Ltd

HUL share price: Shares of Hindustan Unilever Ltd, a key fast-moving consumer goods player, were trading in green on Thursday, February 19, after the company announced that it will invest ₹2,000 crore to enhance manufacturing capacity in fast-growing premium categories across beauty and wellbeing and home care segments.

The stock was up 0.16% to ₹2,327.20 apiece on the National Stock Exchange at 9:18 am. Its market capitalisation stood at ₹5,47,149.32 crore.

The company's board on February 18 approved the proposed investment, according to an exchange filing. The investment will occur over a period of two years across multiple locations.

This proposed investment is in line with the company's strategy of focusing on fewer, larger bets and strengthening its presence in high-growth demand spaces, including premium skin care, hair care, personal care and home care liquids, said HUL, which owns popular brands like Surf Excel, Rin, Domex, Vim, Cif, Wheel and Comfort in the home care segment.

The company will leverage advanced automation and digital technologies, said HUL, adding that the capacity expansion is expected to improve supply chain efficiency and agility.

This will also allow HUL, which operates with brands such as Lakmé, Pond's, Dove, Vaseline, Glow & Lovely, Sunsilk, among others, in the beauty & wellbeing segments, to have a 'faster response' to evolving consumer needs.

"The initiative is aimed at building a future-ready manufacturing network that can effectively support emerging channels and high-growth formats," said HUL.

CEO and Managing Director Priya Nair said this investment reflects HUL's strategic focus on scaling our brands and creating categories of the future to meet evolving consumer needs.

"It also underscores our commitment to building a resilient, technology-enabled supply chain that delivers superior value to consumers," she said.

HUL is the Indian subsidiary of the British multinational consumer goods company Unilever. Globally, India is the second-biggest market for Unilever after the US, contributing around 12%-14% of total sales.

source: Upstox 

19/02/26, For Midterm to Long-term holding

 

19/02/26, Market Prediction

 The Indian equity markets are set to enter Thursday's trading session with a wave of renewed optimism after a third consecutive day of gains today, February 18. While IT stocks have faced some AI-driven turbulence, the broader market strength-led by metals, PSU banks, and financials-has set a bullish stage for the upcoming session.

The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 283.29 points, or 0.34 per cent, to settle at 83,734.25 in a volatile trade. During the day, it touched an intraday high of 83,770.05. On the other hand, the 50-share NSE Nifty gained 93.95 points, or 0.37 per cent, to close at 25,819.35.

According to Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst, "On 18th February 2026, the BSE Sensex closed higher at 83,734.25, gaining around 283 points (+0.34%), as Indian equity markets extended their rally for a third consecutive session. The advance was driven by broad-based buying in financials, metals, and PSU banks, which offset continued weakness in IT stocks."

"The Nifty50 also ended in positive territory near 25,819.35, reflecting resilient investor sentiment and sustained participation across key sectors," Tailor added.

Sensex Prediction for Thursday, February 19 by experts

Sensex Prediction for Thursday, February 19 by Hitesh Tailor

Tailor noted that while the "buy-on-dips" strategy remains favoured, investors should stay mindful of specific demand and supply zones.

Technical levels to watch on Thursday

He said, "On the technical front, the index maintained strength above recent support levels and displayed resilience amid volatile trade. The 83,200-83,300 zone acted as a crucial demand area where dip-buying interest emerged, reinforcing underlying support, while the 84,150-84,250 range continues to stand as the immediate resistance band that could cap further rebound attempts due to short-term profit-taking and supply pressure."

• Immediate Support: 83,500 (Intraday) / 83,200-83,300 (Structural)
• Immediate Resistance: 84,000
• Secondary Resistance: 84,150-84,250

On the market bias for Thursday, Tailor stated, "With a decisive upside close supported by broad participation across defensive and value segments, the near-term trend remains cautiously positive, favouring a buy-on-dips approach as long as the defined support range continues to hold intact."

Sensex Prediction for Thursday, February 19 by Vipin Dixena

SEBI-registered analyst, Vipin Dixena, stated, "On the daily chart, SENSEX is stabilizing after the recent correction and trading above its 50-day EMA, confirming further upside momentum."

On the Intraday chart, Dixena said Sensex has continued its recovery and is sustaining above the breakout of the 83,600 resistance level. "SENSEX is holding above the short-term moving averages, indicating short-term bullish momentum. RSI is near 64, suggesting strength," the analyst added.

"The next resistance for SENSEX would be 84,000, and immediate support would be 83,500. Overall intraday structure remains positive with higher highs and higher lows," he concluded.

Sensex gainers and losers on Wednesday, Feb 18

Among the Sensex firms, Tata Steel, ITC, Axis Bank, Reliance Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Hindustan Unilever, State Bank of India, UltraTech Cement, Trent, Sun Pharmaceuticals, and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the major gainers.

On the other hand, Eternal, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, HCL Technologies, Adani Ports, Tata Consultancy Services, IndiGo, Asian Paints, Maruti Suzuki India, PowerGrid and HDFC Bank were the laggards.

source:EconomicTimes

(Disclaimer: The above article is meant for informational purposes only, and should not be considered as any investment advice. We suggests its readers to consult their financial advisors before making any money-related decisions.)

19/02/26, (GOLD) which country is slling and which country is buying

India gold reserves: Gold has emerged as strategic asset in the past few years. largely immune to fluctuations in global markets and geopolitical tensions, prompting major countries to purchase large amounts of gold, though many smaller nations have also sold significant volumes of the precious metal due to various reasons.

Which countries bought most gold?

According to World Gold Council data, 15 countries have added a whopping 2,000 tonnes to their gold reserves since 2020 with China topping the list, adding 357.1 tonnes of gold in the last five years.

Interestingly, Poland emerged as the second-largest buyer of gold after China, purchasing 314.6 tonnes of the precious yellow metal since 2020, followed by Turkey (251.8 tonnes), India (245.3 tonnes), and Brazil (105.1 tonnes), according to the World Gold Council report.

As per latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), India's gold reserves have surged to a record high of 880.3 tonnes, worth $123.476 billion as of February 10, 2026.

Who sold most gold since 2020?

According to the report, Philippines, Kazakhstan, Sri Lanka, Germany, and Mongolia emerged as the largest gold sellers over the past five years, selling 65.2 tonnes, 52.4 tonnes, 19.1 tonnes, 16.3 tonnes, and 15.9 tonnes, respectively.

Tajikistan, Euro Area, Colombia, Finland, Curacao and Saint Martin, Solomon Islands, Suriname, Malta, Ethiopia and Switzerland have also sold significant amounts of gold since 2020, the report said.

Among the gold-selling countries, Philippines, Kazakhstan, and Sri Lanka, have witnessed the largest declines in their gold reserves, and sold their gold due to domestic uncertainties and a failure to maintain economic balance, the World Gold Council report noted.

Which countries have largest gold reserves?

According to latest data, the United States has the largest gold reserves on the planet at 8,133 tonnes, followed by Germany (3,351 tonnes), Italy (2,451.6 tonnes), France (2,437 tonnes) and Russia (2,300 tonnes).

China sits at the 6th spot with 2,200 tonnes of gold, followed by Switzerland is at 7th with 1,040 tonnes, while India has eight highest gold reserves in the world at 880 tonnes. Japan ranks 9th with 846 tonnes and Turkey is at 10th place with 614 tonnes.

Notably, gold prices have surged a whopping 230% since 2020, prompting countries and their central banks to purchase high volumes of the precious metal to shore up against global uncertainties.

source: News24

19/02/26, Arm shares rose more than 1% in premarket trading on Wednesday (February 18) following the disclosure that Nvidia has sold its entire stake in the British semiconductor firm, signaling investor confidence in Arm's ability to grow independently.

The move marks a dramatic reversal for Nvidia, which attempted a $40 billion acquisition of Arm in 2021-the largest semiconductor deal in history-which ultimately collapsed. Analysts suggest Nvidia's exit removes uncertainty around Arm's strategic direction while freeing the graphics chip giant to redeploy capital into AI-focused initiatives.

Financial details of the sale

At the end of Q3 2025, Nvidia held 1.1 million shares of Arm valued at $155.8 million. SEC filings confirm that the company has sold all of these shares. Arm remains majority-owned by Japan's SoftBank.

Nvidia's strategic outlook

While Nvidia has not disclosed the use of proceeds from the sale, the company has been actively investing in AI startups, building out data centers, and exploring acquisitions in the networking space. Analysts expect the freed capital could support these initiatives without diluting shareholders or taking on debt.

AI partnerships boost Nvidia stock

Nvidia's stock climbed 2.3% after Meta Platforms announced a long-term deal to use millions of Nvidia chips and other equipment for its AI data centers. CEO Jensen Huang highlighted Nvidia's dominant position in AI computing, stating, "No one deploys AI at Meta's scale."

Wall Street rises on tech gains

Wall Street ended higher on Wednesday, lifted by strong performances in technology stocks, including Nvidia, Amazon, and other AI-related heavyweights, following earlier concerns about high valuations and revenue growth timelines.

-S&P 500 climbed 0.56% to 6,881.31 points.

-Nasdaq Composite gained 0.78% to 22,753.64 points, after briefly rising as much as 1.4%.

-Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.26% to 49,662.66 points.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Nvidia led the gains, rising 1.6% after announcing a multi-year deal with Meta Platforms to supply millions of AI chips. Meta shares added 0.6%.

Other tech-related stocks benefiting from AI demand included Sandisk, Western Digital, and Seagate Technology, which climbed between 1.7% and 4.4%. Amazon gained 1.8%, while Microsoft rose 0.7%.

source: mint