27/09/26, Key factors to watch this week

Developments in the US-Iran situation, crude oil prices and bond yields are expected to influence equity market sentiment in the holiday-shortened week.

The equity markets in India will remain closed on Friday for Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti, according to the NSE's 2026 trading holiday calendar.

The equity markets in India logged their longest weekly losing streak in six years last week as high oil prices drove up bond yields and inflationary concerns. Before this week, the Nifty 50 had recorded seven or more consecutive weekly losses only four times in the last 25 years -- in 2020, 2008 and twice in 2001. Its longest losing streak was nine weeks in 2001.

10 key factors to watch this week

US-Iran situation: Iran on Sunday insisted that only diplomacy can solve its conflict with the United States and Israel after US President Donald Trump said he rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end fighting, reported Reuters.

"Our conditions are clear, and any move toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz is contingent on these conditions being met," Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi posted on social media. "Only a negotiated solution can get them out of this deadlock."

Any development in the US-Iran situation could have a bearing on crude oil prices, India's import bill and the rupee, and in turn influence market sentiment.

"Globally, developments around US-Iran diplomacy and crude oil prices will remain critical. Any progress on a framework for reopening the Strait of Hormuz could ease energy prices and provide some relief to India's import bill and the rupee, while renewed geopolitical tensions could keep volatility elevated," Ajit Mishra, SVP – Research, Religare Broking, said.

2) Crude oil prices: Oil prices have been a focal point for Indian markets since late February when the US and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran, triggering a war in West Asia.

"Brent crude near USD 105–106 a barrel remains too elevated to provide meaningful macroeconomic relief. Progress in the US-Iran negotiations could help reduce the geopolitical premium in oil prices, while renewed escalation or supply disruptions could intensify inflationary pressures," Hariselvan Radhakrishnan, Founder & CEO of HST Wealth, a Research Analyst firm, said.

3) FII activity: The trend of FPI flows turning negative after positive inflows in July and August has continued. Total equity outflows through exchanges have touched Rs 25,682 crore this month through August 25.

At the same time, FPI investment through the primary market has continued, with total investment at Rs 8,551 crore up to August 25. This trend of selling through the exchanges and investing through the primary market has taken total FPI selling this year through exchanges to Rs 2,95,971 crore, while total investment through the primary market during the period stood at Rs 54,398 crore.

"Given the high US bond yields and better returns from India's IPO market, this trend is likely to continue. Yet another significant trend in FPI investment is that even though they are sellers in large-caps, they have been sustained buyers in mid-and small-caps. FPIs also are chasing the market momentum," added Dr. V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments.

4) Macroeconomic data: On the domestic front, industrial production data for August and the HSBC manufacturing PMI reading will be released during the week.

According to Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, markets will track India's August industrial production and the federal fiscal deficit for cues on domestic momentum and the consolidation path.

5) Bond yields: Equity investors will closely watch bond yields as elevated yields continue to tighten global financial conditions and can reduce the relative attractiveness of emerging-market assets.

"The US 10-year Treasury yield, currently near 5.2 percent, will remain an important constraint on global risk appetite," Radhakrishnan added.

"Global bond yields will also remain important following the Federal Reserve's September policy decision. Further increases in yields and the dollar could weigh on emerging-market capital flows, while a moderation in yields could provide some relief," Ponmudi R, CEO - Enrich Money, an online trading and wealth tech firm, added.

6) Rupee movement: The rupee appreciated 24 paise to close at 95.75 against the US dollar on Friday. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 95.92 against the American currency. During the day, the local unit slipped to an intra-day low of 95.94, but recovered lost ground to close at 95.75, a 24 paise rise from its previous close.

"The rupee will remain an important factor to watch, with persistent oil-related demand for dollars and continued FII outflows potentially keeping the currency under pressure, although RBI intervention has helped contain excessive volatility," Ponmudi R added.

7) US data: A series of economic data releases from the US will also be important for global risk sentiment. Globally, US consumer confidence and JOLTS job openings, and the eurozone September inflation cluster will shape expectations around the global rate cycle.

8) IPO Market: The primary market will continue to stay busy in the coming week, with 20 IPOs opening for subscription and looking to raise a combined Rs 1,292 crore.

The week will be led by four mainboard IPOs -- SRIT India, Vishal Nirmiti, Nityas Gems & Jewellery and Shah Investor's Home -- which together plan to raise Rs 595 crore.

The rest of the action will come from the SME segment, where 16 companies are expected to raise about Rs 697 crore.

9) Technical Outlook: Nifty 50's broader technical structure remains weak, with the index continuing to trade below key moving averages and the broader trend remaining under pressure.

On the upside, 23,200 remains the immediate resistance zone. A sustained move above 23,300 could provide some stability and support a recovery towards the 23,500 region. However, unless the index decisively reclaims this band, recovery attempts could continue to face selling pressure.

On the downside, 23,000 remains the immediate and crucial support level. A decisive break below 23,000 could intensify selling pressure and expose the index to the 22,800 region.

Momentum remains weak, with the RSI having slipped into bearish territory during the recent sell-off and the MACD continuing to remain negative.

Overall, the near-term technical outlook remains cautious to bearish, said Ponmudi R, CEO - Enrich Money, a SEBI-registered online trading and wealth tech firm.

10) Corporate Actions

Report by Paras Bist

Source: Network18 

26/09/26, Sensex Monthly Chart

24/09/26, New Regulatory Framework for Portfolio Managers

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has approved a new regulatory framework for portfolio managers that will allow them to invest client money in IPOs, foreign securities and primary debt issuances, while also creating a route for investing in direct mutual fund plans.

The SEBI Board approved the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Portfolio Managers) Regulations, 2026, which will replace the existing 2020 regulations. The new framework is aimed at developing the portfolio management services (PMS) industry, easing compliance, consolidating regulatory provisions and removing redundant requirements.

Under the new rules, portfolio managers will be permitted to invest in IPOs and primary market issuances in the debt market.

SEBI will also allow discretionary portfolio management services (DPMS) to invest up to 10% of a client's assets under management in investment-grade, non-convertible, unlisted debt securities, subject to client consent.

The framework provides greater flexibility for investments in exchange-traded derivatives, allowing exposure of up to 1.25 times the client's AUM.

Foreign securities

Portfolio managers offering both discretionary and non-discretionary services will be allowed to invest in foreign securities. The permitted instruments will include listed equity and debt, REITs, overseas mutual funds, ETFs, index funds and foreign government debt.

Such investments will remain subject to the Foreign Exchange Management Act and the Reserve Bank of India's Liberalised Remittance Scheme.

PMS route for direct mutual funds

SEBI has also introduced the Portfolio Managers Route for Investing in Mutual Fund Units, or PRIM, allowing portfolio managers to invest client funds in direct plans of mutual funds, including ETFs, index funds and specialised investment funds offered by Indian AMCs.

An existing portfolio manager can offer PRIM through a separate investment approach, with a minimum ticket size of Rs 25 lakh. Entities seeking to operate exclusively under the PRIM framework can also obtain a separate portfolio manager registration.

For PRIM, SEBI has prescribed a minimum ticket size of Rs 25 lakh and a minimum net worth of Rs 2 crore.

The Principal Officer will need to have a graduation degree, CFA or CA qualification, along with two years of securities market experience and a simplified NISM certification.

PRIM will also have a prudential cap of 25% on investments in schemes of affiliated, group or associate AMCs. Fixed management fees will be capped at 1% of client AUM, while a performance-based fee model will also be permitted.

SEBI has also provided for a waiver of exit-load provisions for PRIM.

Portfolio managers operating as mutual fund distributors will have to segregate their MFD and PRIM activities and clients, except in the case of accredited investors.

Independent fund managers

The new regulations will also introduce the concept of Independent Fund Managers (IFMs), who will be able to manage and operate client portfolios in association with a registered portfolio manager.

The registered portfolio manager will retain full responsibility and liability for all activities undertaken by an IFM. IFMs will have to meet the same qualification, experience and certification requirements prescribed for a Principal Officer.

Fees will be paid directly to the registered portfolio manager and orders generated by IFMs will have to flow through the portfolio manager's infrastructure.

A portfolio manager can affiliate with several IFMs, while an IFM can operate under only one portfolio manager at a time.

Clients will have a mandatory exit option if their IFM leaves or is terminated. APMI will maintain and update a central database of all active IFMs.

The new framework also permits eligible fund managers to manage and advise eligible investment funds investing in overseas securities. For eligible investment funds investing in Indian securities, the applicable investment limit will continue to be aligned with the prevailing foreign portfolio investor framework.

Source: Network18 

24/09/26, NSE share price

National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) shares rose as much as 5.21 percent on their trading debut on Thursday, extending gains after listing at a premium to the issue price.

NSEshares started trading at Rs 1,800 per share on the BSE, up 0.84 percent from the issue price of Rs 1,785. The stock later climbed to Rs 1,878, .up 5.21% from issue price 

24/09/26, Share Market Report for Today

 Indian benchmark indices are likely to see a gap-down start on September 24, tracking GIFT Nifty, which was trading lower at around 23,278 in early trade.

Indian equity indices rebounded on September 23, with the Nifty reclaiming the 23,400-mark, led by broad-based buying across sectors, barring IT stocks.

Despite mixed global cues, the market opened higher and extended gains through the session, supported by buying in metal, realty and FMCG stocks. The continued decline in oil prices for a sixth straight session also aided sentiment, while selling pressure in IT stocks capped the upside.

At close, the Sensex was up 299.17 points or 0.40 percent at 74,828.25, and the Nifty was up 117.80 points or 0.50 percent at 23,446.80.

Broader markets snapped a two-day losing streak, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices rising 0.7% and 0.9%, respectively.

Here is how financial markets across the globe fared overnight:

GIFT Nifty (Down)

GIFT Nifty was trading lower at around 23,278 in early trade, signalling a weak opening for the domestic equity markets.

Asian Equities (Mixed)

Asian stocks were trading mixed in the early trade on Thursday.

The Nikkei stock benchmark gained after a three-day holiday as Tokyo's market caught up with a global AI-

led rally. Climbing bond yields and a rise in oil prices weighed on broader risk appetite, however.

US Equities (Slip)

Wall Street ended lower on Wednesday, pulled down by Alphabet and Amazon, as Treasury yields climbed and Iran's president said Tehran would never surrender ​to US pressure.

Oil prices rose almost 4%, and the S&P 500 energy sector index rallied after Iranian President Masoud ‌Pezeshkian's speech at the UN, a day after US President Donald Trump warned he could "annihilate" Iran.

The S&P 500 declined 0.75% to end the session at 7,706.05 points.

The Nasdaq declined 1.13% to 26,936.04 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.68% to 51,511.59 points.

Dollar Index (Up)

The dollar clung to a two-month high on Thursday after a strong manufacturing reading reignited inflation fears and rate-hike bets, while a weak Treasury auction sent yields higher across the curve, providing fresh impetus to the US currency.

US Bond Yield (Up)

Global bonds extended their selloff after robust economic data and weak demand at a debt auction pushed Treasury yields across much of the curve to their highest levels in almost two decades. Bets on further Federal Reserve interest-

rate hikes increased.

Government bonds in Japan, Australia and New Zealand all retreated after yields on the US 10-year surged 15 basis points to 5.11% — the biggest one-day increase since the market turmoil triggered by President Donald Trump's April 2025 tariff announcement.

However, the 2-year Treasuries were trading marginally lower at 4.89.

Asian Currencies (Mixed)

Asian currencies traded mixed against the US dollar, with the Indonesian Rupiah emerging as the top gainer, rising 0.37% from the previous close. The Japanese Yen also strengthened 0.285%, while the South Korean Won declined 0.336%, making it the weakest performer in the region.

The Philippines Peso slipped 0.172%, while the Chinese Renminbi fell 0.171%. The Malaysian Ringgit and Taiwan Dollar declined 0.191% and 0.22%, respectively. The Singapore Dollar and Thai Baht were largely stable, easing 0.023% and 0.021%.

Crude (Falls)

Oil prices edged lower on Thursday, after climbing 4% in the previous session, as Iran said it remained open to diplomacy to end the US-Iran war, though the two countries remain far apart on ways to do so.

Brent crude futures fell 94 cents, or 0.9%, to $102.13 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures eased 59 cents, or 0.7%, to $91.56.

Gold (Up)

Gold held a decline as resurgent energy prices and stronger-than-expected US economic data increased bets the Federal Reserve might again raise interest rates to combat inflation.

Bullion was trading around $4,290 an ounce, after falling 1.7% the day before.

Fund Flow Action

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) snapped their two-day selling streak and turned net buyers, purchasing equities worth ₹1,600 crore on September 23. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) continued their buying support, acquiring equities worth ₹2,341 crore during the session.

Hope you're all set for today's trade. We wish you a profitable day ahead.

Report by Rakesh Patil

Source: Network18