19/10/26, Closing Bell Snaps

 

19/10/26, Axis Bank Monthly Graph

19/10/26, Axis Bank Q2

Axis Bank shares plunged 4 percent on Monday, emerging as the top loser on both the Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty following the private sector lender's mixed second-quarter earnings. While brokerages remained broadly positive on the stock's outlook, concerns over pressure on margins, elevated operating expenses and a rising loan-to-deposit ratio weighed on sentiment.

Axis Bank stock fell to Rs 1,238 in morning trade, extending its year-to-date decline to 3 percent, compared with an 11.5 percent fall in the Nifty 50. The bank's market capitalisation stood at approximately Rs 3.86 lakh crore

 The decline came after Axis Bank reported a 37.6 percent year-on-year increase in net profit to Rs 7,003.3 crore for Q2 FY27, below the CNBC TV18 poll estimate of Rs 7,132 crore. Net interest income (NII), however, rose 11.8 percent to Rs 15,371.4 crore, exceeding the estimate of Rs 14,970 crore.

The bank's net interest margin (NIM) stood at 3.36 percent, although the figure was 3.47 percent excluding the impact of FCNR-B deposits. Asset quality improved, with the gross NPA ratio declining to 1.16 percent from 1.46 percent a year earlier, while the net NPA ratio fell to 0.35 percent from 0.44 percent.

Axis Bank stock ratings, target prices

Jefferies, JPMorgan, Citi and Bernstein maintained positive recommendations on Axis Bank, although their assessments of underlying earnings quality differed.

Jefferies: Buy, target price Rs 1,700

Jefferies maintained its Buy rating on Axis Bank with a target price of Rs 1,700, implying approximately 32 percent upside from Friday's closing price of Rs 1,290. The brokerage said the bank's core performance exceeded its estimates, supported by stronger revenue and lower provisions. It viewed stable sequential core margins positively, although the drag from FCNR-B deposits was slightly greater than anticipated. Jefferies expects improving margins, lower credit costs and a rebalancing of the loan portfolio to support higher return on equity next year.

JPMorgan: Overweight, target raised to Rs 1,620

JPMorgan raised its target price on Axis Bank to Rs 1,620 from Rs 1,590, retaining its Overweight recommendation. The brokerage said the bank's quarterly earnings exceeded its estimates, aided by stronger NII and lower credit costs. It highlighted healthy loan growth, a marginal recovery in core NIM excluding the FCNR-B impact, and improving asset quality. JPMorgan also cited attractive valuations as a key factor supporting its positive outlook.

Citi: Buy, target price Rs 1,620

Citi maintained its Buy rating on Axis Bank with a target price of Rs 1,620. The brokerage said the headline NIM was affected by FCNR-B deposits, while underlying margins remained stable. It highlighted a sequential moderation in slippages and credit costs, alongside resilient asset quality. Citi also noted its credit growth outpaced industry growth, but flagged elevated operating expenses as a drag on pre-provision operating profit.

Bernstein: Outperform, target price Rs 1,600

Bernstein maintained its Outperform rating on Axis Bank with a target price of Rs 1,600, implying approximately 24 percent upside from Friday's close. The brokerage described the Q2 performance as mixed, saying that a 52 percent year-on-year decline in credit costs supported 37 percent growth in earnings per share, even as underlying operating trends remained weak. Bernstein highlighted strong corporate-led loan growth, which pushed the loan-to-deposit ratio to approximately 95 percent. It also flagged margin compression from FCNR-B deposits, weaker net operating income and higher operating expenses as concerns.

Written by Shaleen Agrawal

Source: Network18

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts here are their own and not those of us. We advise readers&traders to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

19/10/26, The Indian rupee opened higher against the US dollar on October 19, with the central bank's dollar sales expected to support the currency and keep it near what traders perceive to be the central bank's soft defence line.

The rupee extended its gains on seventh consecutive day and opened higher by 9 paise at 94.86 per dollar, compared with Thursday's close of 94.95.

According to Finrex, the rupee is expected to open flat this morning (around (94.94) with oil prices slightly down after Trump did not apply tariffs on India, China and 3 other countries for buying Russian oil.

Dollar Index was a tad up at 101.79 this morning, moving with a range of 101.50 to 102. We expect some inflows from the JIO IPO whose anchor investors portion is opening for subscription this morning.

Exporters to sell near to 95.10 and take advantage of the higher forward premiums. Importers to wait for lower levels of 94.50 so that higher forward premiums could be absorbed by the lower spot, it added.

Asian currencies traded mixed against the US dollar, with the Indonesian rupiah recording the biggest decline, falling 0.49 percent. The Philippine peso and Taiwan dollar also weakened by 0.27 percent each, while the South Korean won slipped 0.13 percent.

On the other hand, the Japanese yen strengthened 0.08 percent, followed by the Chinese renminbi, which rose 0.06 percent. The Thai baht and Malaysian ringgit edged higher by 0.06 percent and 0.03 percent, respectively, while the Singapore dollar eased 0.04 percent.

The dollar edged up from near its lowest levels of the month at the start of trading in Asia on Monday as violent protests in France put pressure on the euro.

The euro fell 0.1% at $1.1225 as trading began in Asia. The biggest weighting in the dollar index, the common currency's drop helped steady the greenback, which traded level at 101.83.

Source: Moneycontrol, Network18 

19/10/26, INDEX LEVELS

SENSEX

NIFTY 50

NIFTY BANK 

18/10/26, about Commodities Market

Sticky inflation, uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's policy path, and a sharp pullback in technology stocks shaped global market sentiment this week, while renewed attacks on Gulf shipping routes pushed energy prices to their highest levels in five months.

The US Dollar Index ended the week at 101.77, down 0.4 percent, after briefly touching an 18-month high of 102.9. September CPI data showed headline inflation accelerating to 3.7 percent year-on-year from 3.4 percent, driven by higher energy costs, while core inflation rose 0.3 percent month-on-month against expectations of 0.2 percent. Despite the inflation surprise, the dollar's gains faded as a selloff in AI and semiconductor stocks triggered a rotation into government bonds, easing Treasury yields.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh refrained from offering fresh policy guidance at the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok, helping ease concerns of consecutive rate hikes. Fed officials continued to send mixed signals. John Williams supported one additional rate hike this year, Austan Goolsbee described the inflation data as discouraging, Beth Hammack warned further tightening may be needed if inflation expectations rise, while Michelle Bowman saw no immediate urgency to act.

Combined with softer labour market data, markets are now pricing roughly a 20 percent chance of a rate hike in October and close to a 90 percent probability in December. US equities ended mixed, with the Dow Jones posting gains while the S&P 500 fell nearly 2 percent and the Nasdaq declined 4.5 percent amid broad weakness in technology shares.

Precious metals came under pressure after the stronger-than-expected inflation print. Spot gold fell to a two-month low of $4,073 per ounce and silver dropped to $55.4 per ounce, its weakest level since July. Both metals later recovered as the dollar retreated toward a two-week low and investors increasingly expected the Fed to leave rates unchanged this month. Gold rebounded to $4,198 an ounce and ultimately settled near $4,165 an ounce, while silver closed around $57 an ounce, down roughly 6 percent for the week as markets balanced expectations of a policy pause against the likelihood of a December rate hike

Gold futures remain under pressure, trading below the 20-day EMA and Supertrend, indicating a weak near-term trend. Immediate support is placed at Rs 1,45,600 per 10 gram, and a sustained break below this level could drag prices towards Rs 1,43,350. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs 1,50,000, followed by Rs 1,51,600; a sustained breakout above Rs 1,50,000 could improve the outlook.

Crude oil was the week's strongest performer, ending near five-month highs as geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions outweighed demand concerns. Brent largely traded between $104-107 a barrel, with gains capped after OPEC lowered its 2026 demand growth forecast and the IEA widened its projected demand contraction amid elevated prices and supply constraints.

However, Brent surged to settle at $109.86 a barrel on Friday, up 3.7 percent on the day and marking its highest close since May. The rally was driven by mounting supply risks, including attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, threats to Saudi export infrastructure and Ukrainian strikes on Russia's Ryazan refinery.

Tight diesel markets further supported prices, with inventories remaining critically low ahead of winter. The WTI-Brent spread narrowed from above $12 a barrel, its widest level in 11 years, to around $8 a barrel after a more than 8-million-barrel decline in US crude inventories boosted WTI, which gained nearly 11 percent for the week.

Base metals remained under pressure as inflation concerns and weaker risk appetite weighed on demand. Copper drifted toward $14,300 per tonne despite a mixed supply backdrop. An avalanche at Codelco's El Teniente mine temporarily disrupted operations, although the impacted area accounts for less than 10 percent of the mine's output. Aluminium touched an eight-month low, while zinc fell 3 percent, making it the weakest performer among base metals.

Looking ahead, China's third-quarter GDP and industrial production data will be key catalysts for commodity markets. Strong readings could reinforce confidence in recent stimulus measures and support industrial metals, while weaker figures may deepen concerns over underlying demand.

Attention will also turn to flash PMI releases from the US, Eurozone, Germany and the UK, with investors focusing closely on price and employment components for clues on inflation trends. For precious metals, movements in the dollar and Treasury yields are expected to remain the primary drivers. For copper, a preliminary agreement at Antofagasta's Centinela mine that averted a prolonged strike may lead to a weak start, leaving demand signals from China as the key driver.

For crude oil, developments around Hormuz shipping routes, Saudi energy infrastructure and tanker sanctions will remain critical. Additionally, the White House's decision to delay certain Russia-related sanctions could allow more Russian crude to reach global markets, potentially moderating further upside despite ongoing geopolitical risks.

Report by Kaynat Chainwala,  Network18

YES BANK Q2

Private sector lender Yes Bank reported a 65% year-on-year rise in standalone net profit to Rs 1,080 crore for the second quarter of FY27, driven by higher net interest income and lower provisions. However, the results do not reflect the potential financial impact of the Supreme Court's ruling on the bank's write-down of Additional Tier-1 (AT1) bonds worth Rs 8,415 crore. The bank's pro forma disclosure indicated a potential net loss of Rs 5,217 crore for the quarter if the estimated impact were recognised.

Net profit rose from Rs 654 crore in the year-ago quarter and was up 0.8% sequentially from Rs 1,071 crore in Q1FY27. For the first half of FY27, profit increased 47.8% to Rs 2,151 crore from Rs 1,456 crore a year earlier.

Net interest income (NII) rose 22.7% year-on-year to Rs 2,822 crore from Rs 2,301 crore, while interest income increased 17.1% to Rs 8,640 crore. Interest on advances grew 17.2% to Rs 6,600 crore, while interest expenses rose 14.6% to Rs 5,817 crore.

Operating profit before provisions and contingencies increased 29.4% to Rs 1,678 crore. Provisions and contingencies fell 24.2% year-on-year to Rs 317 crore from Rs 419 crore and were down 19.5% sequentially. Other income rose 14.4% to Rs 1,882 crore.

Deposits and asset quality

Advances grew 23.7% year-on-year to Rs 3.10 lakh crore as of September 30, while deposits rose 19.5% to Rs 3.54 lakh crore.

Gross non-performing assets (NPAs) stood at Rs 3,875 crore, against Rs 4,055 crore a year earlier. The gross NPA ratio improved to 1.2% from 1.6%, while the net NPA ratio fell to 0.2% from 0.3%. The capital adequacy ratio stood at 14.5%, compared with 15% a year earlier.

The Supreme Court on October 15 upheld the Bombay High Court judgment setting aside the March 2020 write-down of the AT1 bonds and dismissed the appeals against it. Yes Bank said it was evaluating the judgment's implications, implementation and available legal remedies. The bank has not recognised the impact in its reported results, and its joint statutory auditors issued a qualified review conclusion on the matter.

The bank's pro forma disclosure showed a net loss of Rs 5,217 crore for Q2FY27 and Rs 4,146 crore for the first half of FY27 if the impact had been recognised. Under this scenario, net worth would have stood at Rs 46,970 crore, borrowings at Rs 86,149 crore and return on assets at minus 4.3% for the quarter. The capital adequacy ratio would have remained at 14.5%.

Source: Network18 

17/10/26, Jio vs Starlink

Elon Musk, on Friday, responded with a “much appreciated” post to Reliance soon after Starlink also issued a conciliatory statement. Both posts came hours after Reliance issued a firm public statement responding to Musk's direct attack on the company and the Indian regulatory system.

Starlink, in a post on X, said it had worked with regulators, industry stakeholders and operators in India for more than five years. The company said it had also established dedicated systems, gateways and other infrastructure within the country to serve Indian users.

“Starlink is ready to connect India with high-speed internet,” the company said.

In its statement on Friday,  Reliance Industries said that the company  said its growth had been supported by an Indian market that welcomes investment and innovation, provided businesses comply with the law.

“As the Government of India has stated, it applies the same process to every applicant, Indian or foreign. Jio's own satellite services await clearances,” Reliance said in a statement.

Reliance said it had never been afraid of competition, describing it as “the truest test of who serves the customer best”. The company also emphasised that its satellite communication services under Jio were awaiting the necessary approvals.

Sunil Mittal, Chairman of Bharti Enterprises, had also commented on Musk's allegations saying Eutelsat OneWeb applied 5 years ago and was still waiting for clearance. "We are already waiting for approvals. I am significantly ahead, we got our approvals five years back ... ," Mittal said at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum on Wednesday.

All three applicants for satcom licenses, including Starlink, are at the same stage of the regulatory approval process and currently waiting clearance.

17/10/26, IDBI Bank Q2 Results

IDBI Bank on Saturday reported a 39.2 percent year-on-year decline in net profit to Rs 2,206 crore for the second quarter of FY27, compared with Rs 3,627 crore in the corresponding period last year. However, the lender's net interest income (NII) jumped nearly 29 percent, while net interest margin (NIM) expanded significantly and asset quality improved.

The sharp decline in reported profit was largely attributable to a high base in the year-ago quarter, which included a one-off gain of Rs 1,699 crore from the sale of a strategic investment in NSDL. Excluding this gain, IDBI Bsnksaid its net profit increased 14 percent year-on-year.

Sequentially, net profit rose around 4 percent from Rs 2,115 crore in the April-June quarter.

Net interest income, the difference between interest earned and interest paid, increased 28.7 percent year-on-year to Rs 4,227 crore from Rs 3,285 crore a year earlier. On a sequential basis, NII grew approximately 21 percent from Rs 3,486 crore.

The bank's net interest margin improved to 4.11 percent from 3.71 percent in the year-ago quarter, an expansion of 40 basis points. NIM also increased 50 basis points sequentially from 3.61 percent in the June quarter.

Operating profit stood at Rs 2,893 crore, rising 33 percent sequentially. Excluding the one-off NSDL gain recorded last year, operating profit grew 59 percent year-on-year.

The bank's cost-to-income ratio declined to 48.17 percent, an improvement of 385 basis points sequentially, while its cost of deposits fell to 4.55 percent from 4.69 percent a year earlier.

IDBI Bank Q2 results: Asset quality improves

IDBI Bank's gross non-performing asset (GNPA) ratio declined to 2.12 percent from 2.30 percent in the preceding quarter and 2.65 percent a year earlier. However, the net NPA ratio edged up marginally to 0.17 percent from 0.16 percent in the June quarter, although it improved from 0.21 percent a year earlier.

The bank's provision coverage ratio, including technical write-offs, stood at 99.24 percent at the end of September.

Deposits rise 17%, advances grow 18%

Total deposits increased 17 percent year-on-year to Rs 3,55,684 crore from Rs 3,03,408 crore, while net advances grew 18 percent to Rs 2,71,533 crore from Rs 2,30,220 crore. On a sequential basis, deposits increased 9 percent, while net advances expanded 5 percent.

Current account and savings account (CASA) deposits rose 12 percent year-on-year to Rs 1,55,877 crore. The CASA ratio stood at 43.82 percent, improving 18 basis points sequentially.

Capital adequacy strengthens

IDBI Bank's capital adequacy ratio (CRAR) improved to 27.10 percent from 25.39 percent a year earlier, while its Tier 1 capital ratio increased to 26.55 percent from 23.79 percent. The bank reported a return on assets (ROA) of 1.83 percent for the September quarter.

IDBI Bank-Fairfax deal

The results follow the Cabinet's approval of a 60.72 percent stake sale to Fairfax Financial Holdings for Rs 52,878 crore, at Rs 81 per share. IDBI Bank shares closed at Rs 84.12 on Friday, after plunging 7.7 percent on Thursday following the announcement. The stock is down 19 percent year-to-date, compared with an 11.5 percent decline in the Nifty 50.

Report by Shaleen Agrawal 

Source: Network18 

17/10/26, ICICI Bank Q2 Results

ICICI Bank on Saturday reported a 20.1 percent year-on-year rise in standalone net profit to Rs 14,843 crore for the second quarter of FY27, beating market expectations. The private sector lender reported strong growth in net interest income (NII) and advances, while asset quality improved.

The net profit exceeded the CNBC TV18 poll estimate of Rs 14,280 crore by 3.9 percent. 'ICICI Bank net interest income increased 17.7 percent year-on-year to Rs 25,339 crore from Rs 21,529 crore, surpassing the poll estimate of Rs 24,811 crore by 2.1 percent.

Net interest margin declines sequentially

The bank's net interest margin (NIM) stood at 4.18 percent in the July-September quarter, compared with 4.36 percent in the preceding quarter and 4.30 percent in the year-ago period. The sequential decline of 18 basis points reflected pressure on margins despite strong growth in interest income. The bank said the benefit from interest on tax refunds was negligible during the fiscal second quarter, compared with eight basis points in the preceding quarter.

Core operating profit increased 21.8 percent year-on-year to Rs 20,805 crore from Rs 17,078 crore. Fee income rose 20.1 percent to Rs 7,795 crore, with fees from retail, rural and business banking customers accounting for approximately 75 percent of the total. Operating expenses increased 8.5 percent year-on-year to Rs 12,811 crore.

Provisions decline; asset quality improves

ICICI Bank reported provisions, excluding tax provisions, of Rs 851 crore for the September quarter, compared with Rs 914 crore a year earlier, representing a decline of approximately 6.9 percent.

The bank continued to maintain contingency provisions of Rs 13,100 crore, alongside an additional standard asset provision of Rs 1,283 crore made in the third quarter of FY26 under RBI directions relating to its agricultural priority sector portfolio.

Asset quality improved during the quarter. The gross non-performing asset (NPA) ratio declined to 1.20 percent as of September 30, from 1.38 percent at the end of June and 1.58 percent a year earlier.

The net NPA ratio improved to 0.30 percent from 0.35 percent sequentially and 0.39 percent a year earlier. Gross NPA additions stood at Rs 4,833 crore, compared with Rs 5,034 crore in the corresponding quarter last year.

Loan book grows 30%; deposits rise 27%

The bank's total advances increased 30 percent year-on-year and 12.3 percent sequentially to Rs 18.32 lakh crore as of September 30. Excluding loans extended by international branches against foreign currency non-resident (FCNR-B) deposits, total loan growth was 24.1 percent year-on-year and 7.3 percent sequentially.

The retail and rural loan portfolio grew 14.8 percent year-on-year, while the business banking portfolio expanded 33.8 percent. The domestic corporate portfolio registered growth of 30.6 percent.

Total period-end deposits increased 27.1 percent year-on-year to Rs 20.50 lakh crore. Excluding FCNR-B deposits, deposit growth stood at 17 percent. Average deposits rose 21.2 percent to Rs 18.88 lakh crore. The average current account and savings account (CASA) ratio stood at 35.8 percent, reflecting the increase in the term deposit base due to FCNR-B deposit inflows.

Capital adequacy remains above regulatory requirements

ICICI Bank's total capital adequacy ratio stood at 16.68 percent as of September 30, while its common equity tier-1 (CET-1) ratio was 16.01 percent. Both remained above the respective minimum regulatory requirements of 11.70 percent and 8.20 percent. During the quarter, the bank also acquired an additional 2 percent stake in ICICI Life Insurance for Rs 1,470 crore.

ICICI Bank share price

ICICI Bank shares closed 0.55 percent higher at Rs 1,397 on Friday, ahead of the earnings announcement. The stock has gained 4.4 percent year-to-date, outperforming the Nifty 50, which has declined 11.5 percent over the same period. The bank's market capitalisation stood at approximately Rs 10.03 lakh crore at Friday's close.

Report by Shaleen Agrawal

Source: Network18 

17/10/26, The country’s net sugar production for the 2026-27 season (October-September) is likely to fall to 28 million tonne (MT) as against 31 MT in the previous season because deficient rainfall in parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka is expected to hit yield, industry sources said.

“This time our gross and net sugar production will be the same around 28 MT, as we would not be diverting any sugar for ethanol production,” Deepak Ballani, Director General, Indian Sugar & Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) told FE. In the previous season, out of gross sugar production of 31 MT, about 3 MT was diverted for ethanol production.

For the 2026-27 ethanol supply year (November-October), the government will soon announce measures to stop mills from diverting sugarcane juice and B-heavy molasses for biofuel manufacturing to ensure adequate sweetener supplies in the market this season. ISMA has projected consumption in 2026-27 season is likely to be between 28.5 MT – 29 MT.

Ballani said the sugarcane crop is impacted in Maharashtra (Marathwada regions) and Karnataka. “But the real impact of the weather is not yet known till harvesting starts. We will do some yield assessment after 10-15 days,” he said.

Due to a spike in prices in August, the government had allowed 1 MT of raw sugar from Brazil to augment supplies. However, because of higher global prices against domestic prices, imports so far have been insignificant according to Ballani. “As crushing of sugarcane has commenced in Maharashtra, prices are expected to stabilize, but eventually next year by June-July we will require the imports to come at least 1 MT of sweetener,” he said.

The opening stock of sugar with mills at the beginning of the 2026-27 season has declined to 3.5-3.6 MT, the lowest in over a decade, due to lower production, industry sources said.

The average retail price of sugar stood at Rs 57.82 a kg on Friday, up 24% year-over-year. However, prices declined by 2% month-on-month, according to the Department of Consumer Affairs’ price monitoring cell.

An official said prices could fall to Rs 52/kg as sugarcane crushing is set to commence across key growing states including Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka, in the next two weeks.

Meanwhile the government on Friday allowed mills to sell sugar produced in October during the current and next month, in addition to the regular monthly quota, to ensure adequate supplies during the festival season.

The ministry stated that for instance, if a mill produces 1,000 tonnes in October, it can sell that quantity in either October or November.”This will be over and above the quantities allocated under regular monthly release quotas for the aforesaid months,” it noted.

The food ministry has allocated sugar for sale in the domestic sugar for sale in the domestic market every fortnight. For the first fortnight of October, the ministry has allocated 1.3 MT for sale, while the second half the mills would sale 1.4 MT of sweetener.

In the last five years, the quantity of sugar diverted towards ethanol production has seen a nearly four-fold increase from 0.8 MT in 2019-20 to around 3 MT in 2025-26 sugar season, according to analysis by Crisil.

LReport by Sandeep Das

Source : Financial Express

17/10/26, Report by Kushi Mangla

Airlines have extended flight cancellations between India and Saudi Arabia amid security concerns in the Middle East. The disruptions follow drone and missile attacks targeting civilian infrastructure in Saudi Arabia by Yemen’s Houthis.

Air India, Akasa Air and IndiGo have announced extensions to their flight suspensions, with different cancellation dates. 

Air India extends cancellations until Oct 20

Air India has extended the cancellation of all flights to and from Riyadh, Dammam and Jeddah until October 20, 2026. The airline announced the decision today, after previously extending the cancellations until October 17.

In a post on X, Air India said it was closely monitoring developments and continuously assessing the situation to ensure the safe resumption of operations.

Akasa Air and Indigo flight update

Akasa Air has extended the suspension of flights to and from Riyadh until October 24 and Jeddah until October 21, 2026.

IndiGo has extended the cancellation of its flights to Saudi Arabia until October 24, 2026. The airline announced the extension on Thursday, October 15.

What refund and rescheduling options are available?

Air India is offering a full refund to passengers affected by its cancellations. 

Akasa Air is offering passengers the option of a full refund, credited to the original source of payment within seven days, or rescheduling their journey without additional charges. Those who booked through travel partners should contact them directly for assistance.

IndiGo has confirmed that it is notifying affected customers and has asked passengers who booked through travel partners to contact them directly. The information provided does not specify its refund timeline or rescheduling terms.

Source: Financial Express

17/10/26, sharp decline in chip stocks causes...

The S&P 500 Index dropped on Friday to cap its biggest weekly loss since June, as a spike in crude prices renewed inflation fears while worries about the viability of the artificial intelligence trade pressured chipmakers.

The stocks benchmark sank 1.1%. A wipeout in the shares of cloud-computing services provider CoreWeave Inc. accelerated the rout in tech stocks, sending the Nasdaq 100 Index down 2.5% on Friday for its worst week since April 2025.

Adding to concerns, Brent oil hit $110 a barrel for the first time since May as prospects for imminent supply relief dwindle, exacerbating worries about price pressures after two separate gauges showed that US inflation rose more than expected. Energy shares were the best S&P group on Friday, soaring 2.47%, with ExxonMobil Holdings Corp. jumping 2.46% while Chevron Corp. rose 2.59%.

“The AI trade has found itself in everything from the stock market to debt markets and inflation figures, all things that have spooked traders this week,” said John Cunnison, chief investment officer at Baker Boyer Bank. “The market is just waking up to whether the AI profit engine is durable.”.

The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index, which includes chip bellwethers like Nvidia Corp., Micron Technology Inc. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc., sank 3.8%, its eighth straight session of losses. That's the gauge's longest losing streak since 2006. The Cboe Volatility Index hovered at 19.99 — a level that signals growing market stress

 “Too many traders piled into the AI trade, with the bullseye now squarely on worries surrounding funding issues,” said Dan Eye, senior portfolio manager at Focus Partners Wealth. “CoreWeave's issues puts even more pressure on Big Tech and AI companies to deliver strong earnings results in the coming weeks.”

CoreWeave shares fell another 12%, for a 25% weekly loss days after its debt tumbled to levels that typically indicate distress earlier this week.

The S&P 500 was about 2% lower for the week, its worst since June. The Nasdaq 100 tumbled 5.5%, declining every day of the week — a development last seen in January.

Still, the S&P 500 is only about 2% below its all-time closing high from earlier this month. Meanwhile, the KBW Bank Index suffered a sixth consecutive weekly decline, the longest streak of losses since the financial crisis.

As traders debate whether valuations have reached unsustainable levels given the current economic and earnings environment, AI profit forecasts loom as a key test.

Some of Nvidia Corp.'s biggest customers report soon, including Meta Platforms Inc. next Wednesday, followed by Microsoft Corp. on Oct. 28 and Amazon.com Inc. on Oct. 29. Tesla Inc., reporting on Wednesday, is expected to see a near-tripling in capital expenditures.

A basket tracking the so-called Magnificent Seven cohort fell 1.9%, led by declines in Meta, which slid 3.7%, while Tesla and Microsoft both fell more than 2% apiece. Apple Inc. rose 0.4% — the largest point contributor to the S&P 500.

With Fed officials set to enter a blackout period this weekend before their policy decision on Oct. 28, money managers are wrestling with what could propel the S&P 500 back to fresh highs after notching a record on Oct. 6.

Investors pared their bets for a rate hike at the central bank's Oct. 27-28 policy gathering after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh — speaking at the International Monetary Fund's annual meeting — did not dispel market expectations that the central bank will keep rates unchanged at the end of this month.

Report: Bloomberg

17/10/26, Brent oil hit $110 a barrel for the first time since May as prospects for imminent supply relief dwindle, prompting traders to ramp up bets on higher prices ahead of the weekend

Brent rose 3.7% as bullish sentiment crystallized in the course of a session punctuated by reports of ongoing conflict in major export centers. Iran-backed Houthi rebels continue to pummel Saudi Arabia with missile and drone strikes, while Russia and Ukraine exchange tit-for-tat attacks on energy infrastructure.

US lawmakers introduced a bill Friday to block US President Donald Trump's deal with Moscow to release several hundred million barrels of diesel. The move reflects widespread opposition to any measures that would allow Russia to pad its war chest.

The continued exclusion of Russian diesel from global markets would force refineries elsewhere to boost oil processing to meet demand. Trump has since reiterated that Moscow will follow through with a diesel release. Persistent hostility around the Black Sea — including a recent strike on Russia's Ryazan oil refinery that led to a suspension of operations, Reuters reported — amplified doubts that the deal would come to pass.

Crude is up more than 70% this year as the wars in the Middle East and Russia disrupt supplies. Physical markets continue to signal tightness as refined products such as diesel have rallied even harder, with European futures for the commodity up more than twofold this year.

Analysts are closely watching developments in the Persian Gulf for any signs the conflict is worsening. Trump declined to rule out using a weapon known as the “Mother of all Bombs” on Iran after the Nov. 3 election, according to an interview with Newsmax. CNN reported earlier this week that the US has developed strike plans that could include using a large-yield bomb known as the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast Bomb.

“The conflict is likely to escalate,” Eurasia Group analysts wrote in a note, raising their odds of intensification to 65% from 35%. “The standoff status quo is no longer sustainable for the US.”

Source: Network18

17/10/26, PostMarket REPORT and Next Week Strategy

The Nifty 50 rallied 0.65 percent on above-average volumes on October 16, extending its gains for a second consecutive session as bulls maintained their grip on the market. The index sustained its position above short-term moving averages and the midline of the Bollinger Bands. Moreover, its 10-day and 20-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) continued to slope upward, indicating a strengthening short-term structure. However, the broader trend remains tilted in favour of the bears, as the index continues to trade below its medium- and long-term moving averages, including the 50-day and 200-day EMAs.

Going forward, the Nifty 50 needs to sustain follow-through buying next week and convincingly reclaim the 23,300–23,350 zone to extend its recovery. This range coincides with the 50-day EMA and the upper end of the bearish gap formed on September 24. A sustained move above this zone could open the door for a further rise towards 23,600–23,700. On the downside, the support base has shifted higher to 22,800–22,900 following a healthy rally of nearly 1,000 points from the October low of 22,180. The 22,550–22,600 zone remains a crucial support area, according to market experts.

After an initial hour of volatility following a positive opening, the Nifty 50 remained above the psychologically important 23,000 mark and closed at 23,146, its highest closing level since September 23. The index gained 149 points, or 0.65 percent.

On the daily charts, the index formed a bullish candle with a long lower shadow, indicating a positive bias and strong buying interest at lower levels. It also moved closer to the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level at 23,173, measured from the decline between 24,774 and 22,180.

Momentum indicators also showed further improvement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbed above the 50 mark to 52.81, accompanied by a positive crossover. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) maintained its bullish crossover and moved closer to the zero line, while the green histogram bars expanded for a third consecutive session.

For the week, the Nifty 50 advanced 2.78 percent, recording its strongest weekly gains since April 2026. The index also broke its six-week sequence of lower highs and lower lows, forming a long bullish candle with a lower wick on the weekly charts, indicating renewed buying interest.

Amol Athawale, Vice President of Technical Research at Kotak Neo, believes the short-term market structure remains positive. However, he said a buy-on-dips and sell-on-rallies strategy would be ideal for traders.

On the downside, 23,000 and the 20-day simple moving average (SMA), near 22,800, are likely to act as key support levels. On the upside, 23,300 and 23,500 could serve as crucial resistance zones, he said. Athawale added that a fall below 22,800 could alter market sentiment, in which case traders may consider exiting their trading long positions.

Weekly options data suggest that the 23,500 strike, which has the highest Call open interest, could pose a major hurdle for the index next week. The 23,200 strike, which has the next-highest Call open interest, is likely to act as an immediate resistance level.

On the downside, the 22,700 strike, which has the highest Put open interest, could provide crucial support. The 22,900–23,000 strikes, which have the next-highest Put open interest, are expected to offer immediate support.

Meanwhile, the India VIX remained unchanged at 14.02 and continued to trade above most of its key moving averages, indicating that caution is warranted among bulls. A sharp decline in the volatility index towards and below the 12 mark could provide greater comfort to bullish traders.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty extended its gains for a second consecutive session but failed to move above the previous day's high of 56,050–56,100, a zone that also coincides with the 50-day EMA. A decisive move above this range is crucial for further upside towards 56,500–56,700, followed by 57,000, which remains a key hurdle for strengthening the bullish bias.

The banking index rose 33.5 points, or 0.06 percent, to close at 55,844. On the daily charts, it formed a small-bodied bearish candle with a minor upper shadow and a long lower shadow, indicating range-bound trading as the index remained within the previous day's range.

The RSI stayed above the 50 mark at 51.91, accompanied by a positive crossover. The MACD also maintained its bullish crossover, with the green histogram bars expanding throughout the week. These indicators point to improving momentum, although the index still needs to clear key resistance levels to confirm further upside.

On the positional front, consolidation continues, and a decisive breakout is required to establish the next directional move, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

According to Shah, the 55,200–55,300 zone will act as immediate support. A breakdown below this range could expose the index to renewed selling pressure, potentially dragging it towards 54,800.

On the upside, 56,300–56,400 remains the immediate resistance zone. A decisive breakout above this range could attract fresh buying interest and propel the Bank Nifty towards 56,700–57,000, he said.

For the week, the Bank Nifty advanced 1.06 percent, extending its gains after a 1.48 percent rally in the previous week. The rise was accompanied by robust volumes. On the weekly charts, the index formed a bullish candle with a minor upper shadow and a noticeable lower shadow, indicating a continuation of the positive trend. It also maintained its higher-high, higher-low structure for another week.

  Report Written by Sunil Shankar Matkar 

Source:Network18