The import duty hike is likely to impact gold and gold-related investment schemes sharply. As per experts, one of the cascading effects could be a spur in the grey market due to the sharp hike on gold duty to 15% from 6%.
Not just that gold prices are expected to surge further, which could impact physical gold demand. If prices continue to soar, gold ETFs are also expected to face certain shocks. Nonetheless, India's fundamental structural demand for gold is resilient in the long term.
Gold Import Duty Hike:
In a surprising move, the government hiked import duty on gold to 15%, which comprises 10% basic custom duty and 5% Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess (AIDC). Gold duty is hiked after more than two years. In Union Budget 2024, the government reduced customs duties to 6% on gold from 15%. That time, macro conditions were comfortable.
"The hike in customs duty on gold and silver from 6% to 15% is a measured policy response to a genuine forex challenge, and it must be read alongside the Prime Minister's appeal earlier this week as part of a single, coordinated effort to conserve India's foreign exchange reserves through an extraordinary external environment," said Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research, Kotak Securities.
Customs Duty Hike Impact On Physical Gold, Gold ETFs, Gold Coins, Jewellery, More
Prithviraj Kothari, Managing Director at RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd., President of India Bullion and Jewellers Association Ltd told GoodReturns, the government raised the effective import duty on gold and silver to 15% from 6%, to curb inbound shipments amid a rising import bill and West Asia crisis pressure. The higher duties are expected to push domestic bullion prices further, weigh on jewellery stocks, and soften consumer demand - particularly as gold prices are already elevated.
"Demand for gold coins and ETFs could also moderate over time if prices continue rising sharply. WGC estimates suggest that every 1% rise in import duty reduces consumer gold demand by approximately 6.4 tonnes - implying a cumulative 9-percentage-point hike could suppress demand by ~57 tonnes annually," said Kothari.
Gold Rates In India Today:
On May 13, right after the import duty was hiked, gold rates in India witnessed one of the strongest rally of 2026. 24 carat gold prices jumped above the roof with 10 grams gold surging by Rs 13,910 to Rs 1,67,890 and 100 grams gold skyrocketing by Rs 1,39,100 in 1 day to Rs 16,78,900.
Also, 22 carat gold of 10 grams gold soared by Rs 12,750 to Rs 1,53,900 and 100 grams gold zoomed by a whopping Rs 1,27,500 to Rs 15,39,00 per 100 grams. Further, 10 grams gold of 18 carat zoomed by Rs 10,430 to Rs 1,25,920 and 100 grams gold here is up by Rs 1,04,300 to Rs 12,59,200.
Gold ETFs Today:
Most of gold ETFs in India also recorded robust single-day surge on May 13. Among the top performers are --- Union Gold ETF, SBI Gold Exchange Traded Scheme, Axis Mutual Fund - Axis Gold Exchange Traded Fund, ICICI Prudential Gold ETF, Quantum Gold Fund - Exchange Traded Fund (ETF), DSP Gold ETF, Nippon India ETF Gold BeES, Tata Gold Exchange Traded Fund, Kotak Gold Exchange Traded Fund, and Groww Gold ETF who have gained by 6% to 8%.
Gold Duty Hike To Push Rise In Gold Smuggling?
Gold buying and selling in the grey market is expected to rise due to the latest import duty hike. In simple words, "grey market" means "dark market," where goods and services are traded through unofficial and unauthorized channels. These are not regulated and are highly risky.
"Higher import duties could also revive gold smuggling, which had eased substantially after the 2024 duty reduction," said Kothari.
Along similar lines, Adib Noorani, an independent market expert said, grey markets are likely to become active, as the incentives to bring in gold illegally are high. smuggling is likely to grow, setting up a parallel economy in the country.
Gold Rates Outlook:
As per Noorani, import duty hike is a tactical fiscal measure to stabilize the trade balance, though it poses temporary volume challenges and margin pressures for the jewellery sector. While the immediate price shock may temper discretionary buying, India's fundamental structural demand for gold as a strategic asset remains a resilient long-term driver.
Explaining in detail, Banerjee said, what we are seeing in domestic prices today is a mechanical re-pricing to a new import parity, not a fundamental rally. The duty is now a fixed cost embedded in the price. From here, gold and silver in India will continue to be driven by what they have always been driven by - the international LBMA spot price, the USD/INR exchange rate, and the domestic premium or discount over import parity. The duty has done its job and become a sunk cost.
Our structural view on gold and silver remains constructive. Banerjee added, "the global de-dollarisation theme, central bank buying, and currency-debasement hedging are all multi-year drivers that operate independently of any domestic tax decision. We expect international gold to move towards $6,000 an ounce over the next 12 to 18 months, with silver positioned as a meaningful beneficiary alongside."
Report by Puja Jaiswar of goodreturns.in






















