30/09/26, Trade Setup

The Nifty 50 is unlikely to easily break out of the bear grip, given the weakening technical structure across parameters and US Treasury yields hovering near two-decade highs. The index fell a third of a percent on September 29, the monthly F&O expiry session, despite a sharp recovery from the day's low. It has declined 5.67 percent in September so far. According to experts, Tuesday's low of 22,570 is expected to be a crucial level. A break below this level could trigger further downside towards the 200-week EMA at 22,380 and then the April low of 22,182. On the other hand, holding above 22,570 could drive the index towards the 22,800–23,000 zone. Experts continue to advise a sell-on-rallies strategy.

Here are 15 data points we have collated to help you spot profitable trades:

1) Key Levels For The Nifty 50 (22,716)

Resistance based on pivot points: 22,750, 22,793, and 22,863

Support based on pivot points: 22,610, 22,566, and 22,496

Special Formation: The Nifty 50 formed a small-bodied bearish candle with a long lower wick, resembling a hammer-like candlestick pattern, during the downtrend on the daily chart, indicating buying interest at lower levels. While this is generally considered a potential trend-reversal pattern, it requires strong follow-through buying in the coming sessions for confirmation. The index continues to trade below all key moving averages, which are sloping downward, while the RSI declined to 26.71 with a negative crossover. The MACD remains below the signal line, with the red histogram bar expanding for another session. All these indicators point to continued weakness in the underlying momentum.

2) Key Levels For The Bank Nifty (54,260)

Resistance based on pivot points: 54,387, 54,533, and 54,770

Support based on pivot points: 53,914, 53,767, and 53,531

Resistance based on Fibonacci retracement: 54,509, 55,897

Support based on Fibonacci retracement: 53,300, 51,830

Special Formation: The Bank Nifty formed a thin-bodied candle with a long lower wick, indicating buying interest at lower levels. The formation resembled a doji-like candlestick pattern on the daily chart during the downtrend. Such a formation can signal a potential trend reversal but requires confirmation in the following sessions. The index fell 0.39 percent despite a sharp recovery from the day's low. It remains below all key moving averages, with its short- and medium-term moving averages trending downward. The RSI declined to 29.04, while the MACD extended its downtrend below the signal line, with the red histogram bar expanding for the fourth consecutive session. All these indicators signal continued pressure.

3) Nifty Call Options Data

According to the weekly options data, the maximum Call open interest was seen at the 23,000 strike (with 67.01 lakh contracts). This level can act as a key resistance level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 23,100 strike (43.49 lakh contracts) and 22,800 strike (38.51 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 23,000 strike, which saw an addition of 32.49 lakh contracts, followed by the 22,700 and 22,800 strikes, which added 32.46 lakh and 23.71 lakh contracts, respectively. There was hardly any Call unwinding seen in the 22,200-23,150 strike band.

4) Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the 22,700 strike holds the maximum Put open interest (with 46.38 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 22,600 strike (45.66 lakh contracts) and the 22,500 strike (40.6 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 22,700 strike, which saw an addition of 32.99 lakh contracts, followed by the 22,600 and 22,500 strikes, which added 28.76 lakh and 15.95 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 23,100 strike, which shed 2.35 lakh contracts, followed by the 22,900 and 23,000 strikes, which shed 1.17 lakh and 13,585 contracts, respectively.

5) Bank Nifty Call Options Data

According to the monthly options data, the maximum Call open interest was seen at the 55,000 strike, with 6.6 lakh contracts. This can act as a key resistance level for the index in the short term. It was followed by the 55,500 strike (5.36 lakh contracts) and the 54,500 strike (2.51 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 55,000 strike (with the addition of 2.83 lakh contracts), followed by the 55,500 strike (2.04 lakh contracts) and 54,500 strike (1.48 lakh contracts). There was hardly any Call unwinding seen in the 53,000-55,750 strike band.

6) Bank Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the 55,000 strike holds the maximum Put open interest (with 6.94 lakh contracts), which can act as a key level for the index in the short term. This was followed by the 54,000 strike (4.88 lakh contracts) and the 53,000 strike (4.3 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 55,000 strike (which added 1.83 lakh contracts), followed by the 54,500 strike (1 lakh contracts) and 54,000 strike (86,520 contracts). The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 53,000 strike, which shed 9,180 contracts, followed by the 54,900 and 55,800 strikes which shed 3,210 and 2,790 contracts, respectively.

Report by Sunil Sankar Matkar

Source: Network18 

 The Nifty 50 is unlikely to easily break out of the bear grip, given the weakening technical structure across parameters and US Treasury yields hovering near two-decade highs. The index fell a third of a percent on September 29, the monthly F&O expiry session, despite a sharp recovery from the day's low. It has declined 5.67 percent in September so far. According to experts, Tuesday's low of 22,570 is expected to be a crucial level. A break below this level could trigger further downside towards the 200-week EMA at 22,380 and then the April low of 22,182. On the other hand, holding above 22,570 could drive the index towards the 22,800–23,000 zone. Experts continue to advise a sell-on-rallies strategy.

Here are 15 data points we have collated to help you spot profitable trades:

1) Key Levels For The Nifty 50 (22,716)

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Resistance based on pivot points: 22,750, 22,793, and 22,863

Support based on pivot points: 22,610, 22,566, and 22,496

Special Formation: The Nifty 50 formed a small-bodied bearish candle with a long lower wick, resembling a hammer-like candlestick pattern, during the downtrend on the daily chart, indicating buying interest at lower levels. While this is generally considered a potential trend-reversal pattern, it requires strong follow-through buying in the coming sessions for confirmation. The index continues to trade below all key moving averages, which are sloping downward, while the RSI declined to 26.71 with a negative crossover. The MACD remains below the signal line, with the red histogram bar expanding for another session. All these indicators point to continued weakness in the underlying momentum.

2) Key Levels For The Bank Nifty (54,260)

Resistance based on pivot points: 54,387, 54,533, and 54,770

Support based on pivot points: 53,914, 53,767, and 53,531

Resistance based on Fibonacci retracement: 54,509, 55,897

Support based on Fibonacci retracement: 53,300, 51,830

Special Formation: The Bank Nifty formed a thin-bodied candle with a long lower wick, indicating buying interest at lower levels. The formation resembled a doji-like candlestick pattern on the daily chart during the downtrend. Such a formation can signal a potential trend reversal but requires confirmation in the following sessions. The index fell 0.39 percent despite a sharp recovery from the day's low. It remains below all key moving averages, with its short- and medium-term moving averages trending downward. The RSI declined to 29.04, while the MACD extended its downtrend below the signal line, with the red histogram bar expanding for the fourth consecutive session. All these indicators signal continued pressure.

3) Nifty Call Options Data

According to the weekly options data, the maximum Call open interest was seen at the 23,000 strike (with 67.01 lakh contracts). This level can act as a key resistance level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 23,100 strike (43.49 lakh contracts) and 22,800 strike (38.51 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 23,000 strike, which saw an addition of 32.49 lakh contracts, followed by the 22,700 and 22,800 strikes, which added 32.46 lakh and 23.71 lakh contracts, respectively. There was hardly any Call unwinding seen in the 22,200-23,150 strike band.

4) Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the 22,700 strike holds the maximum Put open interest (with 46.38 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 22,600 strike (45.66 lakh contracts) and the 22,500 strike (40.6 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 22,700 strike, which saw an addition of 32.99 lakh contracts, followed by the 22,600 and 22,500 strikes, which added 28.76 lakh and 15.95 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 23,100 strike, which shed 2.35 lakh contracts, followed by the 22,900 and 23,000 strikes, which shed 1.17 lakh and 13,585 contracts, respectively.

5) Bank Nifty Call Options Data

According to the monthly options data, the maximum Call open interest was seen at the 55,000 strike, with 6.6 lakh contracts. This can act as a key resistance level for the index in the short term. It was followed by the 55,500 strike (5.36 lakh contracts) and the 54,500 strike (2.51 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 55,000 strike (with the addition of 2.83 lakh contracts), followed by the 55,500 strike (2.04 lakh contracts) and 54,500 strike (1.48 lakh contracts). There was hardly any Call unwinding seen in the 53,000-55,750 strike band.

6) Bank Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the 55,000 strike holds the maximum Put open interest (with 6.94 lakh contracts), which can act as a key level for the index in the short term. This was followed by the 54,000 strike (4.88 lakh contracts) and the 53,000 strike (4.3 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 55,000 strike (which added 1.83 lakh contracts), followed by the 54,500 strike (1 lakh contracts) and 54,000 strike (86,520 contracts). The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 53,000 strike, which shed 9,180 contracts, followed by the 54,900 and 55,800 strikes which shed 3,210 and 2,790 contracts, respectively.

30/09/26, Index Levels

30/09/26, Global Cues to Consider

Indian benchmark indices may start on a positive note on September 30, tracking GIFT Nifty, which was trading around 22,799 in early trade.

In a volatile session, Indian equity markets ended lower for the second consecutive day on September 29, with the Nifty closing around 22,700 amid F&O expiry.

The market opened on a weak note and hit an intraday low of 22,569.65. Despite a mid-session recovery, uncertainty over prospects of an Iran war peace deal, persistent FII selling, a weakening rupee, rising crude oil prices and elevated US Treasury yields continued to weigh on sentiment.

At close, the Sensex was down 242.65 points or 0.33 percent at 72,529.07, and the Nifty was down 64.05 points or 0.28 percent at 22,716.20.

Broader markets underperformed the main indices, with the Nifty midcap index declining 0.6 percent and the smallcap index falling 0.8 percent.

Here is how financial markets across the globe fared overnight:

GIFT Nifty (Up)

GIFT Nifty was trading higher at around 22,799 in early trade, indicating a positive opening for the domestic equity markets.

Asian Markets (Gain)

Asian stocks gained for the first time in three sessions as easing oil-market concerns helped stem a bruising bond selloff ahead of a crucial US inflation reading.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.4%, led by technology companies after a key gauge of US semiconductor shares rose. US equity-index futures also edged up.

US Equities (Down)

US stocks ended the session slightly lower on Tuesday, as government bond yields continued their ascent ahead of ​inflation and labor market data, while investors assessed comments from Federal Reserve officials for the path of interest rates.

Longer-dated US Treasury yields rose, with the 30-year bond hitting ‌5.6206%, its highest since June 2002. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond climbed to 5.293% — its highest level since June 2007.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 131.59 points, or 0.26%, to ‌51,349.92; the ⁠S&P 500 lost 12.85 points, or 0.17%, to 7,670.84 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 22.84 points, or 0.08%, to 26,797.54.

Dollar Index (Up)

The dollar steadied on Wednesday, wrapping up its best month since June as the Fed's renewed focus on taming inflation pushed rate expectations and US bond yields higher.

Written by Rakesh Patil

Source: MoneyControl