..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 24/12/24, BIZnews/market hours

Tuesday, December 24, 2024

24/12/24, BIZnews/market hours

Benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex trimmed gains in afternoon trade on December 23 yet managed to close the day in firm green, helped by a rebound in heavyweights HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, and ICICI Bank, finding some respite from last week's selling pressure that saw key indices plunge 5 percent to their worst week in over two years.

At close, the Sensex was up 498.58 points or 0.64 percent at 78,540.17, and the Nifty was up 165.95 points or 0.70 percent at 23,753.45. About 1565 shares advanced, 2348 shares declined, and 134 shares unchanged.

"Today's gains might appear to be a relief rally, but the markets quickly lost early positivity as sentiment remains bearish," said Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President at Religare Broking. "Occasionally, oversold heavyweights like HDFC Bank and Reliance draw buying interest, as we saw today. Their substantial weight in the indices often lifts other major stocks, but the real challenge lies in sustaining these gains."

Among sectoral indices, Nifty Auto buckled under selling pressure, becoming the only sector to trade in the red. Nifty IT, which had gained 1 percent in the morning, pared its gains to end at the flatline. Nifty Bank, Metal, and Realty also trimmed their advances, trading up in the range 0.8-1.5 percent. Banking giants HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI, and Axis Bank supported the sector, while the metal pack saw gains of 1-2 percent in stocks like JSW Steel, Tata Steel, Coal India, and Vedanta. The FMCG index, which has fallen 16 percent in the past three months, gained momentum to end 1 percent higher.

The mid and small-cap indices showcased a mixed trend. While mid-cap was up just 0.33 percent, smallcap index fell 0.2 percent. Over the past three months, both indices have shown resilience, slipping just 5 percent each, compared to the Nifty's sharper 9 percent decline during the same period. "Large caps offer valuation comfort, with around 28 out of 50 Nifty stocks still trading below their long-term averages. This suggests limited downside potential, supported by favourable technical indicators," Mishra said. "While small and mid-caps have performed exceptionally well and may continue to outperform selectively, sustaining this trend will largely depend on earnings support," he added.

International Gemological Institute shares closed 2 percent higher from a day's high of 9 percent. This comes after listing at a 22 percent premium in the previous trading session on December 20. The company's market valuation stood at Rs 21,229.85 crore on the BSE. In traded volume terms, 3.27 lakh shares of the firm were traded on the BSE and 61.84 lakh shares on the NSE.

India Cements share price surged nearly 8 percent in December 23 trade after the Competition Commission of India (CCI) cleared over Rs 7,000-crore deal. The CCI cleared the deal on December 20, wherein billionaire Kumar Mangalam Birla-promoted UltraTech Cement will acquire a majority stake in the company.

HCC stocks slipped over 6 percent after the construction player announced it divested its stake in Steiner AG. "In line with HCC's strategy to focus on its core EPC operations, HCC's stake in Steiner AG (SAG) (held via its wholly owned subsidiaries) has been sold to Uniresolv SA, an affiliate of m3 Immobilier Holding SA (m3), a prominent player in Geneva's real estate and finance sectors," said the company in a filing with the exchanges.

"With the threat of low volumes looming for the last week of the year, Nifty is expected to attempt a pullback above 200-day SMA. If relief rallies gain strength, expect 24165, but not much beyond," Anand James, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services. "Alternatively, the inability to float above 23700 after early upside attempts, could be seen as a weak signal, but we see low prospects of yet another panic-down move. The 21 Nov low 23265 is likely to stay intact for the week," he added.

JSW Steel, Trent, ITC, Hindalco and IndusInd Bank were the top gainers on the Nifty. Laggards included Hero MotoCorp, Maruti Suzuki, Nestle India, Bajaj Finserv and HCL Tech.

Source: money control

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Tuesday, December 24, 2024

24/12/24, BIZnews/market hours

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