..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 03/02/25,The upcoming week's market sentiment will be shaped by a mix of key domestic and global events. Monday may see some more market reaction to the fingerprint of the Union Budget 2025. With the earnings season underway and release of key economic data, especially the RBI monetary policy, the week is set to be an action-packed one.

Monday, February 3, 2025

03/02/25,The upcoming week's market sentiment will be shaped by a mix of key domestic and global events. Monday may see some more market reaction to the fingerprint of the Union Budget 2025. With the earnings season underway and release of key economic data, especially the RBI monetary policy, the week is set to be an action-packed one.

The RBI Monetary Policy Committee will meet to decide the interest rate, cash reserve ratio and the reverse repo rate. Morevoer, this is set to be the first policy by the under the new RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra after the Union Budget presentation by Finance Minister Nirmala Sithraman on Saturday.

After an active session of listing and maiden issues closing in the previous week, activities in the primary market will be just as active in the upcoming five days with five new issues opening and two listings.

On the global front, all eyes will be on the fallout of Donald Trump's tariff decisions on Mexico, Canada and China. The US' Department of Labour will also release the Initial Jobless Claims data.

In domestic markets, shares of Nestle Ltd., Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., GAIL (India) Ltd. and Power Grid Corporation Of India Ltd. will turn ex-date for the issue of interim dividends.

A quick recap of the week first. The Indian equity benchmark indices closed higher four days in a row, but extended its monthly losing streak.

The NSE Nifty 50 ended 260.05 points, or 1.12% up at 23,509.55, and the 30-stock BSE Sensex ended 740.76 points, or 0.97% higher at 77,500.57.

The NSE Nifty Bank also closed higher at 49,587.20, up 0.56%. The stock market will remain open on Feb. 1, on account of Budget 2025 that is set to take place.

"All the sectors ended in green with Energy and FMCG being the major outperformers. Mid and Smallcap space advanced by 1.89% and 2.11% and outshined the Frontline Index," said Aditya Gaggar, director of Progressive Shares.

Markets are set to react to the programmes and plans enumerated by the Union Budget 2025 that was announced on Feb. 1 by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.

Friday will be instrumental in determining domestic cues of the domestic economy and markets. The Reserve Bank of India will hold the year's first Monetary Policy Committee meeting between Feb. 5 and 7.

The RBI will also be setting the Cash Reserve Ratio and the Reverse Repo Rate, besides benchmark interest rate.

👉Monday will see the release of 'Consumer Price Index' (Year-On-Year) data for the Eurozone . This measures the the change in the prices of goods and services contained in a basket of consumer items. On the same say, S&P Global will also be releasing Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index data for the month of January. A reading above fifty suggests the manufacturing sector is expanding, while a reading below fifty suggests the manufacturing sector is in contraction. The US' Institute for Supply Management will also release ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing prices

On Tuesday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release data on JOLTS Job Openingsfor the month of December.The data helps measure job vacancies.

Wednesday will see the release of US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change datawhich a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment. The services PMI data will also be released on that day, along with ISM non manufacturing employment and PMI data.

The US Energy Information Administration will also release crude oil inventory data on Wednesday.

On Thursday, the UK's Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision. The US' Department of Labour will also release Initial Jobless Claims data.

Friday will witness the US releasing average hourly earnings (month-on-month) for January, non farm payroll data and unemployment rate data for January👈

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Monday, February 3, 2025

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03/02/25, Nifty 50 & NiftyBank Levels

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