..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 20/02/25, Domestic equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty 50 settled marginally lower on Wednesday, dragged by blue-chip IT stocks.

Thursday, February 20, 2025

20/02/25, Domestic equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty 50 settled marginally lower on Wednesday, dragged by blue-chip IT stocks.

Bulls showed healthy strength, taking the benchmark Nifty 50 beyond 23,000, but failed to counter the bear's attack, which wiped out all intraday gains. As a result, the index closed with a marginal loss amid a rangebound session on February 19. The index continued to take support at 22,800 and formed a higher highs-higher lows formation on the daily charts, although the overall sentiment remains bearish. According to experts, the index may attempt to climb above 23,000 again in the upcoming sessions. Above that, 23,200-23,500 (20-day and 50-day EMA) are likely to be key hurdles. However, below 23,000, consolidation may continue, with the key support zone being 22,800-22,700.

The 30-share BSE benchmark Sensex dipped 28.21 points to settle at 75,939.18. Intraday, the index hit a high of 76,338.58 and a low of 75,581.38, gyrating 757.2 points. The Nifty dropped 12.40 points, or 0.05 per cent, to 22,932.90.

Gains in heavyweight financials countered losses in pharma and IT stocks on concerns that US President Donald Trump would impose more tariffs on US imports. Trump said he intends to levy auto tariffs "in the neighbourhood of 25 per cent" and similar duties on semiconductors and pharmaceutical imports.

👉Bulk deal on Feb 19: Goldman Sachs buys BSE shares for ₹401 crore via open market transaction👈

The development resulted in Indian pharma stocks falling 0.7 per cent as the US accounts for nearly 31 per cent of total domestic pharma exports. IT stocks, which also get a significant chunk of their revenue from the US, lost 1.3 per cent on the day. Renewed concerns over Donald Trump's tariff threats triggered weakness in pharma, while IT stocks gave up their previous session's gains.

Stocks to buy today

Vaishali Parekh, Vice President of Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher, said, "Nifty 50 once again recovered strongly from the 22,800 zone and touched the 23,000 level, failing to breach above the zone and closed on a flat note. The bias and sentiment slightly eased out. Active participation was witnessed from the broader markets."

For Bank Nifty, the Prabhudas Lilladher stock market expert said, "After a long wait, Bank Nifty witnessed significant gains with a positive bullish candle formation on the daily chart to turn the daily trend up after seven sessions, improving the bias to some extent. Anticipating a further rise in the coming sessions."

Vaishali Parekh recommended three intraday stocks for today: IREDA, Bharat Electronic Ltd, and Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd.

Stock market today

For today's outlook on the Nifty 50, Parekh said, "A decisive move past the 23,350 zone shall confirm a positive breakout above the descending channel pattern on the daily chart. This shall establish conviction for a further rise in the coming days."

On Bank Nifty, she said, "The index would need a decisive close above the 50EMA level of 50,000 to establish conviction and expect a fresh upward move, with targets of 51,700 and 52,500 levels visible in the coming days."

The daily support is seen at 22,800 levels, while resistance is at 23,200 levels. Bank Nifty would have a daily range of 49,200-50,000 levels.

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Buy or sell stocks by Vaishali Parekh

1) IREDA: Buy IREDA at ₹170 with a target price of ₹185 and a stop loss of ₹162.

2) BEL: Buy BEL at ₹253 with a target price of ₹265 and a stop loss of ₹248.

3) MRPL: Buy MRPL at ₹114 with a target price of ₹128 and a stop loss of ₹109.

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Thursday, February 20, 2025

20/02/25, Domestic equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty 50 settled marginally lower on Wednesday, dragged by blue-chip IT stocks.

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26/08/25, NIFTY LEVELS

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