Sunil Shankar Matkar Strategy:
The market saw a severe gap-down opening on April 7, tracking the crash in global peers, and closed 3 percent lower, though there was a 2 percent recovery from the day's low. The nervousness is unlikely to dissipate easily, considering the weakening technical structure and the global environment post-tariffs. However, there was healthy buying interest from the swing low (21,743). According to experts, 22,000 is likely to be immediate support, followed by 21,700 as crucial support (which can be considered a new lower bottom for the time being). In the event of a bounce back, 22,350-22,400 is likely to act as a hurdle.
Levels for Nifty50:(cmp 22161.60)
Resistance based on pivot points: 22,248, 22,368, and 22,563
Support based on pivot points: 21,858, 21,738, and 21,543
The Nifty 50 formed a long bullish candlestick pattern on the daily charts, indicating strong buying interest from its swing low, though the closing was disappointing. With Monday's fall, the index traded at the lower end of the Bollinger Bands with above-average volumes, while the momentum indicators RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) showed negative crossovers.
Levels For The Nifty Bank (cmp49,860)
Resistance based on pivot points: 50,299, 50,599, and 51,084
Support based on pivot points: 49,330, 49,030, and 48,545
Resistance based on Fibonacci retracement: 50,267, 50,610
Support based on Fibonacci retracement: 49,368, 48,636
The NiftyBank also saw a similar trend, witnessing a gap-down opening and closing 3.2 percent down, though it showed a 1.4 percent recovery from the day's low, which resulted in the formation of a bullish candlestick pattern with a long upper shadow on the daily charts. This chart pattern indicated buying interest at lower levels. The banking index dropped below all key moving averages (10, 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs), as well as the midline of the Bollinger Bands, while the RSI gave a negative crossover and the MACD is on the verge of a negative crossover.
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Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities
The Nifty50 opened with a gap down and made a fresh intraday low of 21,744, breaking the previous swing low of 21,964. However, it closed above 21,964 on a closing basis at 22,161, showing some bounce-back from the lows, and outperforming global markets relatively during this recent fall. On an overall basis, the entire previous rise has been sold into, indicating that the previous lows were not a bottom. The huge gap-down indicates that the overall momentum is strongly down.
There was Put unwinding at almost all strikes, whereas Call additions were seen from the 22,000 strike to the 22,700 strikes, with the highest open interest at the 23,000 level. The PCR (Put Call Ratio) now stands at 0.58, which is near oversold but not excessively so. The maximum pain is at 22,500, and this will act as resistance. Hence, the short-term range is 22,000–22,500, whereas the medium-term range is 22,800–21,600, with a higher probability of testing lower levels unless 23,000 is taken out on the upside.
The India VIX has jumped to 22.79 on a closing basis (up 65.70 percent), reaching a peak last seen in June 2024, after 10 months. The India VIX could climb to 25–26, and then 30, levels that historically act as hurdles for the Nifty. On two occasions in the past when it surpassed these levels (2008 and 2020), it led to a major bear market. Hence, the India VIX needs to be closely watched. Based on these observations, the overall trend remains bearish in the short to medium term unless 23,000 levels are taken off on the upside.
Key Resistance: 22,500, 22,800
Key Support: 21,800, 21,600
Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures on rises near 22,500, with a stop-loss at 22,850, targeting 21,800/21,600.
Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities
The NiftyBank is still trading above its previous lows of 47,700, clearly showing outperformance in the near term. On an overall basis, the Bank Nifty had outperformed the Nifty 50 earlier as well, and this outperformance is likely to continue going ahead. This week, the RBI's monetary policy will be in focus. So far, the RBI has managed to infuse liquidity in the system through OMOs (open market operations), and if there is a further rate cut, it will confirm the RBI's positive stance on the economy, which is a positive signal for equity markets.
There was Put unwinding at all strikes in Bank Nifty, and Call additions were seen at almost all strikes, causing the PCR to fall to 0.81, which is bearish but not oversold. The highest Put open interest is at the 50,000 strike, and the futures are trading well above that. On the flip side, the highest Call open interest is at the 52,000 strike. Hence, the immediate short-term range is 50,000–52,000, and below 50,000, the next support is at 49,000. There is a minor hurdle in the 50,900–51,000 range, and the maximum pain is at 50,900. Therefore, the range for this week is 51,000–50,000, and below 50,000, it could fall to 49,000 levels. Based on the above observations, the short-term range is sideways, and the sector is likely to outperform in the near term.
Key Resistance: 51,000, 51,500
Key Support: 49,500, 49,000
Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips near 49,500, with a stop-loss below 49,000, targeting 50,500/51,000.
Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi
The Bank Nifty index experienced a steep decline of over 2,000 points on Monday but managed to hold above the critical support level of 49,000. This support aligns with the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level of the prior upward move, which explains the recovery seen in the second half of the session. Further weakness is likely only if the index breaks below 49,000; otherwise, we anticipate a recovery toward the 50,500–51,500 range, which corresponds to a gap area.
Key Resistance: 50,000, 50,500
Key Support: 49,000
Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures near 49,700, with a stop-loss at 49,200, targeting 50,700.
Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi
The decline in the Nifty 50 index on Monday was sharp, but as of now, it has managed to hold above the key support level of 21,800. This level marks the confluence of a falling channel and a rising channel. Moving forward, only a decisive close below 21,800 would confirm a major breakdown, potentially triggering widespread panic in the markets. On the upside, immediate resistance lies in the 22,300–22,800 range, which corresponds to a gap area.
Key Resistance: 22,300, 22,800
Key Support: 22,000, 21,800
Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures near 22,100, with a stop-loss at 21,850, targeting 22,600.
source: Network18
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