..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 30/04/25, Stock Market Today: The Benchmark Nifty-50 index, on a cautious note, ended almost flat (up 0.03%) at 24,335.95 on Tuesday. The Bank Nifty at 55,391.29 also ended marginally lower though metals, Pharma were key losers while IT index gained the most.

Wednesday, April 30, 2025

30/04/25, Stock Market Today: The Benchmark Nifty-50 index, on a cautious note, ended almost flat (up 0.03%) at 24,335.95 on Tuesday. The Bank Nifty at 55,391.29 also ended marginally lower though metals, Pharma were key losers while IT index gained the most.

The Nifty 50 witnessed consolidation and rangebound trading on April 29, closing on a flat note after recording a 1.2 percent rally in the previous session. The index maintained a higher highs–higher lows formation, and all moving averages trended upward alongside an expansion in Bollinger Bands, despite the elevated VIX. However, the attempt to break out failed due to profit booking. According to experts, as long as the index defends the 24,300 level on a closing basis, it is likely to move upward toward 24,550, followed by 24,860, which remains a crucial hurdle. On the downside, key support is placed in the 24,100–24,000 zone.

Trade Setup for Wednesday

Th consolidation may continue in the short term, especially as the Nifty 50 index has yet to give a decisive breakout above 24,550, where the 61.80% retracement level lies. On the lower end, support is placed at 24,250; a breach below this level could trigger increased selling pressure in the market, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

The index is expected to consolidate between 54,450 and 56,000 in the near term as per Asit C Mehta.

Levels For Nifty50:

Resistance based on pivot points: 24,425, 24,465, and 24,528

Support based on pivot points: 24,298, 24,258, and 24,195

The Nifty 50 formed a small red candle with an upper shadow on the daily charts, indicating selling pressure at higher levels and a failed upside breakout attempt near the 24,350–24,400 resistance zone. Despite this, the overall trend remains strong, with the index trading well above all key moving averages, all of which are trending northward. The Bollinger Bands continued to expand, suggesting heightened volatility. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained above 60, closing at 65.05, and the MACD sustained a positive crossover, remaining well above the zero line, further reinforcing bullish momentum.

Levels For Nifty Bank(55,391)

Resistance based on pivot points: 55,803, 55,967, and 56,233

Support based on pivot points: 55,271, 55,107, and 54,842

Resistance based on Fibonacci retracement: 56,307, 58,648

Support based on Fibonacci retracement: 54,117, 52,891

The Nifty Bank attempted to move toward its record high but failed to sustain those gains, forming a small bearish candlestick pattern with an upper shadow on the daily timeframe. This signaled selling pressure in the higher zone. The index closed down by 42 points. Despite the bearish candlestick, technical indicators remained strong. All exponential moving averages (EMAs) continued to trend upward, and the upper line of the Bollinger Bands expanded further, indicating a potential target near 57,000. The RSI stood at 70, and the MACD continued to move upward, reinforcing bullish undercurrents.

Global Markets and Q4 Results

The domestic market exhibited largely range-bound oscillation, as caution prevailed amid geopolitical concerns over border tensions. The sustained inflows from FIIs provided support to market sentiment and restricted further pessimism. Meanwhile, mixed Q4 results have raised the risk of downward revisions to FY26 projections. In combination with apprehensions surrounding potential retaliatory actions, these developments may lead to some consolidation in the near term, said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited.

Sstocks to buy today

Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, has recommended two stock picks for today. Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager of Technical Research at Anand Rathi, suggested three stocks, while Shiju Koothupalakkal, Senior Manager - Technical Research, at Prabhudas Lilladher has given three stocks picks.

These Include Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd, Punjab Chemicals & Crop Protection Ltd, BEML Ltd, Infosys Ltd , Triveni Engineering & Industries Ltd, GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals Ltd , Shipping Corporation of India Ltd and Bharat Dynamics Ltd.

Sumeet Bagadia's stock picks

1.Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd- Bagadia recommends buying Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) at ₹4610 keeping Stoploss at ₹4433 for a target price of ₹4930.

HAL urged by a remarkable 4.13% in Tuesday trade. The rally was backed by strong volumes and a sharp bullish candle, suggesting aggressive accumulation at lower levels. The counter has been on an strong uptrend since early March, marking a decisive breakout from a prolonged consolidation phase. A large bullish candle with strong range expansion underscores renewed investor confidence and robust momentum in the stock

2 Punjab Chemicals & Crop Protection Ltd - Bagadia recommends buying Punjab Chemicals at around ₹1080 keeping Stoploss at ₹1040 for a target price of ₹1160.

PUNJABCHEM, is currently trading at 1080, exhibits a strong uptrend, supported by its consistent position above key exponential moving averages (EMAs). Recent price action indicates a consolidation phase and showing strong signs of an impending breakout from its consolidation phase, and the technical indicators are aligning for a potential fresh upside rally.,

Ganesh Dongre's stocks to buy today

3. BEML Ltd- Dongre recommends buying BEML at around ₹3215 keeping Stoploss at ₹3150 for a target price of ₹3350.

In the short-term trend analysis, BEML is showing a strong bullish setup. On the daily chart, the stock has formed a Bullish Engulfing pattern, signalling a potential reversal after a recent correction. Additionally, BEML is sustaining above its short-term moving averages, further strengthening the bullish view. Currently holding a crucial support at ₹3150, the stock presents a buying opportunity at ₹3215. Traders can look for an upside move towards ₹3350, keeping a stop-loss placed at ₹3215 to manage risk effectively.

4. Infosys Ltd- Dongre recommends buying Infosys at around ₹1495 keeping Stoploss at around ₹1465 for a target price of ₹1535.

Similarly, INFY Saw has also demonstrated a positive reversal on its daily chart. The stock has formed a Morning Star pattern on weekly chart, which is a reliable bullish reversal signal after a downward phase. INFY is respecting its 20-day EMA, suggesting that fresh buying interest is returning at lower levels. With a strong support zone around ₹1450-60, the stock is favorably positioned for a buy at ₹1495, aiming for a short target of ₹1560. A protective stop-loss should be maintained at ₹1465.

5. Triveni Engineering & Industries Ltd - Dongre recommends buying Triveni Engineering at around ₹418 keeping Soploss at around ₹408 for a target price of ₹435.

Triveni Engineering has exhibited a Hammer candlestick formation near its important support area, indicating that the recent selling pressure may have exhausted. The stock is also holding well above its 50-day EMA, adding further conviction to the bullish setup. With the current market price around ₹418 and support firmly placed at ₹408, a buying opportunity emerges for a potential move towards ₹435. Traders are advised to keep a stop-loss at ₹408 to safeguard against unexpected downside movements.

Shiju Koothupalakkal's intraday stocks for today

6. GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals Ltd (GLAXO)- Koothupalakkal recommends buying GLAXO at around ₹2902 keeping Target price of ₹3070 keeping Stop loss at ₹2845

The stock has once again taking support near the 2800 zone has indicated an optimistic move with a positive candle formation accompanied by decent volume participation to improve the bias and can expect for further upward move in the coming session. The RSI is well placed and having much upside potential visible, it can once again regain for another fresh round of momentum. With the chart technically maintained strong, we suggest to buy the stock for an upside target of 3070 level keeping the stop loss of 2845 level.

7. Shipping Corporation of India Ltd- Koothupalakkal recommends buying Shipping Corporation at around ₹182.67 Target: ₹194 Stop loss: ₹178

The stock has slowly and gradually picked up recently taking support near the important 50EMA zone at 173 level and currently with a bullish candle formation along with tremendous volume participation visible has improved the bias anticipating for a decent rise in the coming sessions. The RSI is steadily on the rise signifying strength and has indicated much upside potential from current rate to carry on with the positive move further ahead. With the chart technically looking good, we suggest to buy the stock for an upside target of ₹194 level keeping the stop loss of ₹178 level.

8. Bharat Dynamics Ltd- Koothupalakkal recommends buying BHARAT DYNAMICS at around ₹1536 for a target price of ₹1620 keping Stop loss at ₹1500.

The stock has indicated a clear breakout above the rising trend line zone at ₹1470 level with huge volume participation visible to strengthen the trend and has high probability for further strong upward move in the coming sessions. With the RSI maintained strong, we expect further rise in the stock having much upside potential from current rate to carry on with the positive move. With the chart looking good, we suggest to buy the stock for an upside target of ₹1620 keeping the stop loss of ₹1500 level.

source: Mint

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Wednesday, April 30, 2025

30/04/25, Stock Market Today: The Benchmark Nifty-50 index, on a cautious note, ended almost flat (up 0.03%) at 24,335.95 on Tuesday. The Bank Nifty at 55,391.29 also ended marginally lower though metals, Pharma were key losers while IT index gained the most.

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Today's

25/07/25, NIFTY LEVELS

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