..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 19/06/25, The GIFT Nifty fell 0.21% to 24,810 as of 6:22 am, signning a negative start to the Indian equities. US equity futures edged lower alongside declines in Asian markets, following Wednesday's selloff on Wall Street after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday said he expected inflation to pickup in the coming months. The Fed left the rates unchanged in its meeting and indicated that there could be two further cuts this year. The FOMC decided to keep rates unchanged at the 4.25-4.5% range for the fourth time in a unanimous decision. It has raised the inflation projection to 3% in 2025, higher than the 2% target. At the same time, the US GDP growth forecast has been lowered to 1.4%. The 'dot plot' is unchanged from March. Fed still sees two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2025. Jerome Powell said uncertainty remains high amid tariff tensions and the Middle East crisis. He said the effects of Trump tariffs will depend, among other things, on their ultimate level. "Increases in tariffs this year will likely push up prices and waeigh on economic activity." .

Thursday, June 19, 2025

19/06/25, The GIFT Nifty fell 0.21% to 24,810 as of 6:22 am, signning a negative start to the Indian equities. US equity futures edged lower alongside declines in Asian markets, following Wednesday's selloff on Wall Street after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday said he expected inflation to pickup in the coming months. The Fed left the rates unchanged in its meeting and indicated that there could be two further cuts this year. The FOMC decided to keep rates unchanged at the 4.25-4.5% range for the fourth time in a unanimous decision. It has raised the inflation projection to 3% in 2025, higher than the 2% target. At the same time, the US GDP growth forecast has been lowered to 1.4%. The 'dot plot' is unchanged from March. Fed still sees two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2025. Jerome Powell said uncertainty remains high amid tariff tensions and the Middle East crisis. He said the effects of Trump tariffs will depend, among other things, on their ultimate level. "Increases in tariffs this year will likely push up prices and waeigh on economic activity." .

The benchmark equity indices continued to decline for the second straight day on Wednesday, dragged by share prices of ICICI Bank Ltd. and Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. The NSE Nifty 50 ended 41.35 points or 0.17% lower at 24,812.05, while the BSE Sensex closed 138.64 points or 0.17% down at 81,444.66.

Foreign portfolio investors remained net buyers of Indian equities for the second consecutive session on Wednesday, mopping stocks worth Rs 891 crore, according to the provisional data from the National Stock Exchange. Domestic institutional investors continued to stay net buyers for the 24th straight session as they obtained equities worth Rs 1,091.3 crore, the data showed.

The Securities and Exchange Board of India conducted its 210th board meeting on Wednesday and several big-ticket market reforms were discussed. Important points discussed include:

Easing rules for foreign investors in government bonds.
Rolling out of NSEL settlement scheme for NSEL stockbrokers.
Allowing startup founders to hold ESOPs granted a year before going public.
Allowing delisting relaxations for PSUs through fixed price process.

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S&P 500 futures declined 0.3%.
Futures linked to Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 0.5%.
Japan's Topix index was down 0.6%.
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.2%.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures dropped 0.4%.

The downturn comes as Wall Street erased its gains following Fed's decision to hold rates steady, coupled with Powell's latest warning on tariffs. The US stocks ended the session little changed with S&P 500 index closing 0.03% lower at 5,980.87, Nasdaq 100 index ended flat at 21,719.69 and Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.10% to 42,171.66.

WTI declined for the third consecutive trading session, down 0.19%.
Brent crude declined 0.85% lower.

Copper ended 0.5% lower.
Aluminium snapped two day gaining streak and ended 0.02% higher.
Zinc ended flat after it posted losses in the last session.
Nickel also ended flat after declining for eight consecutive trading session.
Lead slumps for the fourth consecutive trading session, down 0.18%.

Vodafone Idea: The company signed an agreement with AST Spacemobile to expand mobile connectivity and bring direct-to-device satellite broadband connectivity.
Garware Technical: The company incorporated wholly owned subsidiary Garwares Technical Fibres AS in Norway.
ESAF Small Finance Bank: The bank approved the proposal for sale of NPA, written-off loans to Asset Reconstruction Company.
Aavas Financiers: The company approved issuance of NCDs worth Rs 200 crore.
Hero Motocorp: The company to introduce Vida VX2 with Battery-As-A-Service Model. Pay-as-you-go' battery subscription model to make VIDA Electric Vehicle ownership more flexible, affordable.
Jio Financial Services: The company acquired 7.9 crore shares of Jio Payments Bank from SBI for Rs 105 crore. Post Acquisition Jio Payments Bank becomes wholly owned subsidiary of the company.
Zydus Lifesciences: TheUSFDA closes inspection at Ahmedabad plant with 2 observations. The inspection was from June 9 to 18.
Inox Green Energy: Promoter Devansh Trademart further acquired 30,000 shares of the company via open market transactions.
EL CID Investment: Ragini Vakil resigned as Chief Financial Officer. The company appointed Shraddha Manjrekar as CFO effective June 19.
South Indian Bank: The company revised MCLR applicable for multiple tenors effective from June 20.
Axiscades: The company to expand strategic cooperation with MBDA. The company has undertaken built-to-spec and built-to-print assignments on Test Benches for MBDA.
Himadri Speciality Chemical: Birla Tyre unveils new brand along with the logo and website.
Choice International: The company is in an agreement to acquire a further 50% stake in arm for Rs 62.5 crore.
Ashoka Buildcon: The company arm and company received work orders for Intelligent traffic management projects across Maharashtra.
Medplus Health Services: The arm received four suspension orders for drug licenses for Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka stores.
Morepen Labs: The company incorporated wholly owned subsidiary Morepen Labs-FZCO in UAE.
Siemens: Siemens Energy India received an approval from BSE, NSE for listing and trading.
Tata Elxsi: The company signed an MoU with Infineon to jointly develop EV solutions tailored for Indian market.
Puravankara: The company arm received a work order worth Rs 272 crore from TRU Dwellings.

Arisinfra Solutions: The public issue was subscribed to 0.24 times on day 1. There were no bids were by qualified institutional investors, while non-institutional investors bid 0.19 times, and retail investors bid 1.04 times.

Inventurus Knowledge Solutions: Multiple individual sellers are looking to sell up to 1.5% stake each via block deals today at an indicative offer price of Rs 1,650, a 3.2% discount to the current market price, with the total offer size, including the greenshoe option, standing at Rs 416 crore, and ICICI Securities serving as the sole merchant banker to the deal.

SKY Gold and Diamonds: Mangesh R Chauhan HUF sold 26.5 lakh shares (1.8%) at Rs 348.08 apiece, Darshan R Chauhan HUF sold 26.5 lakh shares (1.8%) at Rs 348.08 apiece, Mahendra C Chauhan Huf sold 17 lakh shares (1.15%) at Rs 351.01 apiece, Perundevi Krishnan sold 10.3 lakh shares (0.7%) at Rs 345.79 apiece, Bank Of India Mutual Fund bought 7.8 lakh shares (0.53%) at Rs 346 apiece.
Hindustan Zinc: Vedanta Limited sold 6.67 crore shares (1.57%) at Rs 454.05 apiece.

NCL Industries: Promoter P Varalakshmi (Revised) sold 50,355 shares.
Bharat Bijlee: Promoter Anand J. Danani sold 3500 shares.
Crest Ventures: Promoter Priyanka Finance Private bought 66,001 shares.
Usha Martin: Promoter Peterhouse Investments India Ltd. sold 1.5 lakh shares.
Jtekt India: Promoter Jtekt Bearings India Private Limited bought 10000 shares.
Geojit Financial Services: Promoter BNP Paribas Sa sold 3 lakh shares.
Insolation Energy: Promoter Vikas Jain HUF bought 2000 shares.
Aarti Pharmalabs: Promoter Orchid Family Trust sold 75,000 shares.

Price Band change from 10% to 5%: Excel Realty N Infra.
List of securities to be included from LT-ASM Framework: Subros,
List of securities to be included from ST-ASM Framework: Puravankara, Kernex Microsystems, Cosmo First.
Ex- Dividend: Reliance Industrial Infrastructure, Tejas Networks, Tata Communications.
Shares to Exit Anchor Lock-In: Indian Shelter Finance (21%).

Nifty June Futures down by 0.22% to 24,813 at a premium of 1 points.
Nifty June futures open interest down by 3.14%.
Nifty Options June 19 Expiry: Maximum Call open interest at 25,000 and Maximum Put open interest at 24,000.
Securities in ban period: Aditya Birla Fashion,Birlasoft,CDSL,Chambal Fertilizers, HUDCO, IREDA, Manappuram, RBL Bank, Titagarh.
- The Indian rupee closed 23 paise weaker against the US dollar at 86.47.
- The yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond ended flat at 6.32%.
- source: NDTV Profit

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Thursday, June 19, 2025

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19/06/25, Nifty Levels

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