..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 09/07/25, stocks to buy for short term holding

Wednesday, July 9, 2025

09/07/25, stocks to buy for short term holding

Expert: Mandar Bhojane, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Choice Broking

Bajaj Finserv | Previous close: ₹2,006.70 | Target price: ₹2,200 | Stop loss: ₹1,930

Bajaj Finserv is showing signs of a potential breakout. On the daily chart, the stock has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, a continuation setup, and is consolidating near the breakout zone with rising volumes, indicating growing buying interest.

The stock trades above all key EMAs (20, 50, 100, and 200), reflecting strength across multiple timeframes. The RSI at 49.15 is trending upward, showing building momentum while staying below overbought levels, which gives room for further upside.

"A decisive close above ₹2,050 would confirm the breakout and could open the path toward the next targets of ₹2,200 and beyond. On the downside, immediate support is seen at ₹1,980, and traders should maintain a stop-loss at ₹1,930 to manage risk effectively," said Bhojane.

Britannia Industries | Previous close: ₹5,883.65 | Target price: ₹6,400 | Stop loss: ₹3,650

Britannia Industries has recently broken out of its daily range and is now consolidating above the breakout level with strong volumes, indicating sustained buying interest and bullish continuation potential.

"If the price manages to sustain above ₹5,890, the stock has the potential to rally towards ₹6,400 in the near term," said Bhojane.

The stock is trading well above its 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs, signalling strength across all major timeframes.

The RSI stands at 66.9 and is trending upward, reflecting solid momentum without entering the overbought zone-an encouraging sign of healthy price action.

"From a trading perspective, a buy-on-dips strategy near ₹5,750 could offer an attractive entry point. For risk management, a stop-loss at ₹5,650 is recommended (earlier typo fixed). If the stock holds above ₹5,890, it presents a strong risk-reward setup for positional traders aiming for ₹6,400 targets," said Bhojane.

Cummins India | Previous close: ₹3,437.75 | Target price: ₹3,700 | Stop loss: ₹3,300

Cummins India has recently broken out of a rounding bottom pattern. Post breakout, the price is now forming a small cup and handle pattern on the two-hour chart and is on the verge of a breakout with rising volume, indicating growing bullish momentum and fresh buying interest.

Momentum indicators further support the positive setup; RSI is at 66.45 and trending upward, highlighting sustained buying activity.

"On the downside, ₹3,400 acts as immediate support and may serve as a buy-on-dips zone. For effective risk management, a stop-loss at ₹3,300 is advised," said Bhojane.

'If the bullish momentum continues and the handle breakout is confirmed, the stock has the potential to rally toward ₹3,700, making it attractive for both swing and positional traders," Bhojane said.

Expert: Vishnu Kant Upadhyay, AVP - Research & Advisory, Master Capital Services

Dabur India | Previous close: ₹512.75 | Target prices: ₹556 and ₹580 | Stop loss: ₹478

Dabur India has given a strong breakout above the falling trendline resistance with a surge in volume, signalling a potential trend reversal.

The stock has reclaimed its 200-day EMA for the first time in months, indicating strengthening bullish sentiment.

Momentum indicators support the move - MACD has generated a fresh bullish crossover above the zero line, and RSI has entered the overbought zone, reflecting strong buying pressure.

"Prices are now looking to pave the way for ₹556 and then ₹580 with the validation of ₹478 on the downside," said Upadhyay.

Fortis Healthcare | Previous close: ₹805.45 | Target prices: ₹882 and ₹895 | Stop loss: ₹744

Fortis Healthcare is exhibiting a strong bullish structure as the stock continues to form higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart.

Prices are comfortably trading above key exponential moving averages, reinforcing bullish momentum.

The MACD remains in the positive territory with a potential crossover setup, suggesting strength in trend continuation. RSI is hovering near 67, indicating strong momentum but still below overbought territory.

"Overall, the technical setup indicates a healthy uptrend, and any minor dips toward the short-term EMA may offer potential buying opportunities," said Upadhyay.

Federal Bank | Previous close: ₹215 | Target price: ₹235 | Stop loss: ₹202

Federal Bank has witnessed a breakout from an ascending triangle pattern and is currently trading above the breakout zone, supported by strong bullish momentum.

The stock is sustaining above its key exponential moving averages (34-EMA and 200-EMA), reflecting a robust trend structure.

MACD is in the positive zone, indicating continued buying interest, while RSI at 61 suggests strength without being overbought. The recent price action and volume behaviour validate the breakout.

"As long as the price holds above the ₹202 support zone, the short-term trend remains bullish with potential for upside towards ₹235. Dips may offer attractive buying opportunities," said Upadhyay.

source: Mint

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Wednesday, July 9, 2025

09/07/25, stocks to buy for short term holding

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Today's

11/07/25, The trading floor may see a flurry of stock-specific action today as a series of fresh developments come into play. Whether it is regulatory updates, new partnerships, or company-specific triggers, several stocks are poised to see increased activity.

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