..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 24/07/25, Indian stock market: The domestic equity market indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open higher on Thursday, following positive cues from global markets.

Thursday, July 24, 2025

24/07/25, Indian stock market: The domestic equity market indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open higher on Thursday, following positive cues from global markets.

Asian markets traded higher, while the US stock market rallied overnight on reports of trade deals, with the Nasdaq and S&P closing at record highs.

On Wednesday, the Indian stock market ended with strong gains, lifted by a rally in index heavyweights, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing above 25,200 level.

The Sensex surged 539.83 points, or 0.66%, to close at 82,726.64, while the Nifty 50 settled 159.00 points, or 0.63%, higher at 25,219.90.

👉"The ongoing recovery is being driven primarily by strength in banking majors, while heavyweights from other key sectors are showing signs of stabilization following the recent correction. We maintain our cautious stance and continue to recommend a hedged approach," said Ajit Mishra - SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.

Here are key global market cues for Sensex today:

Asian Markets

Asian markets traded higher on Thursday, tracking overnight rally on Wall Street, amid trade deal optimism. Japan's Nikkei 225 rallied 1.7%, while Topix rose 1.2% to hit a record high. South Korea's Kospi gained 1.17%, and the Kosdaq rose 0.64%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index futures indicated a marginally higher opening.

Gift Nifty Today

Gift Nifty was trading around 25,297 level, a premium of nearly 44 points from the Nifty futures' previous close, indicating a positive start for the Indian stock market indices.

Wall Street

US stock market ended higher on Wednesday on optimism over a trade deal with the European Union, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notching record high closes.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 1.14% to 45,010.29, while the S&P 500 rose 0.78% to end at 6,358.91. The Nasdaq closed 0.61% higher at 21,020.02.

Nvidia share price jumped 2.25%, Tesla stock price rose 0.14%, while Alphabet shares fell 0.58%. GE Vernova share price surged 14.6%, Thermo Fisher stock rallied over 9%, while Texas Instruments shares tanked 13%.

US Home Sales

US existing home sales fell more than expected in June. Home sales dropped 2.7% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.93 million units. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home resales would slip to a rate of 4.00 million units. Sales were unchanged on a year-over-year basis in June.

Tesla Q2 Results

Tesla's net profit in the second quarter fell 16% to $1.17 billion, or 33 cents a share, from $1.4 billion, or 40 cents a share, YoY. Revenue fell to $22.5 billion for the April-June quarter from $25.50 billion YoY, slightly behind analyst targets compiled by LSEG. Adjusted profit per share of 40 cents lagged the Wall Street consensus. The automotive gross margin, which excludes regulatory credits, was 14.96%. Tesla share price plunged 4.44% in after-market hours.

Alphabet Q2 Results

Google parent Alphabet Inc. reported June quarter net profit of $28.2 billion, or $2.31 per share, a 19% increase from the same time last year. Revenue rose 14% from a year ago to $96.4 billion, beating analysts' projections. Alphabet share price was up nearly 2% in after-market trades.

Infosys Q1 Results

Infosys' net profit in Q1FY26 declined 1.6% QoQ to ₹6,920 crore, while its revenue increased 3.3% QoQ to ₹42,279 crore. The IT major posted 2.6% QoQ growth in constant currency revenue. EBIT rose 2.66% to ₹8,803 crore, while margin fell to 20.8% from 21%, QoQ. Infosys expects revenue growth of 1-3% in CC terms for FY26, revised up from 0-3% earlier. The firm maintained its operating margin guidance at 20-22%.

Japan PMI

The S&P Global Japan composite PMI in July remained unchanged from June's 51.5. The S&P Global Japan manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.8 in July from June's final reading of 50.1. Services PMI increased to 53.5 in July from 51.7 in June.

Gold Prices

Gold prices were steady as trade talks between the US and key trading partners dented safe-haven demand. Spot gold price was up 0.1% to $3,389.77 an ounce, following a 1.3% loss in the previous session.

Crude Oil Prices

Crude oil prices steadied on US trade talk progress and low inventory levels. Brent crude oil prices rose 0.31% to $68.72 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 0.35% to $65.48.

(With inputs from Reuters by Mint)

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies.We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Thursday, July 24, 2025

24/07/25, Indian stock market: The domestic equity market indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open higher on Thursday, following positive cues from global markets.

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25/07/25, NIFTY LEVELS

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