..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 05/08/25, After a bruising July for Indian equity markets, all eyes are now on August, with hopes pinned on the technology sector to bring back some cheer.

Tuesday, August 5, 2025

05/08/25, After a bruising July for Indian equity markets, all eyes are now on August, with hopes pinned on the technology sector to bring back some cheer.

The Nifty IT index dragged the Nifty50 in July registering a fall of 9.70%.

The giants of the IT index, like HCL Tech (-15.08%), Persistent (-14.58%), and TCS (-12.28%), led the downward spiral. In fact, MPHASIS was the lone bright spot, with a gain of 0.06%.

While July’s performance came as a disappointment, seasonality analysis suggests that August could offer a much-needed recovery for tech stocks.

Seasonality analysis is a method to understand how an asset typically performs during specific months or periods of the year.

Nifty IT Seasonality Index

Source: RZone, Definedge

In August, the Nifty IT index had an average return of 2.40%. The returns are with a 67% strike rate, meaning in two out of every three years, August has closed in the green.

But we are not relying only on seasonality; the technical charts are also showing promising signs.

Nifty IT Weekly Chart

Source: Tradingview

The weekly chart of the Nifty IT index shows that a critical technical support level at the 262-week exponential moving average (WEMA) channel, calculated using both the high and low values of 262WEMA, has once again come into play.

Historically, this channel has served as a demand zone for the IT sector. In the last couple of decades, the index has breached below this zone in 2003, 2008, and 2020 and each coinciding with broader market panic situations. The index reversed from this zone in April 2025, marking it as an important support once again.

The current retracement may be a potential buying opportunity for bulls who are focused on medium-to-long-term horizons.

Seasonality Analysis of Nifty IT Constituents

Source: RZone, Definedge

LTIMindtree (LTIM) leads the table with consistent positive returns. Still, the giants like Infosys and TCS which together command a 51% weightage in the Nifty IT index will have a disproportionate impact on the broader index.

Infosys Weekly Chart

Source: Tradingview

Infosys has historically respected the 262WEMA channel. During the COVID-19 crash in 2020, the stock fell sharply but found support in this very channel, from where it staged a remarkable recovery. Interestingly, the stock is once again hovering around this support.

If the past is any guide, such levels have often turned out to be turning points for the stock. The retracement in July has brought the stock back into this historically proven demand zone and any reversal in Infosys may lift the Nifty IT index.

TCS Weekly Chart

Source: Tradingview

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart has slipped below 35, which has acted as the caution zone for bears. This is only the fifth instance since 2008 that the TCS has seen such a low RSI reading. On all previous occasions, TCS has offered good medium-term reversal opportunities after such oversold conditions.

Additionally, TCS is hovering near its long-term moving average of 200WEMA. The average has historically acted as a support level to the stock price. The convergence of an oversold RSI and 200WEMA indicates a potential reversal zone.

Can History Repeat in August?

The stock market tends to rhyme with the past, if not repeat exactly. August has historically been favourable for the IT sector and when it aligns with strong technical levels, the probability of a reversal increases manifold.

With Infosys and TCS making up over half of the Nifty IT index, any reversal in these stocks can potentially restore market sentiment. With seasonality in favour and technical showing strength, August 2025 might be the month when Indian IT regains its lost mojo.

Disclaimer

Note: The purpose of this article is only to share interesting charts, data points and thought-provoking opinions. It is NOT a recommendation. If you wish to consider an investment, you are strongly advised to consult your advisor. This article is strictly for educative purposes only.

As per SEBI guidelines, the writer and his dependents may or may not hold the stocks/commodities/cryptos/any other assets discussed here. However, clients of Jainam Broking Limited may or may not own these securities.

Kiran Jani has over 15 years of experience as a trader and technical analyst in India’s financial markets. He is a well-known face on the business channels as Market Experts and has worked with Asit C Mehta, Kotak Commodities, and Axis Securities. Presently, he is Head of the Technical and Derivative Research Desk at Jainam Broking Limited.

Disclosure: The writer and his dependents do not hold the stocks discussed here. However, clients of Jainam Broking Limited may or may not own these securities.

By Financial Express

No comments:

Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

Pages

logo

Tuesday, August 5, 2025

05/08/25, After a bruising July for Indian equity markets, all eyes are now on August, with hopes pinned on the technology sector to bring back some cheer.

No comments:

Today's

06/08/25, Nifty Levels

.

Translate