..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 25/11/25, US PostMarket Report

Tuesday, November 25, 2025

25/11/25, US PostMarket Report

Wall Street kicked off the current trading week on a strong note, with the S&P 500 gaining by more than 1.5% and the Nasdaq Composite surging nearly 3%.

Dow Jones also followed a positive trend. This is a holiday-shortened week due to the Thanksgiving celebration going ahead. The US market's robust performance also comes at a time when investors' confidence is heightened for further policy easing from US Federal Reserve in December.

US Market Today:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: The DJIA index traded at 46,456.34, up by 210.93 points or 0.46% at the time of writing. The benchmark touched an intraday high of 46,587.71 in the early trade.

S&P 500: Meantime, the S&P 500 index climbed by at least 1.7% to hit an intraday high of 6,712.77. The benchmark traded currently at 6,699.40, up by 1.5%.

Nasdaq Composite: The tech-heavy index rallied the most by 2.72% to hit an intraday high of 22,879.73. Currently, the index is near its day's high to trade at 22,837.20, up by 2.5%.

What Is Impacting US Market Today?

US stocks rallied to start the holiday shortened week with the S&P 500 up 1.6% the Nasdaq jumping 2.6% and the Dow adding just over 300 points as investors grew more confident the Fed will ease policy soon. New York Fed President John Williams signalled there is room for a near term rate cut and Fed Governor Christopher Waller said recent labour market softening makes a December trim plausible, as per Trading Economics data.

Furthermore, as per CME FedWatch, futures has put about 79% probability on a 25bp cut at the Dec 9 and 10 meeting.

It also highlighted that traders are facing a busy economic calendar this week which includes data of delayed US retail sales and PPI data. These economic parameters will give further clarity on Fed's stance in December.

Among the stocks, the best performers were technology stocks driven by Broadcom who gained by over 10% owing to revived sentiment in AI stocks. Also, Alphabet stock climbed more than 4% and Gemini was up by over 3%. The world's richest man, Elon Musk-backed Tesla also surged by over 7%.

Overall the positive prospects in the AI segment has stirred fresh buying.

US Market Weekly Outlook:

Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy, SCFR said, "This week features several Treasury auctions, including a 2-year today following lackluster demand earlier this month. Tomorrow brings the delayed September Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales reports. Checking technicals, Friday's close looked positive as the S&P 500 index finished above its 100-day moving average. That trendline, now at 6,548, forms key support."

He added, "Investors appear to have a line in the sand to trade against and the near-term assessment is moderately bullish."

What could challenge Nathan's forecast? As per him, if there are more AI deal announcements, or a continued push higher in CDS premium from AI players like Oracle, this could weigh on investor sentiment and lead to selling. Another potential bearish catalyst would be a hot personal consumption expenditure (PCE) report next Wednesday.

Key Economic Data To Watch Out:

November 25 (Tuesday)

Consumer Confidence, Producer Price Index (PPI), FHFA Housing Price Index, Pending Home Sales, SA&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index

November 26 (Wednesday)

Advertised International Trade in Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories, Advanced Wholesale Inventories, Chicago PMI, Durable Orders, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, Q3 GDP - Second Estimate, MBA Mortgage Applications Index, New Home Sales, PCE Prices, Personal Income Personal Spending, Continuing Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Initial Claims

Earnings To Watch Out This Week:

November 24 (Monday)

Agilent Technologies Inc. (A), Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM), Corporation America Airports SA (CAAP), Keysight Technologies Inc. (KEYS), Semtech Corp. (SMTC), Symbotic Inc. (SYM), Woodward Inc. (WWD), Zoom Communications Inc. (ZM)

November 25 (Tuesday)

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA), Analog Devices Inc. (ADI), Autodesk Inc. (ADSK), Best Buy Co. (BBY), Burlington Stores Inc. (BURL), Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL), Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. (DKS), NetApp Inc. (NTAP), NIO Inc. (NIO), Workday Inc. (WDAY), Zscaler Inc. (ZS)

November 26 (Wednesday)

Banco Macro SA (BMA), CMB Tech NV (CMBT), Deere & Co. (DE), Ehang Holdings Ltd. (EH), Li Auto Inc. (LI)

By Pooja Jaiswar

goodreturns.in

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Tuesday, November 25, 2025

25/11/25, US PostMarket Report

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Today's

05/12/25, RBI MPC meeting: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is all set to announce its bi-monthly monetary policy decision on Friday, December 5. Governor Sanjay Malhotra will reveal the outcome of the three-day RBI monetary policy meeting, which started on Wednesday, December 3.

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