..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 29/11/25, Sensex Prediction For Monday By Experts, Dec 1: Sensex and Nifty 50 closed almost unchanged on Friday (November 29) in a highly volatile trade, day after making record highs (all-time high levels).

Saturday, November 29, 2025

29/11/25, Sensex Prediction For Monday By Experts, Dec 1: Sensex and Nifty 50 closed almost unchanged on Friday (November 29) in a highly volatile trade, day after making record highs (all-time high levels).

Halting its two-day rally, the BSE Sensex slipped 13.71 points or 0.02 per cent to end at 85,706.67. During the day, Sensex hit a high of 85,969.89 and a low of 85,577.82. Likewise, the NSE Nifty skidded 12.60 points or 0.05 per cent to 26,202.95.

Earlier on Thursday, both the benchmark indices had scaled to fresh lifetime high levels in intraday trade after a gap of 14 months. While Sensex hit a fresh high of 86,055.86, Nifty 50 hit a high of 26,310.45.

On weekly basis, Sensex climbed 474.75 points or 0.55 per cent whereas the Nifty 50 surged 134.80 points or 0.51 per cent.

Sensex: Top Gainers, Losers

As per BSE website, 1960 stocks advances while 2,197 declined during Friday's trade. In the BSE Sensex pack, 12 stocks from the Sensex pack gained while 18 declined. The top gainers were: M&M, Sun Pharma, SBI, Kotak Mahindra Bank, HUL, Adani Ports, Tech Mahindra and Bajaj Finance. Power Grid, Eternal, Airtel, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Infosys, Trent, BEL, L&T and TMPV were the losers.

The market capitalisation of all the BSE-listed companies stood at Rs 4,74,35,859.94 crore.

FII, DII Activity

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 3,795.72 crore on Friday, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought stocks worth Rs 4,148.48 crore, according to exchange data.

Sensex Support And Resistance Levels

SEBI-registered analyst Vipin Dixena said that Sensex is holding above the 50-period EMA, indicating that the broader short-term trend remains upward. The momentum indicators show a cooling phase, with RSI easing from overbought territory and moving toward neutral levels. He said that this reflects a healthy pause rather than a deterioration in trend.

As long as Sensex holds above 85,500, buyers are likely to defend declines, the market expert said.

Sensex Prediction: Breakout Level

On the upside, 86,045 remains the immediate resistance for Sensex. "A breakout above 86,045 will open the door for a fresh rally. If Sensex falls below 85,500, then the index could slip further in the short-term."

Hitesh Tailor, Research Analyst, Choice Equity Broking, said that Sensex could consolidate next week after hitting all-time high levels. On the technical front, Sensex has immediate resistance at 86,000. A decisive close above 86,000 will trigger fresh buying. On the downside, 85,200 to 85,300 zone is expected to act as near-term support, the market expert said.

Stock Market Prediction Next Week: Key Things To Watch

Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking said that broader market sentiment has improved, but participation remains selective next week. He said that markets will be influenced next week by monthly auto sales data, manufacturing data, services and composite PMI readings. The most crucial event will be the RBI's monetary policy meeting on December 5, where commentary on inflation, growth and the rate-cut outlook will be closely watched.

"Globally, US macro data will remain the dominant driver for risk sentiment as markets refine expectations for the Federal Reserve's December policy decision and its implications for foreign flows," he said.

(Disclaimer: The above article is meant for informational purposes only, and should not be considered as any investment advice. Economic Times suggests its readers/audience to consult their financial advisors before making any money related decisions.)

source: Economic Times

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Saturday, November 29, 2025

29/11/25, Sensex Prediction For Monday By Experts, Dec 1: Sensex and Nifty 50 closed almost unchanged on Friday (November 29) in a highly volatile trade, day after making record highs (all-time high levels).

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