..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 03/12/25, On Tuesday (02-12-25), the Nifty index continued its drop by 143.55 points, finishing at 26,032.20, dipping below the lows of the previous three trading sessions.

Wednesday, December 3, 2025

03/12/25, On Tuesday (02-12-25), the Nifty index continued its drop by 143.55 points, finishing at 26,032.20, dipping below the lows of the previous three trading sessions.

The Nifty index saw some profit-taking and significant selling pressure at higher levels, but its underlying gain remained muted because the benchmark is currently trading around a crucial make-or-break point.

By finishing at 59,273.80 and falling below the lows of the preceding three sessions, the Bank Nifty index continued its downward trend by 407.55 points. The Nifty Bank index experienced little profit booking and significant selling pressure at higher levels, but its underlying gain remained mostly muted as the benchmark is still close to a critical support zone.

The India VIX dropped 3.42 percent to 11.22, showing a decline in hedging demand and a generally calm market environment despite the correction, as volatility continued to decline.

Nifty Outlook Today(3/12/25)

"From a technical perspective, the index is undergoing a healthy retracement, hovering around its 20-DEMA-a level that has historically served as a strong reversal point in past sessions. A decisive move above the 26,150 zone-an immediate supply area aligned with the lows of the last three sessions-could reignite momentum and pave the path toward the 26,350 mark. Meanwhile, holding above the 20-DEMA near 26,000 along with the upward-sloping trendline remains essential, reinforcing this pocket as a robust accumulation zone," commented Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities.

"On the upside, 26,350 continues to be the key resistance level to watch. With momentum compressed and price action largely directionless, a breakout on either side is required for the index to re-establish trend strength. As long as Nifty sustains above the 26,000 demand band, sentiment is likely to stay sideways, with dips expected to attract fresh buying. Momentum indicators echo this stance, with the 14-day RSI easing towards 55, indicating a shift toward a more neutral setup. In the near term, 26,150 will act as a crucial pivot resistance, while 26,000 stands as the final make-or-break support," he further added.

Bank Nifty Outlook Today(3/12/25)

"From a technical viewpoint, the index is undergoing a healthy retracement, presently hovering around its 10-DEMA-a level that has consistently acted as a reversal zone in earlier sessions. A decisive move above the 59,650 region-the immediate supply pocket aligned with the past three sessions' lows-could reignite momentum and open the path toward the 60,100 mark. Meanwhile, holding above the 10-DEMA near 59,200, along with the upward-sloping trendline, remains essential, reinforcing this zone as a dependable accumulation pocket," commented Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities.

"On the upside, 59,650 continues to stand out as the primary resistance to monitor. With momentum compressed and directional clarity lacking, the index requires a breakout on either side to re-establish strength. As long as Nifty Bank stays above the 59,000 demand region, market sentiment is expected to remain neutral, with dips likely to attract renewed buying interest. Momentum indicators support this stance, with the 14-day RSI still hovering above 60, highlighting a shift toward a more sideways bias. In the near term, 59,650 serves as a crucial pivot barrier, while 59,000 remains the ultimate make-or-break zone," he further stated.

Stocks To Buy Today(3/12/25)

On Wednesday, December 3, technical analyst Riyank Arora of Mehta Equities Ltd. recommended buying two stocks after the Nifty extends its decline; all eyes are on 26,000 as the index navigates a pivotal reversal zone.

Dr. Reddy's

Buy | CMP: Rs 1,275.20 | SL: Rs 1,245 | Target: Rs 1,310 / Rs 1,330

Dr. Reddy's is trading firmly within a rising channel and continues to attract buying interest on dips. The ₹1,245 zone has acted as a strong floor. RSI remains positive, supporting further upside. A sustained move above ₹1,285 may lead to targets of ₹1,310 and ₹1,330. Keep SL at ₹1,245.

Maruti Suzuki

Buy | CMP: Rs 16,239.00 | SL: Rs 15,950 | Target: Rs 16,550 / Rs 16,900

Maruti is maintaining its bullish trajectory with higher lows and strong momentum. The price is comfortably above its medium-term moving averages, highlighting trend continuation. A move above ₹16,300 can extend the rally toward ₹16,550 and ₹16,900. SL placed at ₹15,950.

Report prepared by Vipul Das of www.goodreturns.in

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations expressed are solely those of the individual analysts or entities. We do not guarantee, endorse or take responsibility for the accuracy, completeness or reliability of any content, nor do we provide any investment advice or solicit the purchase or sale of securities. All information is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should be independently verified from licensed financial advisors before making any investment decisions.

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Wednesday, December 3, 2025

03/12/25, On Tuesday (02-12-25), the Nifty index continued its drop by 143.55 points, finishing at 26,032.20, dipping below the lows of the previous three trading sessions.

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04/12/25,

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