..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 18/12/25, Buy or sell stocks By Vishali Parekh: Global markets enter today's session on a cautious footing following a sharp overnight sell-off in the US. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow extended their losing streak as investors booked profits in high-valuation technology and AI stocks.

Thursday, December 18, 2025

18/12/25, Buy or sell stocks By Vishali Parekh: Global markets enter today's session on a cautious footing following a sharp overnight sell-off in the US. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow extended their losing streak as investors booked profits in high-valuation technology and AI stocks.

Renewed scepticism around AI capex returns, reports of funding pullbacks in data-centre investments, and a visible rotation toward defensive sectors have reinforced a risk-off tone. Investor sentiment also remains cautious ahead of the release of US consumer price inflation data, with divided views in the market over the future trajectory of monetary policy, prompting participants to stay defensive and avoid aggressive positioning.

Asian markets opened on a weak note, mirroring the subdued tone on Wall Street after several sessions of sustained selling. This pressure is likely to spill over into Indian equities at the open. That said, the selling seen so far does not reflect panic; instead, it appears to be a valuation-led reset following a strong rally, rather than any indication of a structural breakdown.

Stock market today

Vaishali Parekh, Vice President of Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher, believes the Indian stock market sentiment has turned weak as the Nifty 50 index fell further and finished around the 25,800 level, which is close to the 50-DEMA support placed at around 25,750. If the 50-stock index breaks below this support, it may attempt to test the 25,500 to 25,400 levels. On the upper side, the key benchmark index is facing a hurdle at 26,000. Breaking above this level on a closing basis would fuel positive conviction among bulls.

Speaking on the outlook of the Nifty 50 index, Vaishali Parekh said, "The Nifty 50 index witnessed another day of profit booking, which ended above the 25,800 zone with bias slightly weakened and with near-term support positioned near the 25,750 level; it would need a revival to maintain the bias intact. With the overall bias still maintained at a positive level, we have major support near the 25,700 zone. At the same time, on the upside, a decisive breach above the 26,050 level is necessary to establish conviction and continue with the positive uptrend in the coming days, having the 26,200 level as the next immediate target."

On the outlook of the Bank Nifty index, Parekh said, "The Bank Nifty index continued to move within the tight range, resisting near the 59,150 zone, witnessing a sluggish session to end near the 59,000 level with bias maintained intact. As said earlier, a decisive breach above the 59,500 zone is much needed to expect a fresh upward move in the coming days, having the higher target of the 60,000 level, with the crucial near-term support positioned near the 50-DEMA level of 58,300, which needs to be sustained to keep the overall bias intact."

Parekh stated that immediate support for the Nifty 50 index is located at 26,000. The Bank Nifty is expected to have a daily range of 58,500 to 59,500.

Vaishali Parekh's stock recommendations today

Regarding stocks to buy today, Vaishali Parekh recommended three buy-or-sell stocks for intraday trading on Thursday: GNA Axles, Grasim Industries, and ONGC.

1] GNA Axles: Buy at ₹307, Target ₹320, Stop Loss ₹300;

2] Grasim Industries: Buy at ₹2805, Target ₹2850, Stop Loss ₹2770; and

3] ONGC: Buy at ₹232, Target ₹243, Stop Loss ₹228.

Report by Vishali Parekh for MINT

Who is Vaishali Parekh

Vaishali Parekh is an Assistant VP, Technical Research & Analysis at Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt, bringing extensive expertise in technical research and analysis within the financial markets. Their background includes providing market insights and trading recommendations.

During their tenure at Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt, Vaishali progressed through roles of increasing responsibility, demonstrating a deep understanding of technical analysis and market dynamics. They have experience as a Manager, Technical Research & Analysis, and as a Senior Technical Research Analyst. In these capacities, Vaishali provided Nifty Bank Nifty daily trading calls along with overall market views. They also catered to sub-brokers with market calls, including momentum and weekly positional strategies. Vaishali's work history includes analyzing market trends and formulating trading strategies.

Vaishali's expertise encompasses analyzing market data, interpreting financial indicators, and providing actionable trading recommendations. Their capabilities include contributing to investment reporting and supporting financial operations within the financial sector. They apply their knowledge of financial analysis to interpret market data and inform strategic decisions.

Vaishali holds a Bachelor of Commerce degree from R. A. Podar College of Commerce & Economics.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Thursday, December 18, 2025

18/12/25, Buy or sell stocks By Vishali Parekh: Global markets enter today's session on a cautious footing following a sharp overnight sell-off in the US. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow extended their losing streak as investors booked profits in high-valuation technology and AI stocks.

Who is Vaishali Parekh

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19/12/25, SENSEX, NIFTY

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