..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 29/12/25, Market Strategy

Monday, December 29, 2025

29/12/25, Market Strategy

SENSEX

NIFTY50

NIFTY BANK

The Indian stock market closed the truncated week on a cautious note, with mild profit booking emerging near lifetime highs amid thin trading volumes and persistent FII outflows.

Despite the marginal decline, the broader market structure remains constructive, underpinned by strong domestic institutional participation, resilient earnings expectations, and stable macroeconomic conditions.

Overall, the week reflected healthy consolidation at elevated levels rather than any signs of trend exhaustion, helping the market build a steady base as it approaches the transition into the new calendar year.

Stock market today

Vaishali Parekh, Vice President of Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher, believes the Indian stock market sentiment has shaken as the Nifty 50 index ended lower for the second straight session on Friday. The crucial support for the 50-stock index is located at the 50-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) support, which is approximately 25,850.

Speaking on the outlook of the Nifty 50 index, Vaishali Parekh said, "The Nifty 50 index, once again, witnessed some exhaustion and slipped down with a gradual slide as the day progressed to extend the losses and closed near the 26000 zone with bias slightly shaken having the important and crucial support positioned near the 50-DEMA level at 25,850 zone, as mentioned earlier. On the upside, the index needs to clear the near-term hurdle at the 26,250 level to trigger a fresh upward move, with the next target expected around the long-term trendline zone at the 25,450 level."

On the outlook of the Bank Nifty index, Parekh said, "The Bank Nifty index witnessed a gradual slide with bias weakening and overall, with a sluggish rangebound movement continuing, the index is having a consolidation period with the support maintained strong near the 58,700 zone as mentioned earlier, and on the upside, desperately, a decisive breach above the 59,800 level is much needed to trigger for fresh upward move in the coming days."

Parekh stated that immediate support for the Nifty 50 index is located at 25,900, while the resistance level is at 26,300. The Bank Nifty is expected to have a daily range of 58,800 to 59,600.

Vaishali Parekh's stock recommendations today

Regarding stocks to buy today, Vaishali Parekh recommended three buy-or-sell stocks for Intraday trading: Mishra Dhatu, Madras Fertilizers, and Graphite India.

1] Mishra Dhatu Nigam Ltd: Buy at ₹318.60, Target ₹335, Stop Loss ₹312.

The stock has gained momentum recently, taking support near the ₹288 zone, and with a decent revival visible, has improved the bias, anticipating a further rise in the coming sessions. With the RSI turning up from the oversold zone, the stock has signalled a buy with much upside potential visible. One can buy the stock with a target of ₹335, while setting a stop-loss at ₹312.

2] Madras Fertilizers: Buy at ₹79.05, Target ₹84, Stop Loss ₹77.50.

The stock has recovered well after the slide, taking support near the ₹72 zone and gaining strength, moving just above the important 50-EMA level at ₹78.50 to improve the bias, and is expected to rise further. The RSI has recovered strongly from the oversold zone, signalling a buy and revealing much upside potential, which appears technically attractive. One can buy the stock with an upside target of ₹84, while maintaining a stop loss of ₹77.50.

3] Graphite India: Buy at ₹582.80, Target ₹612, Stop Loss ₹570.

The stock has indicated a revival from the important 200-period MA at the ₹529 level and has moved past the 50-DEMA level at the ₹555 zone to improve the bias, and further gains can be expected. With the RSI well-positioned and indicating strength, we can expect a further rise in the coming sessions to continue the positive move. One can buy the stock with a target of ₹612, setting a stop loss at ₹570.

MCX Gold rate today

MCX Gold futures closed firmly at ₹1,39,940 per 10 grams, extending the record rally as safe-haven demand and sustained investment flows remained strong. Price action continues to respect the rising channel, with every dip attracting fresh buying interest, underscoring the underlying trend's strength.

MCX Silver rate today

MCX Silver extended its sharp advance to ₹2,40,935 per kg, registering a steep rise of nearly ₹30,000 over the past week and scaling fresh lifetime highs in line with global cues and supply constraints. The broader rising channel continues to support the move, reinforcing the trend's strength.

source: Mint

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Monday, December 29, 2025

29/12/25, Market Strategy

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29/12/25, Market Strategy

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