..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 31/12/25, The Indian stock market benchmark indices - Sensex and Nifty 50 were likely to open flat on Wednesday, December 31, the final session of 2025 amid thin trade.

Wednesday, December 31, 2025

31/12/25, The Indian stock market benchmark indices - Sensex and Nifty 50 were likely to open flat on Wednesday, December 31, the final session of 2025 amid thin trade.

Most Asian markets including Japan, South Korea and Thailand, are closed today on account of new year's eve.

Early indications from the Gift Nifty also pointed to a positive opening for Indian equities. The Gift Nifty was trading around the 26,127 mark, up 24 points or 0.09% compared with the previous close of Nifty futures.

Indian stock markets ended nearly unchanged on Tuesday, December 30, as investors stayed on the sidelines amid the absence of fresh domestic cues and mixed global signals. The Sensex closed at 84,675.08, down 20 points or 0.02 percent, while the Nifty 50 slipped 3 points or 0.01 percent to 25,938.85.

"The domestic market remained volatile and ended the monthly expiry day flat, despite supportive global cues and selective value buying. A stronger rupee provided some respite, yet overall sentiment stayed cautious amid persistent FII outflows. Sector-wise, while auto stocks gained on robust IIP data, metal stocks gained due to higher metal prices enabling better realisations. Similarly, PSU banks advanced on improved asset quality. Looking ahead, the market is anticipated to stay sideways, awaiting more pronounced outcomes from US-India trade talks and the Q3 results calendar," Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited.

Here are the key things that changed since the stock market closed yesterday and may impact Sensex, Nifty 50 movement today:

Asian Markets

Asian stocks were on track for their strongest annual performance in six years, buoyed by interest-rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve and a wave of enthusiasm around artificial intelligence-linked companies.

The MSCI All Country World Index - among the broadest gauges of global equities - has climbed 21% this year with just one trading session left in 2025. Asian equities were also set for a third straight annual advance, marking their best performance since 2017. Several markets, including Japan and South Korea, have already closed for the year. Hang Seng futures fell 0.2% while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.2%.

Gift Nifty Today

The trends on Gift Nifty indicated a flat but positive start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading near 26,127 level, up 24 points or 0.09% from the Nifty futures' previous close.

Wall Street

Stocks fell slightly on Wall Street Tuesday as trading for 2025 nudges closer to the finish line. With just one trading day left before the year ends, most big investors have closed out their positions and volume has been thin. Every major index is headed for a double-digit gain for the year.

The S&P 500 fell 9.50 points, or 0.1%, to 6,894.24. Even with three straight days of small losses, the S&P 500 is on track for an annual gain of more than 17%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 94.87 points, or 0.2%, to 48,367.06. The Nasdaq composite fell 55.27 points, or 0.2%, to 23,419.08.

The biggest weights on the market remained technology companies, especially those focused on advancements for artificial intelligence.

US Fed Minutes

Minutes from the US Federal Reserve's December meeting showed policymakers agreed to cut interest rates only after a closely balanced debate over risks to the US economy. The Fed is scheduled to meet again on January 27-28, with markets currently expecting interest rates to remain unchanged.

Even some of those who supported the rate cut acknowledged "the decision was finely balanced or that they could have supported keeping the target range unchanged," given the different risks facing the U.S. economy, according to the minutes released on Tuesday.

US Dollar

The dollar advanced on Tuesday, maintaining gains after the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's December meeting, as investors attempt to parse the path of monetary policy. Year-end holidays have kept trading volume light, and analysts cautioned not to put too much weight on market moves over recent days, however. Still, the greenback is on track for its worst performance since 2017 with a fall of nearly 10%.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, rose 0.19% to 98.19, while the euro was down 0.18% at $1.1751 on the day - but up more than 13% on the year. Sterling weakened 0.3% to $1.3467 but is up nearly 8% against the dollar for 2025. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against rivals, is down 9.5% on the year, its steepest decline in eight years.

Gold and silver Prices

Gold and silver both traded lower on Wednesday, but were on track for unprecedented milestones as the year approaches its close, while other precious metals also made impressive gains.

Spot gold was down 0.3% at $4,334.20 per ounce as of 0032 GMT, after hitting a record high of $4,549.71 on Friday. U.S. gold futures for February delivery lost 1% to $4,346.50/oz. Silver fell 1.6% to $75.09 an ounce, while platinum and palladium also declined.

Bullion has staged a stellar rally in 2025, climbing 66% so far, in what looks to be its largest annual gain since 1979, the year of the Iranian revolution. Silver has gained 157% year-to-date, far outpacing gold, and set for its best year ever recorded. Palladium fell 1.6% to $1,584.67 per ounce, set to close the year up 74%, its best in nearly 15 years.

Oil prices

Oil is headed for its steepest annual decline since the pandemic year of 2020, as fears of a heavy supply surplus continued to weigh on prices and are expected to shape market sentiment into the new year.

US benchmark West Texas Intermediate traded below $58 a barrel, on course for a fifth straight monthly decline and down nearly 20% for the year. Brent crude for March settled above $61. In the near term, traders remained focused on an upcoming OPEC meeting, a bearish US industry report, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Crude prices have fallen sharply this year as supply expanded from OPEC and competing producers, while growth in global oil demand slowed.

source:Mint

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Wednesday, December 31, 2025

31/12/25, The Indian stock market benchmark indices - Sensex and Nifty 50 were likely to open flat on Wednesday, December 31, the final session of 2025 amid thin trade.

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Today's

31/12/25, Motilal Oswal Financial Services has come out with fresh 'Buy' calls on four listed companies, pointing to strong earnings visibility, improving profitability and steady growth over the next few years.

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