..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 16/12/25, DHARMESH SHAW OF ICICI SECURITIES RECOMMENDED STOCKS

Tuesday, December 16, 2025

16/12/25, DHARMESH SHAW OF ICICI SECURITIES RECOMMENDED STOCKS

Stocks to buy for long term: In the wake of the delay in the India-US trade deal, the Indian National Rupee (INR) has lost nearly 6% in YTD against the US Dollar (USD).

Such a fall in the Indian Rupee has failed to win back the positive sentiments of the FIIs, who have remained net sellers since July 2025. Among the key benchmark indices of the Indian stock market, the Nifty 50 index has risen close to 9%, the BSE Sensex has surged nearly 8%, whereas the Bank Nifty index has increased by over 15.50% in YTD. As both the US and the Indian governments are dropping highly positive hints to seal the trade deal soon, which, once completed, is expected to ignite a fresh bull trend on Dalal Street.

Stock market outlook

Dharmesh Shah, Vice President at ICICI Securities, believes the Indian stock market is likely to continue delivering stellar returns in the long term. The technical analyst believes that one should look at stocks that appear strong on the technical chart. Following the historical chart, Dharmesh Shah has a conviction that the Nifty 50 index will soon catch momentum, as it is currently around the 52-DEMA range, which has historically been a good indicator for buying. The ICICI Securities expert noted that the Bank Nifty index is nearly 5% below its 52-week moving average (DEMA), a level that has historically triggered value buying in banking stocks.

Nifty 50 target in 2026, 2023

Speaking on the outlook of the Nifty 50 index, Dharmesh Shah of ICICI Securities, said, "Based on the monthly chart pattern, the Nifty 50 index is set to head towards 30,000 in CY26 based on following observations - 1] Implicated target of Cup & Handle pattern, historically such breakouts garnered 40% in subsequent 12-18 months; 2] Upper band of rising channel: Price action since Nov 2021 is confined within rising channel; and 3] Rally post bull market corrections of 15%-20%: Historically that has garnered 40% gains over next 12-18 months," adding, "The long-term bullish thesis for the Nifty 50 index is intact the key index may touch 50,000 by 2030."

"On the weekly chart, historically, a rebound from 52-DEMA has always been a good omen for value buying. Buying near the 52-week DEMA (2,4700) offers a favourable risk-reward. Since 2008, the index witnessed an average return of 30% in the next 12 months with an average drawdown below the 52-week DEMA of 7%. As expected, the Nifty 50 index rebounded after a 17% correction, which augurs well for the move towards 28,600."

Bank Nifty outlook for 2026

Expecting the Bank Nifty index to touch 67,000 levels in 2026, Dharmesh Shah said, "Bank Nifty target of 67000 is based on the following observations - 1] Since 2022, 3-5% dips below the 52-week DEMA have triggered strong buying, leading to a median ~28% gain in the next 7-10 months; 2] Expect Bank Nifty to accelerate towards upper band of channel placed around 67000 by CY26; and 3] Breakout from ratio chart signifies outperformance of banking stocks."

Stocks to buy for the long term

To maximise this rally in the key benchmark indices, Dharmesh Shah of ICICI Securities recommended buying these seven stocks for the long term: Bajaj Finserv, Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOCL), LTIMindtree, Pidilite Industries, SRF, Can Fin Homes, and Jamna Auto Industries.

1] Bajaj Finserv: Buy in the ₹1960 to ₹2090 range, Target ₹2400, Support ₹1870;

2] IOCL: Buy in the ₹155 to ₹165 range, Target ₹190, Support ₹143;

3] LTIMindtree: Buy in the ₹5950 to ₹6380 range, Target ₹7370, Support ₹5500;

4] Pidilite Industries: Buy in ₹1400 to ₹1480, Target ₹1720, Support ₹1310;

5] SRF: Buy in the ₹2820 to ₹2970 range, Target ₹3480, Support ₹2548;

6] Can Fin Homes: Buy in ₹875 to ₹930, Target ₹1110, Support ₹790; and

7] Jamna Auto Industries: Buy in the ₹119 to ₹128 range, Target ₹152, Support ₹103.

source: MINT

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Tuesday, December 16, 2025

16/12/25, DHARMESH SHAW OF ICICI SECURITIES RECOMMENDED STOCKS

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