..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 18/01/26, Silver rate today: Following strength in the US Dollar, the trigger for the US Fed rate cut buzz after improved US unemployment data and easing in US-Iran tensions, metal prices came under selling pressure last week.

Sunday, January 18, 2026

18/01/26, Silver rate today: Following strength in the US Dollar, the trigger for the US Fed rate cut buzz after improved US unemployment data and easing in US-Iran tensions, metal prices came under selling pressure last week.

Among bullion, the silver price today is about 5.50% below its record high of $93.700 per ounce. This could become possible because the COMEX silver price finished at $88.537 per ounce, logging an intraday loss of around 4.15% on Friday. This has sparked speculation that the precious white metal is poised to make its top in the near term. The speculators betting on a top-out in the silver price rally believe that the US government is in a whole mood to use its age-old tool to control rising silver prices - by raising margin requirements. The US government has already done this once ahead of the New Year, when the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) raised margins on silver. If needed, they can increase the margin limit to contain volatility in the precious white metal.

Why is the silver price today under pressure?

On reasons that are dragging silver rates today under selling pressure, Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered commodity expert, said, "From the fundamental perspective, silver price remained under pressure on the weekend sessions as the COMEX silver price finished on Friday at $88.537 per ounce, nearly 5.50% below the record high of $93.700 per ounce. This retracement in silver prices from the record high can be attributed to the strong US Dollar, a trigger for the US Fed rate cut at next month's US Fed meeting, and improved US unemployment claim data last week. Apart from these fundamentals, some technical steps taken by the CME also ensured that the white metal doesn't get buying support at the higher levels."

Anuj Gupta said that CME has raised the margin for the silver futures January and February 2026 contracts to 45%, and this is expected to go further northward if the white metal doesn't top out soon.

Level to assume silver price topping out

"If the COMEX silver price ends below $82 per ounce level and doesn't regain that psychological $82 per ounce level in the next one to two sessions, then one can assume that the silver price has made its top. Similarly, on the MCX, if silver rate ends below ₹2,70,000 per kg levels, without breaking the current high, then you can assume that silver price has made its top and now it's gearing for the long-awaited profit-booking by institutions," said Amit Goel, Chief Global Strategist at Pace 360.

Gold-silver ratio

Advising silver investors to look at the gold-silver ratio, Amit Goel of Pace 360 said, "In the international market, the gold-silver ratio has slipped below 52, which signals buying in gold is more favourable than silver. In this gold-silver ratio, 80 is the pivot point, and from there, the ratio has come close to 50, which is beyond expectations. As most metals have stalled their rallies, I believe gold and silver may also top out soon. However, the gold price rally will top out first, as it has already shown signs of lethargy, trading in a tight, narrow range compared to silver. So, some steam in silver is still left, and it would be interesting to see whether it will be able to come close $100 levels to $100 levels or not."

"I am expecting that silver price rally may top out in the next month. The only curiosity left in the silver price rally is whether these rebounds are mere dead cat bounce or still have the potential to make a new record high, close to or above $100 levels," said Amit Goel of Pace 360.

Is a big crash coming after a Hunt Brothers-like rally?

Expecting a sharp decline in silver prices once the white metal tops out, Anuj Gupta said, "Silver price has a history of crashing heavily after a strong bull trend. We saw this happen in 1980, when the Hunt Brothers reportedly accumulated around one-third of the global silver reserves. This forced exchanges to increase margin money, which has already begun as CDX has raised margin money by 25%. This triggered short covering amid the liquidity squeeze, and silver prices fell from around $49.50 to around $11 per ounce. The same thing happened in 2011 when silver rates fell 75% after peaking at near $48 per ounce levels."

Echoing Anuj Gupta's views, Amit Goel of Pace 360 said, "After topping out, silver prices are expected to witness a sharp fall, and by the end of October 2026, we can expect at least 30% correction from the top out peak."

Silver rate today: Key levels to watch

On key levels regarding silver price today, Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money, said, "COMEX Silver has witnessed mild profit-booking over the last two sessions, forming a hanging man candle near higher levels, indicating temporary exhaustion rather than trend failure. Prices are consolidating around $87-$88 after correcting from $93+, while remaining well within a strong ascending channel. As long as silver holds above the $82-$83 support zone, the broader bullish structure remains intact, with a breakout above $92 likely to revive momentum toward $95-$100."

Similarly, on the MCX silver rate outlook, Ponmudi said, "MCX Silver continues to respect its bullish channel structure after consolidation. The ₹2,83,000 to ₹2,80,000 zone acts as strong support, while a sustained move above ₹2,95,000 could accelerate prices toward ₹3,05,000 to ₹3,20,000. Given the persistent supply gaps and rising industrial demand, the broader setup continues to favour aggressive dip-buying strategies."

source:Mint

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Sunday, January 18, 2026

18/01/26, Silver rate today: Following strength in the US Dollar, the trigger for the US Fed rate cut buzz after improved US unemployment data and easing in US-Iran tensions, metal prices came under selling pressure last week.

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