..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 20/02/26, Motilal & Oswal recommends

Tuesday, January 20, 2026

20/02/26, Motilal & Oswal recommends

Every trading day begins the same way. Screens light up. Numbers move fast. But for many investors, the biggest question stays unchanged - which stock should they buy and what counters can help maximise gains

In its latest report, leading domestic brokerage house, Motilal Oswal has identified three stocks where it sees strong upside potential, going as high as 53% in select counters. The recommendations cut across real estate, information technology, and infrastructure. According to the brokerage report, the recommendations are backed by strong execution, sector trends, and earnings visibility.

Let’s take a look at what Motilal Oswal is saying, and the reasoning behind each call.

Motilal Oswal on DLF

Motilal Oswal has given a 'Buy' rating on DLF, the real estate developer. The brokerage has set a target price of Rs 993,. This indicates an upside potential of 53% from current levels.

According to the brokerage report, "DLF's portfolio of luxury residential development has seen exceptional traction at launch, with Gurugram increasingly emerging as a hub for ultra-luxury housing where DLF enjoys a dominant position."

The brokerage noted that DLF exceeded its full-year sales guidance early. This is driven by strong demand for its ultra-luxury project, The Dahlias. "Total FY25 presales stood at Rs 21,200 crore," the report said, adding that early momentum has continued into the current financial year.

As per the brokerage report, DLF reported presales of Rs 15,800 crore in the first half of FY26, which is nearly 72% of its full-year guidance. Key launches such as Privana North in Gurugram and Westpark in Mumbai were sold out at launch.

Motilal Oswal also highlighted the company's strong land bank and upcoming launch pipeline. "Of the total 37 million square feet launch pipeline, the remaining 24 million square feet is planned for launch in the medium term," the report noted.

Motilal Oswal on Tech Mahindra

Motilal Oswal has also maintained a 'Buy' rating on Tech Mahindra, the information technology services company. The brokerage has set a target price of Rs 2,350. This implies an upside potential of 41%.

According to the brokerage report, Tech Mahindra reported third-quarter revenue of USD 1.6 billion, which grew 1.7% quarter-on-quarter in constant currency terms. Earnings before interest and tax margins improved to 13.1%, beating estimates.

"Adjusted profit after tax stood at Rs 1,300 crore," the report noted, even after accounting for a one-time impact related to labour code changes. Deal momentum remained strong, with new deal total contract value rising sharply.

Motilal Oswal pointed out that revenue growth is improving across several verticals, while early signs of recovery are visible in the communications segment.

As per the brokerage report, the company's restructuring efforts under new leadership are progressing steadily. Motilal Oswal expects margins to improve gradually, supported by operational efficiencies and better execution.

Motilal Oswal on JSW Infrastructure

JSW Infrastructure is another stock on Motilal Oswal's buy list. The brokerage has given a target price of Rs 360, indicating an upside potential of 40%.

According to the brokerage report, JSW Infrastructure's consolidated revenue grew 14% year-on-year in the third quarter. This is supported by higher cargo volumes across multiple ports. Total cargo handled stood at 31.7 million tonnes.

The brokerage noted that while some terminals saw lower volumes, growth at overseas ports and new terminals helped offset the impact. "The company's EBITDA grew 10% YoY to Rs 640 crore," the report said, even as margins faced pressure due to higher maintenance costs.

Motilal Oswal highlighted the company's expansion plans, noting that JSW Infrastructure is executing port and logistics projects with planned capital expenditure of Rs 55 billion in FY26.

As per the brokerage report, "JSW Infrastructure aims to scale port capacity to 400 million tonnes per annum and logistics revenue to Rs 8,000 by FY30." The brokerage expects volume, revenue, and earnings growth to accelerate as new assets become operational.

Conclusion

Overall, Motilal Oswal sees potential upside in stocks where earnings visibility is improving, but also flags that execution and sector-specific risks remain key.

Report by Financial Express

source: Dailyhunt

Disclaimer: This article provides factual analysis only and is not, and should not be construed as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell securities. Investors must conduct their own independent due diligence and seek advice from a SEBI-registered financial advisor.

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Tuesday, January 20, 2026

20/02/26, Motilal & Oswal recommends

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