..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 09/01/26, Motilal Oswal Stock Picks

Friday, January 9, 2026

09/01/26, Motilal Oswal Stock Picks

The markets are under selling pressure, but if you are looking for some bargain 'Buy's, Motilal Oswal has shared a list of stocks with 'Buy' recommendations.

latest stock picks based on recent company updates, management commentary and demand trends. The brokerage's analysis covers automobiles, building materials and consumer discretionary, with clear ratings, price targets and earnings expectations outlined in the report.

Motilal Oswal on Mahindra & Mahindra: ''Buy''

Motilal Oswal Financial Services has reiterated a 'Buy' rating on Mahindra & Mahindra with a target price of Rs 4,521, implying an upside of about 21% from the current market price. The brokerage said it recently test drove the newly launched XUV7XO and XEV 9S and believes the refreshed XUV7XO, with upgrades such as improved suspension, a three-screen display layout, enhanced driver assistance systems and upgraded electronics, can add around 2,000 to 3,000 incremental units to the monthly sales run rate of the XUV700.

On the electric side, the brokerage noted that while the XEV 9S offers additions such as semi-active suspension and an augmented reality heads-up display, its higher price range of Rs 19.9 lakh to Rs 29.4 lakh (ex-showroom) limits its volume contribution.

Motilal Oswal expects Mahindra & Mahindra to deliver a 14% compound annual growth in utility vehicle volumes between FY25 and FY28, with revenue, EBITDA and profit after tax estimated to grow at around 19%, 18% and 21% respectively over the same period. The target price is based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation using December 2027 estimates.

Motilal Oswal on APL Apollo Tubes: ''Buy''

Motilal Oswal Financial Services has maintained a 'Buy' rating on APL Apollo Tubes with a target price of Rs 2,260, indicating an upside of around 18%. The brokerage said the company continues to see steady volume growth, with sales reaching a record level in the December quarter, despite softness in the broader industry.

It noted that APL Apollo has guided for 10-15% volume growth in FY26, supported by capacity additions, improved utilisation at its Dubai plant and demand from infrastructure, solar and manufacturing segments.

Motilal Oswal also highlighted the company's Rs 1.5 lakh crore internally funded capital expenditure plan to expand capacity from 4.5 million tonnes to 6.8 million tonnes by FY28, and further to 10 million tonnes by FY30. Over FY25 to FY28, the brokerage expects revenue, EBITDA and profit after tax to grow at a compound annual rate of 14%, 29% and 33% respectively, according to the report.

Motilal Oswal on PN Gadgil Jewellers: 'Buy'

Motilal Oswal Financial Services has reiterated a 'Buy' rating on PN Gadgil Jewellers with a target price of Rs 825, which implies an upside of about 31%. The brokerage said the company's pre-quarter update for the December quarter showed strong performance, driven by festive and wedding season demand.

Total revenue rose 36% year-on-year to Rs 3.3 lakh crore, with the retail segment accounting for more than 80% of sales. Motilal Oswal noted record festive sales during Dhanteras and Diwali, strong same-store sales growth and rising contribution from studded jewellery and online channels.

The brokerage said the company added three stores during the quarter and plans to open 12 to 14 more outlets in the March quarter, keeping it on track to reach 78 to 80 stores by the end of FY26. Based on this, Motilal Oswal expects steady earnings growth over the next two years.

Conclusion

Motilal Oswal's ''Buy'' recommendations are backed by visible demand drivers, planned capacity additions and execution visibility across sectors. The brokerage believes these factors support its ratings and target prices for Mahindra & Mahindra, APL Apollo Tubes and PN Gadgil Jewellers over the medium-term.

Reference: Financial Express

Disclaimer: This article provides factual analysis only and is not, and should not be construed as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell securities. Investors must conduct their own independent due diligence and seek advice from a SEBI-registered financial advisor.

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Friday, January 9, 2026

09/01/26, Motilal Oswal Stock Picks

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Today's

14/01/26, The Indian benchmark indices, SENSEX and NIFTY50, closed in negative territory on Wednesday, January 14, for the second consecutive session, amid selling in IT and realty stocks.

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