..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 08/01/26, Share Market Outlook Report by MINT

Thursday, January 8, 2026

08/01/26, Share Market Outlook Report by MINT

Stock market outlook

Nifty 50

On Wednesday, the Nifty 50 closed flat at 26,140, indicating indecision at higher levels after the recent up move. The index continues to trade near its short-term averages, suggesting a pause in momentum, though selling pressure remains limited as key supports are being held.

Speaking on the Nifty 50 outlook, Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, said, " On the 1-hour chart, Nifty is consolidating in a narrow range, with repeated rejection near 26,200-26,250 and buying interest around 26,000-26,050. The 200-hour EMA near 26,040 is acting as a strong base.

Immediate resistance is placed at 26,200-26,250, while 26,000-26,050 remains a crucial support zone. Overall, the near-term bias remains cautious but stable, with consolidation likely to persist."

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty is trading around 59,950-60,000 and is consolidating after a sharp recent upmove, on January 7.

On the Bank Nifty outlook, he added, " The daily chart indicates a mild corrective phase within a downward-sloping channel, suggesting short-term profit booking rather than a trend reversal. The broader structure remains constructive as the index continues to trade above key medium-term averages.

On the 1-hour chart timeframe, the 20-day EMA near 60,000 is acting as immediate resistance, while the 50-day EMA around 59,825 provides near-term support, followed by 59,600.

On the 1-hour chart, the index is trading within a descending channel, reflecting short-term consolidation. Support is placed near 59,800-59,850, while 60,200-60,300 remains a key resistance zone. Holding above 59,600 keeps the structure intact, while a breakout above resistance could revive upside momentum."

Breakout stocks to buy today

Breakout stocks are those stocks that move past their established support or resistance levels. Breakouts often signal that a stock may be poised for a strong price move.

Amid ongoing market conditions, Sumeet Bagadia has recommended five breakout shares to buy today - Godrej Industries, Cyient, Delhivery, Hyundai Motor, and Kalyan Jewellers India.

1] Godrej Industries: Buy at ₹1054.20, target ₹1160, stop loss ₹1000

GODREJIND is trading near ₹1,054.20 and is showing early signs of a reversal after taking support at its 20-day EMA. A strong bullish candle indicates renewed buying interest. The stock has also broken above its falling trendline, signaling potential bullish continuation. It is trading above its 20-day and 50-day EMAs and is approaching the 200-day EMA, confirming improving momentum. Accumulation support lies near ₹1,030. Short-term traders may consider buying with a target of ₹1,160 and a stop loss at ₹1,000.

2] Cyient: Buy at ₹1176.90, target ₹1285, stop loss ₹1125

CYIENT is showing signs of strength after delivering a falling trendline breakout, supported by healthy volumes, indicating renewed buying interest. On the downside, immediate support is placed around ₹1,150, where accumulation activity is visible. RSI at 59.02 is taking support near lower levels and is trending upward, reflecting improving momentum. As the stock has confirmed a trendline breakout, short-term traders may consider buying at current levels with a stop loss of ₹1,125 and a target of ₹1,285, provided disciplined risk management is followed.

3] Delhivery: Buy at ₹422.25, target ₹460, stop loss ₹400

DELHIVERY is trading around ₹422.25 and has recently delivered a sideways range breakout, after which the stock is moving higher, indicating improving momentum. It has also given a strong close above the 200-Day EMA, reflecting strengthening price structure. RSI at 58.28 is rising from the recent oversold zone, supporting the bullish bias. As the breakout is confirmed, short-term traders may consider buying at current levels with a stop loss of ₹400 and a target of ₹460, maintaining disciplined risk management.

4] Hyundai Motor: Buy at ₹2362, target ₹2600, stop loss ₹2245

HYUNDAI is trading around ₹2,362 and is showing signs of strength after delivering a recent descending triangle breakout, indicating a bullish reversal. The stock is trading above its key 20, 50, 100 and 200 EMAs, reflecting a strong underlying trend. On the downside, it has taken solid support at the previous accumulation zone, where buying interest is visible. RSI at 57.62 is moving upward, supporting positive momentum. As the stock has confirmed a resistance breakout, short-term traders may consider buying at current levels with a stop loss of ₹2,245 and a target of ₹2,600, following disciplined risk management.

5] Kalyan Jewellers India: Buy at ₹520.75, target ₹570, stop loss ₹494

KALYANKJIL is trading around ₹520.75 and has rebounded strongly after finding solid support near the ₹460 zone, indicating strong demand at lower levels. The stock has given a decisive close above its key 20, 50 and 200 EMAs along with a previous swing high breakout, reflecting bullish strength. RSI at 67.50 shows rising momentum. Short-term traders may consider buying at current levels with a stop loss of ₹494 and a target of ₹570, following disciplined risk management.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Thursday, January 8, 2026

08/01/26, Share Market Outlook Report by MINT

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Today's

15/01/26, Despite external pressures such as the Trump tariff threat and geopolitical uncertainties affecting investor sentiments, the Indian stock market is eagerly looking forward to the third-quarter earnings season, bolstered by significant monetary and fiscal reforms.

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