..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 13/01/26, PostMarket REPORT

Tuesday, January 13, 2026

13/01/26, PostMarket REPORT

The benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty retreated from early highs on Tuesday as investors booked profits across key sectors amid persistent foreign fund outflows and selling in blue-chip stocks.

The Sensex settled 250.48 points or 0.3 percent lower at 83,627.69, while the broader Nifty declined to 25,732.30, down 57.95 points or 0.22 percent.

Markets had opened on a firm note after both indices ended about 0.4 percent higher on Monday, snapping a five-session losing streak that had pulled benchmarks down by nearly 2.5 percent. The recovery was supported by hopes of renewed momentum in India-US trade talks after US envoy said the two sides would discuss trade issues.

However, the early gains were short-lived as selling pressure emerged in auto, IT and pharma stocks.

L&T, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories and Cipla were among the key laggards in the Nifty50 pack, declining up to 2 percent, while ETERNAL and Oil & Natural Gas Corporation gained up to 3 percent.

Key factors behind market decline

1) Profit booking: Investors booked profits after the indices rose nearly 0.5 percent in early trade. On Monday, both Sensex and Nifty had recovered nearly 1.2 percent from their intraday lows following comments by US envoy Sergio Gor, which led to the unwinding of some bearish positions.

2) Persistent FII selling: Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained net sellers, offloading shares worth Rs 3,638.40 crore on Monday. This marked the sixth straight session of net selling after a brief pause on January 2, adding pressure on domestic equities due to sustained capital outflows.

3) Rupee decline: The rupee weakened by 5 paise to 90.22 against the US dollar in early trade amid a stronger greenback, higher crude oil prices and continuous foreign fund outflows. A weaker rupee tends to weigh on market sentiment, especially for import-dependent sectors.

4) Trump announces new tariffs: US President Donald Trump announced that any country "doing business" with Iran would face a 25 percent tariff on its trade with Washington. The move could affect major trading partners of Iran such as India, China and the UAE, raising concerns over trade flows.

Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, said "Geopolitical developments and President Trump's comments and actions will continue to influence markets. Trump's weaponisation of tariffs have already impacted global trade and particularly countries which have been targeted with penal tariffs. Trump's latest declaration that the US will impose 25% tariffs on countries doing trade with Iran clearly sends out the message that this policy of weaponisation of tariffs will continue."

5) Nifty expiry: Tuesday is also the weeklyh expiry day for Nifty derivatives contracts, which typically leads to higher volatility as traders roll over or square off positions.

6) Muted IT results: IT stocks came under pressure after Tata Consultancy Services reported a 13.91 percent drop in December quarter profit to Rs 10,657 crore, mainly due to a one-time impact of new labour codes. HCL Technologies posted an 11.2 percent decline in consolidated net profit to Rs 4,076 crore.

Shares of HCL Technologies fell over 2% as brokerage remained cautious. HSBC and CLSA reiterated 'Hold' ratings, with CLSA flagging the risk of sequentially negative growth in the March quarter due to seasonal weakness. TCS also declined on subdued demand Outlook. despite stable margins.

7) Higher crude prices: Brent crude rose 0.3 percent to USD 64.06 per barrel. Rising oil prices tend to pressure India's trade balance and inflation outlook, affecting market sentiment.

8) Weak global cues: In Asia market, Shanghai's SSE Composite was trading marginally lower. US futures were down up to 0.3 percent, indicating a weak start for Wall Street.

Technical view

Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments, said retracement studies indicate 25,900 as the nearest resistance for Nifty, with scope for a move towards 26,020 if momentum holds. However, a failure to sustain above 25,775 could lead to a slide towards the 25,715–25,620 zone, though a sharper fall appears less likely in the near term.

source: Network18

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts are their own and not ours. We advises readers to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Tuesday, January 13, 2026

13/01/26, PostMarket REPORT

Key factors behind market decline

Technical view

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Today's

15/01/26, Despite external pressures such as the Trump tariff threat and geopolitical uncertainties affecting investor sentiments, the Indian stock market is eagerly looking forward to the third-quarter earnings season, bolstered by significant monetary and fiscal reforms.

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