..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 19/01/26, PostMarket REPORT

Monday, January 19, 2026

19/01/26, PostMarket REPORT

The benchmark equity indices SENSEX and NIFTY were trading 0.7% lower on January 19 morning amid broad-based selling as renewed global trade concerns and a host of other factors weighed on investor sentiment.

The Sensex settled 324.17 points or 0.39 percent lower at 83,246.18, while the broader Nifty declined to 25,585.50, down 108.85 points or 0.42 percent. Among top losers on Nifty were Wipro, Tata Motors PV, ICICI Bank, Max Healthcare.

Key factors behind market decline

1) Negative global cues: Global markets are facing volatility after President Donald Trump vowed to slap tariffs on eight European nations until the US is allowed to buy Greenland, injecting fresh trade uncertainty as stocks slid and the dollar broadly weakened.

Trump said he would impose an additional 10% import tariff from February 1 on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Britain, which will rise to 25 percent on June 1 if no deal is reached.

In European markets, EUROSTOXX 50 futures and DAX futures both fell 1.1%. Japan's Nikkei dropped 1% as risk-off sentiment prevailed.

US markets are closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, which means a delayed reaction on Wall Street. US stock futures were 0.7 percent lower in early Asian hours.

The implications for the dollar were less clear, although the greenback was broadly lower on Monday. It remains a safe haven, but could also feel the impact of Washington being at the centre of geopolitical ruptures, as it did last April.

The dollar weakness lifted the safe haven yen and Swiss Franc. Bitcoin, a liquid proxy for risk, fell nearly 3% to $92,602.64.

Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, said "It's going to be volatile days ahead in the near-term for stock markets globally with big geopolitical and geoeconomic developments impacting markets. We don't know now how President Trump's disruptive policies are going to impact international trade and global economic growth. How the European nations are going to react to President Trump's latest Greenland tariffs remains to be seen. If Trump walks his talk and imposes 10% tariffs on the eight European countries on February 1st and follows it up by raising the tariffs to 25% from June 1st onwards, retaliation by the European bloc is almost certain. In such a scenario a trade war will breakout impacting global trade and growth. The likely impact of such a development on the market will be negative. It is also likely that Trump chickens out as has happened in the past."

2) Fed chair speculation: Sentiment was also affected after Trump said Kevin Hassett may not become the next Chair of the US Federal Reserve and could continue in his current role as Director of the White House National Economic Council. Hassett is considered relatively supportive of policy easing, and uncertainty over his appointment led to some moderation in expectations around aggressive rate cuts in 2026, influencing global market sentiment.

3) India VIX rises: The volatility index, India VIX, rose more than 5 percent to 11.98, indicating increased caution among investors.

4) Persistent FII selling: The foreign institutinal investors remaind seller for the 9th straight session on Friday, selling Rs 4,346.13 crore.

"The sustained selling by FIIs continued for the week ending on 16th January. The total FII selling for January up to 16th stood at Rs 22529 crores. This month FIIs were sellers on all days except one. The underperformance of India vis-a-vis other major markets is continuing in early 2026 also," added Vijayakumar.

5) Weak Q3 results: Sluggish December quarter results also weighed on market sentiment as IT index, which fell 1 percent, dragged by Wipro as it lost 7.2 percent.

The country's fourth-largest IT services firm forecast weaker-than-expected revenue growth for the ongoing March quarter after deal booking fell to a six-quarter low in the December period.

"Mixed earnings from frontline stocks have kept markets in a cautious zone, caught in a continued tug of war between cautious bears and selective buying by bulls," Prashanth Tapse, senior vice president of research at Mehta Equities told Reuters.

ICICI Bank shares fell nearly 3 percent post-Q3 results. ICICI Bank missed expectations on higher provisions for bad loans, reported Reuters.

Technical analysis

The Nifty remained volatile over the past week, recording a high of 25,899 and a low of 25,473 before closing marginally higher at 25,694, reflecting ongoing market indecision. The formation of a spinning top on the weekly chart highlights uncertainty near higher levels, with resistance seen around the 50-day EMA. On the daily chart, the Nifty closed below the 25,700 mark, indicating short-term weakness. While the index continues to trade below its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, it remains above the 200-day EMA, thereby keeping the medium-term bias constructive. Immediate resistance is placed at 25,875, followed by 26,000 and 26,100, while key support levels are seen at 25,600 and 25,450.

Report by Parash Bist for Network18, With inputs from Reuters

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts are their own. We advise readers to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Monday, January 19, 2026

19/01/26, PostMarket REPORT

Key factors behind market decline

Technical analysis

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