..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 07/02/26, The Financial Express Report on Recommend Stocks by Brokerage Firms

Saturday, February 7, 2026

07/02/26, The Financial Express Report on Recommend Stocks by Brokerage Firms

The Indian markets surged by over 3% this week. While the Budget and the STT hike on F&O weighed on sentiment, Trump's announcement to cut tariffs on India kicked off a smart rally midweek.

Apart from that, the RBI rate decision, recent newsflow and the quarterly earnings impacted market movement.

This week, several top research houses, including Jefferies, Motilal Oswal, Nuvama Wealth Management, JM Financial, and Axis Securities, shared their latest recommendations, and we shortlisted 10 stocks across sectors.

Jefferies on Reliance Industries

Jefferies has reiterated a 'Buy' call on Reliance Industries. The brokerage has set a target price of Rs 1,820, implying an upside of about 27%.

As per the brokerage report, the stock has underperformed the Nifty index by nearly 7% year-to-date. This is largely due to weak performance in the retail business during the December 2025 quarter.

The brokerage pointed out that the current market price is factoring in an enterprise value of only about $40 billion for the retail and FMCG businesses combined, which it sees as overly pessimistic. This is significantly lower than earlier private equity valuations.

JM Financial on Devyani International

JM Financial has maintained a 'Buy' rating on Devyani International. The brokerage has set a target price of Rs 175 on the stock, which implies an upside of 42% from the current market price.

Devyani International is putting a new leadership team in place before the merger gets consummated, after which it will announce the new strategic roadmap. Given that the road to recovery could be a bit longer than expected, the brokerage has cut FY26-FY28 EBITDA estimates by 7-9%.

The brokerage believes management efforts are gradually starting to bear fruit, and benefits could accelerate once overall demand recovery sets in.

Motilal Oswal on Trent

Motilal Oswal has reiterated 'Buy' on Trent and kept the target price unchanged at Rs 5,200 per share. This implies nearly 30% upside from current levels. The brokerage house pointed out that "strong cost discipline, especially RFID-led manpower optimisation and variable cost structure, drove 90 bps expansion.

That said, Trent's growth rate has decelerated materially over the last few quarters due to weak like-for-like sales amid a subdued demand environment and self-cannibalisation of existing stores to gather higher revenue in select micro-markets.

Axis Securities on Bajaj Finance

Axis Securities maintained a 'Buy' call on Bajaj Finance. The expectations are that the company will continue its growth trajectory, reporting a consistent 24-25% CAGR AUM growth over the medium term, with growth resuming from FY27 onwards, with contribution from the core existing products and a further push from the scale-up of the new products

The brokerage sees a target price of Rs 1,200 on Bajaj Finance, an upside of 33% from the current market price.

JM Financial on Keystone Realtors

JM Financial maintained its 'Buy' rating on Keystone Realtors but lowered its target price to Rs 750 after moderating assumptions on operating cash flow margins. The revised target implies an upside of about 52%, based on the brokerage's calculations.

JM Financial said Keystone Realtors reported Q3FY26 pre-sales of Rs 840 crore, broadly flat year-on-year but up 8% sequentially, led by the Emerging Premium segment, which accounted for about one-third of total pre-sales. Collections remained muted during the quarter, but year-to-date collections rose 12% year-on-year to Rs 1,770 crore, supporting visibility on full-year guidance.

Nuvama on AWL Agribusiness

Nuvama has maintained a 'Buy' rating on AWL Agri Business with a target price of Rs 360, implying an upside of about 69% based on the price cited in the report.

According to Nuvama, "AWL Agri Business posted Q3FY26 revenue growth of 10.3% YoY, ahead of our/Street estimates led by strong growth in edible oil segment (volume/value grew 8%/12% YoY)." The brokerage noted that overall volumes rose 3% YoY, higher than its initial estimate.

Jefferies on ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company

Jefferies remains constructive on brokers, asset managers and exchanges, citing the steady shift of household savings into financial assets. Indian mutual fund assets under management have reached nearly $900 billion.

Jefferies has initiated coverage on ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company with a 'Buy' rating and a target price of Rs 3,800. This implies upside of 23%. The brokerage expects assets under management and earnings to grow at a healthy pace over the next few years.

Nuvama on Aditya Birla Lifestyle Brands

Nuvama has raised its target price on Aditya Birla Lifestyle Brands to Rs 179, indicating an upside of about 58%.

The brokerage said, "ABLBL reported 9.6% YoY revenue growth, driven by stable growth of 9% YoY in Lifestyle brands and strong 13% YoY growth in emerging brands." Wholesale revenue rose 21% YoY, supported by strong secondary sales.

Nuvama said management has resumed store expansion and guided for higher capital spending. "Management has guided for capex of Rs 33 crore in FY26 and plans to add 150 EBOs," the report stated, with a longer-term goal of 12-15% revenue CAGR.

JM Financial on Emcure Pharmaceuticals

JM Financial raised the target price on Emcure Pharmaceuticals to Rs 1,932 from Rs 1,695. The new price target sees potential of 28.3% upside in the next 12 months. The target price was raised after the company delivered strong Q3FY26 results.

Its Q3 revenue rose 20% YoY while profits jumped 50% YoY. Growth was driven mainly by the international segments. The segment grew 25% YoY, led by strong performance in Europe and emerging markets, while Canada grew at a slower 13%.

Axis Securities on HDFC Bank

Axis Securities has maintained its Buy rating on HDFC Bank, with a target price of Rs 1,190, which means it sees the stock to rise 30% in the coming 12 months.
HDFC Bank has been consistently performing on its guidance in its endeavour to revert to its pre-merger levels across metrics, and its execution capabilities remain strong. India's largest private lender will take constructive steps to strengthen its retail-focused deposit franchise with an emphasis on mobilising CASA Deposits.

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Saturday, February 7, 2026

07/02/26, The Financial Express Report on Recommend Stocks by Brokerage Firms

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08/02/26, The Wall Street major Morgan Stanley has said the country's hawkish macro environment after the pandemic is now easing, with stock markets set for a re-rating.

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