..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 25/02/26 , Market Setup

Wednesday, February 25, 2026

25/02/26 , Market Setup

Indian equity markets are expected to remain volatile on Wednesday, February 25, after benchmark indices snapped their two-session winning streak on monthly derivatives expiry, weighed down by sharp losses in IT stocks and cautious global cues.

Stock Market Outlook Today, 25 February 2026: Sensex, Nifty Prediction Today

On February 24, coinciding with the monthly Nifty F&O expiry, markets ended sharply lower amid concerns over AI-led disruption in the IT sector. Heavy selling pressure dragged the Nifty below the 25,450 mark during the session, after it opened weak below 25,650 and slipped further to an intraday low near 25,350.

By the close, the Sensex plunged 1,068.74 points (1.28%) to 82,225.92, while the Nifty fell 288.35 points (1.12%) to settle at 25,424.65. Broader markets also remained under pressure, with the Nifty Midcap index easing 0.3 percent and the Smallcap index declining 0.55 percent, reflecting cautious sentiment beyond frontline stocks.

Sectorally, IT stocks were the worst hit, tumbling more than 4 percent as investors reassessed long-term growth prospects amid rapid AI adoption. Realty stocks also declined over 2 percent. In contrast, metals, pharma, PSU banks, oil & gas and energy stocks outperformed the broader market, posting modest gains of 0.3 to 1 percent and offering some downside support.

Eurozone CPI in Focus Today: Key Factor To Watch

"Looking ahead, markets are expected to remain volatile within a broader range, driven by mixed global and domestic cues," Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. noted, adding that investors will closely track Eurozone CPI today after US consumer confidence data for further direction.

Nifty Prediction Today, 25 February 2026

From a technical perspective, analysts at Bajaj Broking highlighted that the Nifty's recent decline has weakened near-term momentum. "The index formed a bearish candle with a lower high and lower low as it gave up its last two sessions' gains, signaling selling pressure on the monthly expiry session," they said.

According to Bajaj Broking, the Nifty has been consolidating in a 25,350-25,900 range over the past eight sessions, and a decisive breakout or breakdown from this zone will determine the next directional trend. A breach below 25,327 could open further downside towards the 200-day EMA and the gap area around 25,100-25,200, while immediate resistance remains near 25,642. Failure to move above this level may keep the short-term bias corrective.

Bank Nifty Outlook For February 25, 2026

Meanwhile, the outlook for Bank Nifty remains relatively constructive despite near-term consolidation. "Bank Nifty formed a small bearish candle with a small real body and a long lower shadow, signaling consolidation amid stock-specific action," Bajaj Broking said, noting continued outperformance in PSU banking stocks.

Analysts believe the bias for Bank Nifty remains positive, with dips likely to attract buying interest. Key short-term support is seen in the 60,500-60,200 zone, while the index is expected to trade within a 60,000-61,750 range in the near term. A decisive move beyond this band could trigger fresh directional momentum, though volatility is expected to stay elevated amid uncertain global cues.

Overall, experts suggest that while broader market sentiment remains cautious, selective buying, sector rotation and global data cues will play a crucial role in shaping Sensex and Nifty movements on Wednesday, February 25.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations expressed are solely those of the individual analysts or entities and do not reflect the views of Goodreturns.in or Greynium Information Technologies Private Limited (together referred as "we"). We do not guarantee, endorse or take responsibility for the accuracy, completeness or reliability of any content, nor do we provide any investment advice or solicit the purchase or sale of securities. All information is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should be independently verified from licensed financial advisors before making any investment decisions.

Report by Harshika Yadav of goodreturns.in

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Wednesday, February 25, 2026

25/02/26 , Market Setup

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Today's

26/02/26, Nvidia is propelling the U.S. stock market upward on Wednesday, as investors anticipate the company's forthcoming profit report scheduled for release after trading hours.

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