09/02/26, Market Strategy

 

The Nifty 50 maintained its bullish gap on a closing basis despite consolidation, while the Bank Nifty sustained above the falling support trendline for the last four days. Both indices traded well above all key moving averages, while the announcement of the interim trade agreement signalled a positive market mood. Hence, experts expect the Nifty to march toward the 25,800–26,000 zone, with crucial support placed at 25,500–25,450, below which bears may come into strong action. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty needs to give a decisive close above 60,400, as above this level a move toward 61,000 and then the record high cannot be ruled out. However, 59,500 can act as immediate key support.

On February 6, the Nifty 50 rose 51 points (0.2 percent) to 25,694, while the Bank Nifty advanced 57 points to 60,121. However, market breadth remained weak, as about 1,673 shares were under pressure against 1,207 shares that gained on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Osho Krishan, Chief Manager - Technical & Derivative Research at Angel One

The entire week was a roller-coaster ride, not only for the benchmark index but for the broader equity market. Amid all the dynamic developments, the Nifty 50 index managed to stay above all its significant EMAs on the daily chart, indicating a bullish outlook. On the levels front, 25,500–25,440, which aligns with the 20-DEMA and the high established on Budget Day, is anticipated to serve as a robust support zone against any potential short-term declines.

Furthermore, the critical support level at 25,250, represented by the 200-DSMA, is expected to catalyse bullish momentum should extended profit-taking occur in the coming week. On the flipside, the resistance zone of 25,800–25,850 is deemed significant, followed by a formidable barrier at the 26,000 mark. A move above this level is expected to lead to substantial bullish traction in the index.

As we progress into the current week, market participants are expected to stabilise with a bullish outlook, reflecting on the events that transpired in the preceding week. Therefore, declines in market prices are likely to provide favourable opportunities for buyers. Furthermore, amid the quarterly earnings season, traders should focus on sectors where strong movements are anticipated, as these may yield opportunities for significant outperformance.

Key Resistance: 25,800, 26,000

Key Support: 25,500, 25,250

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips around 25,550–25,500, with a stop-loss at 25,250, and book profits near 25,800–25,850.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

Nifty registered a weekly gain of 869 points. On the weekly chart, the index formed a strong bullish candle with a long upper shadow, highlighting profit booking near the all-time high amid elevated volatility driven by key events such as the Union Budget, the US–India trade deal, and the RBI monetary policy. Following the sharp gap-up triggered by the US–India trade deal, the index is witnessing some profit booking.

On an immediate basis, 25,445 (20-day SMA) is likely to act as initial support, followed by a critical support zone at 25,253–25,108, which marks a confluence of the 200-day SMA and the lower band of the bullish gap area. Holding this zone is crucial for the continuation of positive momentum.

On the upside, 26,000–26,350 is expected to act as key resistance, with immediate resistance placed at 25,800. Momentum remains constructive, with the weekly RSI at a bullish crossover, indicating a continued upside bias.

Key Resistance: 25,800, 26,000

Key Support: 25,500, 25,350

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures around 25,600 with a stop-loss of 25,500, targeting 24,900–24,800.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Osho Krishan, Chief Manager - Technical & Derivative Research at Angel One

Bank Nifty managed to hold firm at elevated levels and eventually wrapped up the week at the 60,120 mark, registering strong gains of 2.92 percent. Despite the sharp move witnessed mid-week, the technical structure remains largely unchanged, as prices continue to stay confined within the prior trading range. That said, the underlying sentiment favours the bulls.

Going forward, the outlook suggests that the ongoing consolidation may persist unless a convincing breakout above the 60,400 level materialises. The probability of an upside breakout remains elevated, given that trends across all timeframes remain firmly aligned to the upside.

Participants should closely monitor for such a breakout to gauge the next directional move. In terms of levels, the 59,500–59,200 band, aligning with the 20- and 50-DEMA, acts as an immediate support zone, followed by a stronger support at the bullish gap area of 58,600–58,500. On the flip side, while there are no clearly defined overhead resistances yet, the recent highs around the 61,500–61,700 zone are likely to cap any meaningful upside in the near term, with the 60,300–60,400 band acting as immediate resistance.

Key Resistance: 60,400, 61,500

Key Support: 59,500, 58,600

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips around 59,500–59,200, for a potential target of 60,400, with a stop-loss of 58,800.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

Following the announcement of the US–India trade deal, the Bank Nifty surged to a record high of 61,675 but witnessed profit booking, pulling the index back into a broader consolidation zone of 60,500–58,000. On the weekly chart, the index formed a bullish candle with a long upper shadow, highlighting selling pressure at higher levels despite an underlying positive trend.

Technically, a decisive close above 60,500 could open the upside toward 60,750–61,500. On the downside, a break below 60,000 may trigger selling pressure, dragging Bank Nifty toward 59,466 (20-day SMA) and then 59,000. For the week ahead, the index is expected to trade within the 59,000–61,500 range, with a positive bias above 60,500. Momentum indicators remain supportive, with the weekly RSI on the verge of crossing above its reference line, indicating that the positive bias may persist.

Key Resistance: 60,500, 60,800

Key Support: 59,900, 59,600

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures around 59,900 with a stop-loss of 59,650, targeting 60,500–60,800.

source: Network18 

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts are their own and not of us. We advises readers to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.