..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 28/05/26, Market Prediction for 29/05/26

Thursday, May 28, 2026

28/05/26, Market Prediction for 29/05/26

After two consecutive sessions of losses and heightened volatility, the stock market is expected to open Friday's trade on a cautious yet stable note, with technical analysts predicting range-bound movement in the 30-share Sensex amid mixed global cues, persistent foreign fund outflows, profit booking at higher levels and the ongoing geopolitical tensions in West Asia.

Sensex at close on Wednesday, May 27

In a volatile trade on Wednesday, the 30-share BSE Sensex declined 141.90 points, or 0.19 per cent, to settle at 75,867.80, with 20 of its constituents ending higher and 10 with losses. During the day, it hit a high of 76,224.68 and a low of 75,748.21, gyrating 476.47 points.

The 50-share NSE Nifty skidded 6.55 points, or 0.03 per cent, to end at 23,907.15. Sensex had dropped by 479.26 points and Nifty by 118 points on Tuesday.

Financials, oil & gas, IT and private banking shares were the major drag while energy, metals, and auto shares advanced, capping the downside.

Among 30 Sensex pack, HDFC Bank fell the most by 2.63 per cent. Infosys, ITC, Hindustan Unilever, Reliance Industries and ICICI Bank were also among the major laggards. Power Grid, Eternal, NTPC and Tata Steel were the major gainers.

Sensex Prediction for Friday, May 29

Market experts maintain a cautiously positive but highly selective outlook for the near term, keeping a sharp eye on crucial defensive thresholds.

Sensex Prediction for Friday, May 29 by Hitesh Tailor

Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst - Technical Research at Choice Broking, said, "On 27th May 2026, the BSE Sensex closed at 75,867.80, declining by -141.90 points (-0.19%), as profit booking at higher levels restricted further upside momentum. The index opened at 75,939.86 and initially witnessed buying interest, touching an intraday high of 76,224.68 during the early session."

However, the market failed to sustain at higher levels and gradually witnessed selling pressure through the latter half of the session. The Sensex slipped to an intraday low of 75,748.21 before settling at 75,867.80, indicating a cautious undertone near resistance zones, he stated.

Sector-wise, Power, Capital Goods, Utilities, Metal, Industrials, Auto, Consumer Discretionary, Telecommunication, and Consumer Durables witnessed strong buying interest and outperformed during the session. On the other hand, Top 10 Banks, Private Banks, Financial Services, BANKEX, Information Technology, Focused IT, Oil & Gas, FMCG, and Energy sectors witnessed mild weakness and profit booking. Banking and IT-related indices remained under pressure, while broader market participation stayed selective, Tailor added.

Technically, Tailor said the Sensex continued to face resistance near the 76,200-76,400 zone, where profit booking emerged once again. "Although the index managed to hold above the 75,700 zone, failure to sustain higher levels suggests cautious sentiment in the short term. Immediate support is now placed around 75,000-75,200, while resistance is seen near 76,400-76,500," he said.

"Sustaining above support levels may keep the broader structure stable, while a decisive breakout above resistance could trigger fresh upside momentum in upcoming sessions," the analyst cautioned.

For Friday's trading session, Tailor stated, "The overall market bias remains cautiously positive as the index continues to trade above key support levels despite intermittent profit booking near higher zones. However, lack of sustained momentum near resistance levels indicates that traders may remain selective in the near term. As long as Sensex sustains above the 75,000-75,200 support zone, the broader undertone may remain stable with stock-specific trading opportunities."

Broader markers on Wednesday, May 27

Broader markets closed on a mixed note with the BSE SmallCap Select index declining by 0.29 per cent and MidCap Select index gaining 0.52 per cent.

Among sectoral indices, Top 10 Banks edged lower by 0.90 per cent, Private Banks index dropped 0.83 per cent, Financial Services by 0.64 per cent, Bankex by 0.48 per cent, Focused IT by 0.26 per cent and IT by 0.26 per cent.

Capital Goods jumped 3.21 per cent, followed by Utilities (2.39 per cent), Power (3.27 per cent), Metal (1.74 per cent), Auto (1.33 per cent), Telecommunication (1.02 per cent) and Consumer Discretionary (1.01 per cent).

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 2,407.87 crore on Tuesday, according to exchange data.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, dropped 3.24 per cent to USD 96.35 per barrel.

Stock and forex markets were closed on Thursday, May 28 for Bakri Eid.

Report by EconomicTimes

(Disclaimer: The above article is meant for informational purposes only, and should not be considered as any investment advice. We suggest readers/investors to consult their financial advisors before making any money-related decisions.)

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Thursday, May 28, 2026

28/05/26, Market Prediction for 29/05/26

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