22/06/26, Market Strategy for Today

Considering that the trend remains positive, backed by healthy technical and momentum indicators, the market is expected to bounce back after a day of profit booking and consolidation. However, the sustainability of the uptrend will be the key factor to watch. The Nifty 50 needs to defend the psychological 24,000 level for a potential upward move toward 24,150–24,200, followed by 24,500. However, if it falls below 24,000, the index may decline toward 23,800, which remains a crucial support level. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty is likely to face resistance at 58,000, a critical level for further upside toward 58,800. On the downside, immediate support is placed at 57,200, followed by 56,800, according to experts.

On June 19, the Nifty 50 fell 155 points (0.64%) to close at 24,013, while the Bank Nifty slipped 278 points (0.48%) to 57,686. Market breadth was slightly weak, with about 1,533 shares declining against 1,467 advancing shares on the National Stock Exchange (NSE).

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Hitesh Rathi, Technical Analyst (Equity & Derivatives) at Angel One

The weakness witnessed on the final trading session, coupled with the inability of buyers to sustain levels above 24,100 on a weekly closing basis, has made the near-term technical structure slightly uncertain. The formation of a Doji candlestick on the weekly chart reflects indecision between bulls and bears, suggesting that a clearer directional cue is required before taking aggressive positions.

The index continues to face strong overhead resistance, with the first hurdle emerging from a downward-sloping trendline connecting the swing highs of April and May, which also coincides with the 100 DEMA. On Point & Figure charts as well, the presence of a 45-degree falling trendline in the same region further highlights the importance of the 24,050–24,150 resistance zone.

Going forward, a cautious approach remains warranted. Unless Nifty delivers a convincing close above the 24,150 mark, it would be prudent to avoid aggressive positioning and instead look for opportunities near strong support zones. In terms of levels, the immediate support is placed near 23,900, followed by a stronger support band in the 23,710–23,620 zone. On the upside, the previous session high near 24,200 acts as the immediate resistance, followed by a stronger hurdle in the 24,450–24,500 zone.

Key Resistance: 24,180, 24,450

Key Support: 23,900, 23,650

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips around 23,900, with a stop-loss of 23,800 and book profits near the 24,150-24,200 zone.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head of Research) at Axis Securities

Nifty 50 saw a 390 points gains on a weekly basis. On the weekly chart, the index has formed a small bullish candle with shadows on both sides, reflecting heightened volatility and a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The index also failed to close above the upper band of the short-term falling channel, which has been in place since April 21, keeping the breakout confirmation pending.

Technically, a decisive breakout above the previous week's high of 24,189 could trigger fresh buying momentum and propel the index towards 24,457, where the 200-day EMA is placed, followed by the 25,000 level.

On the downside, a break below the previous week's low of 23,818 may invite profit booking, dragging the index towards the bullish gap support near 23,645, with further downside potential towards the 23,500 zone. The weekly RSI and Stochastic have both turned positive and are above their respective reference lines, indicating a positive bias.

Key Resistance: 24,150, 24,300

Key Support: 23,900, 23,800

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures around 23,950, with a stop-loss of 23,800, and target of 24,150-24,250.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head of Research) at Axis Securities

Bank Nifty closed the last week with 871 points gains. On the weekly chart, the index has formed a small bearish candle with shadows on both sides, suggesting a breather after the recent sharp rally. However, Bank Nifty continues to hold above its 200-day SMA at 57,042, reflecting underlying strength and maintaining a positive bias.

Technically, a decisive move above 58,000 could trigger fresh buying momentum and propel the index towards the 58,500–59,000 zone. Conversely, a break below 57,100 may invite profit booking, dragging the index towards the 56,800–56,400 support zone.

For the week ahead, we expect Bank Nifty to trade in the 59,000–56,400 range with a positive bias . Momentum indicators remain supportive, with both the daily and weekly RSI trending higher and holding above their respective reference lines, indicating strengthening momentum and reinforcing the constructive outlook.

Key Resistance: 57,900, 58,200

Key Support: 57,400, 57,250

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures around 57,450 with a stop-loss of 57,250, targetting 57,850-58,000.

Hitesh Rathi, Technical Analyst (Equity & Derivatives) at Angel One

Although the banking index posted decent gains for the week, it largely appeared to be a breather phase for the bulls when compared to the strong rally of over 4 percent witnessed during the previous week. Most of the gains were accrued through the gap-up opening at the start of the week, following which prices traded with a series of small-bodied candles on the daily chart. This has translated into a classical Doji formation on the weekly chart, which typically indicates indecision.

However, despite the formation, we continue to maintain a positive bias considering the strength of the broader technical structure. During the week, Bank Nifty closed above the April swing high of 57,456, thereby confirming a major Higher Top–Higher Bottom formation on the daily chart. In addition, prices have also managed to sustain above the long-term 200DSMA, which had acted as a formidable resistance during the April rally. This development indicates strengthening bullishness across multiple timeframes.

The moving average structure has also turned favourable. During the week, the index witnessed a bullish crossover between the 20DEMA and 50DEMA, with the 20DEMA also approaching a crossover above the 89DEMA. These developments further reinforce the positive undertone. Another encouraging sign is that Bank Nifty is now sustaining comfortably above the 61.8 percent retracement of the entire decline from the all-time high of 61,679 to the recent low of 49,955, indicating that the primary uptrend has resumed.

As far as levels are concerned, the bullish gap left this week near the 200DSMA is likely to act as an important support zone in the range of 57,000–56,700. On the upside, the 58,500–59,500 zone is seen as the next key resistance area based on retracement projections and gap theory.

Key Resistance: 58,400, 59,200

Key Support: 57,400, 56,800

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips around 57,400, with a stop-loss of 57,150 and book profit near the 58,000 mark.

Report by Sunil Shankar Matkar 

Source: MoneyControl, Network18