..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 16/06/26, PostMarket REPORT

Tuesday, June 16, 2026

16/06/26, PostMarket REPORT

The benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty extended their rally for the third straight session on Tuesday, supported by positive global trends, easing crude oil prices following a peace deal between the US and Iran, and fresh foreign fund inflows.

At 2:30 pm, the Sensex climbed 552.40 points or 0.72 percent at 76,816.73, while the broader Nifty advanced to 24,000.30.

Twelve of the 16 major sectoral indices were trading higher. The broader Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 indices gained 0.4 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively.

Patel Engineering rose 2.5 percent after securing an order worth Rs 126 crore.

Aluminium makers Hindalco Industries and National Aluminium declined 3.8 percent and 4.9 percent, respectively,.tracking a fall in global aluminium prices

Key factors behind market rise

1) Decline in crude oil prices: Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading 0.32 percent lower at USD 82.90 per barrel. Lower oil prices are positive for India, the world's third-largest oil importer, as they help ease pressure on inflation, the rupee and the country's trade deficit.

"The deal is a macro boon for India as Brent crude is likely to stabilise at USD 75-80 a barrel, easing pressure on the current account deficit," Emkay Global analysts led by Seshadri Sen said.

Emkay Global has reiterated its March 2027 Nifty target of 29,000, implying an upside of 21.6 percent from the previous close after an 8.7 percent decline in the index so far this year.

"The deal also addresses supply chain bottlenecks and potential higher raw material costs across sectors, averting an inflation shock, while the relief on external account translates to improved domestic liquidity," they added.

2) Firm global cues: In Asian markets, South Korea's Kospi, Japan's Nikkei 225 and Shanghai's SSE Composite were trading higher, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng was lower. US markets ended in positive territory on Monday. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 3.07 percent, the S&P 500 surged 1.65 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.92 percent.

"Global cues continue to remain supportive, with US markets rallying sharply overnight. The Nasdaq surged over 3 percent, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones closed at fresh record highs, reflecting renewed optimism amid easing geopolitical concerns and improving risk sentiment.

"Brent crude's sharp decline is a key positive for Indian equities, while sustained domestic institutional buying continues to provide stability to the market," Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research, Axis Direct, said.

3) FII buying: Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned buyers on Monday and purchased equities worth Rs 200.05 crore. Foreign investors, who have sold a record Rs 2.58 lakh crore worth of Indian equities so far in 2026, turned net buyers on Monday after remaining sellers for 13 consecutive sessions.

4) Easing geopolitical concerns: The US and Iran reached an agreement on Sunday to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a move expected to facilitate the resumption of oil and natural gas shipments through one of the world's most important energy transit routes. Details of the agreement have not been made public. Iran has indicated implementation will begin only after a formal signing ceremony, which Pakistan, a key mediator in the negotiations, said is scheduled to take place in Switzerland on Friday.

5) Rupee rises: The rupee appreciated 5 paise to 94.53 against the US dollar, aided by a sharp decline in oil prices and easing tensions in the Middle East. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the domestic currency opened at 94.69 and later strengthened to 94.53, up 5 paise from its previous close.

6) Decline in India VIX: India VIX, the market's fear gauge, declined 5.23 percent to 13.60. A fall in the volatility index indicates easing concerns among investors and generally supports positive sentiment in equities by signalling lower expectations of near-term market swings.

Technical Outlook

Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments, said "The stumble near 24,029 was not surprising, but the drop thereafter has formed a flag pattern, which raises hope of bullish continuation. Expect a consolidation early in the day inside 23,800-23,900. "While we wait for a direct rise above 24,029, play a 24,300-24,600 move. Slippage past 23,800 may dilute momentum, but may not trigger a collapse."

Report by Paras Bist With inputs from Reuters

Source: Network18

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Tuesday, June 16, 2026

16/06/26, PostMarket REPORT

Key factors behind market rise

Technical Outlook

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18/06/26, Trading Plan for Today

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