..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 06/07/26, Insurance companies and the National Pension System (NPS) have emerged as the key drivers of domestic liquidity in Indian equities, together investing a record amount in the first half of 2026 since data became available. The buying has continued despite muted returns from Indian markets through the year and sustained selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs).

Monday, July 6, 2026

06/07/26, Insurance companies and the National Pension System (NPS) have emerged as the key drivers of domestic liquidity in Indian equities, together investing a record amount in the first half of 2026 since data became available. The buying has continued despite muted returns from Indian markets through the year and sustained selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs).

During January-June 2026, insurance companies bought equities worth around Rs 45,929 crore while NPS bought around Rs 42,922 crore, taking combined six-month buying to Rs 88,852 crore, a record since data became available in 2021, NSE data showed. Both insurance and NPS have seen robust, continued investment in Indian markets since the start of 2025, with combined buying of Rs 69,900 crore in the first half of the year and Rs 74,413 crore in the second half.

Raj Gaikar, Equity Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities, said the key driver behind these inflows is the nature of the capital itself. Unlike foreign portfolio flows, insurance premiums and NPS contributions are long-term and recurring, meaning investments continue irrespective of short-term market movements. Insurance companies receive a steady stream of premium income, while NPS benefits from regular monthly contributions from a rapidly expanding subscriber base, so neither is attempting to time the market.

In January-June 2026, India's benchmark Sensex and Nifty fell 10 percent and 8.66 percent respectively, while the broader BSE MidCap 150 and BSE SmallCap 250 indices gained 1.4 percent and 5.5 percent respectively. The year saw significant volatility on account of stretched valuations, continued FII selling, and trade tensions. The recent conflict involving the US, Iran and Israel triggered a surge in crude oil prices and weakened macroeconomic conditions.

Though Indian markets have recovered since the start of April, returns for the year remain muted, creating what some see as an attractive opportunity for these institutions to accumulate quality companies at more reasonable valuations. A gradual shift in household savings away from traditional assets such as bank deposits and gold towards market-linked investment products has further strengthened this domestic liquidity.

Behind the steady flows lie two structural reasons why this money keeps coming regardless of returns. From a regulatory standpoint, insurers operate under prudent investment norms that require a significant portion of their traditional funds to remain invested in government and other approved securities, with diversification limits on individual companies.

For insurance, a parallel effect plays out through product mix — ULIPs and market-linked pension plans are taking share from traditional endowment products, and equity allocation follows the product design automatically. Nobody at an insurer is making a market call in this process; the policyholder picks the plan, and the fund manager simply executes it.

For NPS, the Active Choice option permits equity allocation of up to 75 percent, while the Multiple Scheme Framework introduced in October 2025 allows eligible non-government subscribers to opt for schemes with equity exposure of up to 100 percent, depending on their investment preference. That marks a meaningful shift from a few years ago, when the scheme was structurally debt-heavy. Combined with a growing subscriber base contributing every month through payroll, this produces equity buying that is largely indifferent to how the index performed the previous week — it is contractual rather than discretionary in nature.

Set against a year in which FIIs have remained on the sidelines, selling nearly $29 billion so far in 2026, these two sources of demand have created something Indian markets have not had before at this scale — a genuinely domestic, contribution-driven demand base that is not performance-chasing. Mutual funds have added over Rs 2.88 lakh crore so far in 2026, taking total domestic institutional investor (DII) investment to around Rs 4.64 lakh crore so far this year. That, market participants say, is the real support level under Indian equities right now.

Atish Jain, CEO of Choice Connect, a partner-led financial distribution platform, said anyone building a five-year thesis on India should stop treating FII flows as the swing factor they once were. NPS penetration remains low relative to the size of the workforce, insurance's share of savings is still growing, and neither trend depends on stock returns to keep expanding. A flat year like this one, he said, is a stress test that the structure is passing quietly.

written by Ravindra Sonavani,

Source: Network18

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Monday, July 6, 2026

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07/07/26, LODHA DEVELOPERS Bullish

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