..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 31/07/26, Market Today

Friday, July 31, 2026

31/07/26, Market Today

The Nifty 50 posted gains of 0.3 percent despite range-bound trading, extending its uptrend for another session on July 30. Given the improvement in momentum indicators and the index sustaining well above its short- and medium-term moving averages, while continuing to form a higher high-higher low pattern backed by higher trading volumes, along with stable crude oil prices and a subdued India VIX, the index is expected to advance towards its immediate hurdle at 24,400 (200-day EMA). A decisive move above this level could pave the way for the 24,500-24,600 zone (previous swing highs, which have also attracted the maximum Call open interest), provided the 24,100 level continues to hold as support, according to experts.

1) Key Levels For The Nifty750 (24,317)

Resistance based on pivot points: 24,342, 24,379, and 24,438

Support based on pivot points: 24,223, 24,186, and 24,127

Special Formation: The Nifty 50 maintained its overall uptrend and has already recovered the previous week's losses. On the daily timeframe, the index formed a bullish candlestick with minor upper and lower wicks, indicating consolidation near overhead resistance levels such as the 200-day EMA and previous swing highs, while continuing to maintain a higher high-higher low formation. The index sustained above its 20-, 50-, and 100-day EMAs, reflecting a bullish bias, while the RSI climbed to 57.66 and remained above the reference line. Meanwhile, the MACD is on the verge of a bullish crossover. All these indicators point to strengthening bullish momentum and suggest the potential for a further upside move, provided key support levels remain intact.

2) Key Levels For The Nifty Bank(57,147)

Resistance based on pivot points: 57,230, 57,340, and 57,519

Support based on pivot points: 56,872, 56,762, and 56,583

Resistance based on Fibonacci retracement: 57,253, 59,247

Support based on Fibonacci retracement: 56,441, 55,742

Special Formation: The Bank Nifty continued to trade between the 20-day EMA and the 50- and 100-day EMAs, as well as within the 23.6 percent and 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement levels of the rally from the May low to the June high, for the fourth consecutive session, indicating a lack of clear direction. The banking index formed a Doji-like candlestick pattern on the daily charts, signalling indecisiveness among participants for another session. The RSI remained largely unchanged at 49.44 and stayed below the reference line, suggesting a lack of strong bullish or bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD continued to inch down towards the zero line, although the red histogram bars showed fading weakness. All these indicators suggest that Bank Nifty is likely to remain range-bound until a decisive breakout or breakdown provides a clearer directional bias.

3) Nifty Call Option Faya:

According to the weekly options data, the maximum Call open interest was seen at the 24,600 strike (with 1.01 crore contracts). This level can act as a key resistance level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 24,500 strike (99.84 lakh contracts) and 24,700 strike (77.46 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 24,500 strike, which saw an addition of 31.18 lakh contracts, followed by the 24,600 and 24,650 strikes, which added 29.53 lakh and 16.92 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 24,200 strike, which shed 11.82 lakh contracts, followed by the 24,450 and 24,000 strikes, which shed 9.65 lakh and 8.5 lakh contracts, respectively.

4) Nifty50 Put Option Data:

On the Put side, the 24,000 strike holds the maximum Put open interest (with 1.09 crore contracts), which can act as a key support level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 24,200 strike (1.07 crore contracts) and the 24,300 strike (59.55 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 24,300 strike, which saw an addition of 32.46 lakh contracts, followed by the 24,200 and 24,000 strikes, which added 19.19 lakh and 18.44 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 24,700 strike, which shed 30,810 contracts, followed by the 24,750 and 24,850 strikes, which shed 2,730 and 910 contracts, respectively.

5) Nifty Bank Call option Data:

According to the monthly options data, the maximum Call open interest was seen at the 58,000 strike, with 21.25 lakh contracts. This can act as a key resistance level for the index in the short term. It was followed by the 57,000 strike (8.03 lakh contracts) and the 57,500 strike (5.01 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 57,000 strike (with the addition of 1.37 lakh contracts), followed by the 58,000 strike (74,220 contracts) and 57,500 strike (52,770 contracts). The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 57,400 strike, which shed 27,930 contracts, followed by the 58,100 and 58,200 strikes, which shed 7,530 and 3,510 contracts, respectively.

6) Nifty Bank Put Option Data:

On the Put side, the 58,000 strike holds the maximum Put open interest (with 13.12 lakh contracts), which can act as a key level for the index in the short term. This was followed by the 57,000 strike (8.47 lakh contracts) and the 57,500 strike (3.66 lakh contracts).

Source:Network18

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Friday, July 31, 2026

31/07/26, Market Today

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31/07/26, GIFT NIFTY signals steady start

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