The firm, in its report “India Defence Sector – Ordering to Gain Momentum”, identified the P-75I submarine programme, QRSAM system and Next-Generation Corvette (NGC) programme as marquee orders expected to be placed in the near term.
The estimated value of the three programmes is around Rs 90,000 crore for P-75I, Rs 30,000 crore for QRSAM and more than Rs 33,000 crore for NGC. The potential awards come at a time when order inflows for listed defence companies fell around 17% in FY26, with Antique Stock Broking attributing the decline partly to delays in finalising large programmes.
The brokerage said that contractual negotiations for these projects have been completed and that final clearance from the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) could pave the way for the orders.
P-75I: Rs 90,000 crore submarine programme
The largest of the three expected orders is the P-75I conventional submarine programme, which the brokerage report estimates at around Rs 90,000 crore and expects to be awarded to Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MDL). The report stated that MDL may have completed contractual negotiations for the programme and is awaiting final CCS approval, which it expects could be finalised in the next few weeks.
The brokerage said the programme would massively expand MDL’s existing orderbook, which it puts at around Rs 18,000 crore elsewhere in the report.
Its naval shipbuilding market table puts the cost of the programme at Rs 70,000 crore, with the status described as contractual negotiations having started with MDL. The two figures are presented differently in the report and are not reconciled.
Beyond P-75I, the brokerage expects MDL could receive an additional order for three more submarines, mostly based on the TKMS design, during the current fiscal year.
According to the report, the two submarine orders together could be worth Rs 1.3-1.4 lakh crore, which would be more than seven times MDL’s current order book.
MDL’s larger order funnel
The submarine programmes are only part of the potential pipeline identified for MDL. The report lists potential future requests for proposals for:
P17B Frigates: Rs 70,000 crore
Mine Counter Measure Vessels: Rs 40,000 croreLanding Platform Docks: Rs 40,000 croreDestroyers: around Rs 48,000 crore
The P17B and other programmes are expected to feature in the FY27/FY28E pipeline, while the Destroyers programme could receive an AoN in FY28, according to the report.
For the Landing Platform Docks, MDL is expected to bid jointly with Swan Defence. Taking these programmes together with other potential orders, Antique Stock Broking estimates MDL’s total order funnel at more than Rs 2.9 lakh crore, almost 14 times its current order book.
The report also says MDL is in discussions with France’s Naval Group for building a Scorpene-class submarine for an unspecified Asian country.
QRSAM: Rs 30,000 crore missile opportunity
The second major programme is the Quick Reaction Surface-to-Air Missile (QRSAM) system, estimated at around Rs 30,000 crore.
Antique Stock Broking expects Bharat Electronics (BEL) to receive the main order and said the programme could be finalised by Q2FY27.
But the QRSAM programme could create a significant opportunity for Bharat Dynamics Ltd (BDL) as well.
The brokerage estimates BDL’s component supply share at around 40% of the programme value, translating into approximately Rs 12,000 crore in direct revenue. The execution is expected to take around 36 months. BDL’s potential QRSAM opportunity comes on top of its existing order pipeline. The company won orders worth around Rs 6,000 crore in FY26, including orders for ATGMs and INVAR missiles, taking its order book to approximately Rs 21,000 crore.
For FY27, Antique Stock Broking expects BDL to win orders worth around Rs 20,000 crore, including QRSAM, Astra Mk II and MR-SAM programmes.
The company also has an outstanding Akash missile order worth Rs 7,000 crore, which is expected to be executed through FY29.
BEL’s wider pipeline extends beyond QRSAM
For BEL, the potential QRSAM order forms part of a much broader pipeline. The report identifies NGC and P75I, along with Hammer Alpha, Shakti Phase IV, Shatrughat and Samaghat, among the company’s other programmes.
BEL is also expected to secure orders for Combat Management Systems (CMS) for both the NGC and P75I programmes. The company has an export order book of $465 million, according to the report. BEL is actively pursuing opportunities worth around four to five times its existing export order book and expects to convert approximately $300 million of these opportunities into orders during FY27.
Antique Stock Broking said BEL’s FY27 guidance includes revenue growth of more than 15%, EBITDA margins above 28% and fresh order inflows of around Rs 55,000 crore. Including QRSAM, the brokerage suggested that order inflows could exceed Rs 60,000 crore.
BEL has planned annual capex of Rs 1,200 crore, along with another Rs 2,200 crore allocated towards research and development.
NGC: Rs 33,000 crore opportunity for GRSE
The third major programme is the Next-Generation Corvette, estimated at more than Rs 33,000 crore. The report identifies Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers (GRSE) as the L1, or lowest, bidder for the programme. The order is currently awaiting final CCS clearance.
GRSE’s current order book is estimated at around Rs 12,000-13,000 crore, according to the report. The shipbuilder is also positioned for the P17B Frigates programme, estimated at around Rs 70,000 crore.
Under the P17B programme, the L1 bidder would build four frigates, while the L2 bidder would build three.Antique Stock Broking estimates that including the P17B opportunity, GRSE’s order book could reach around Rs 75,600 crore by FY28E, which would be about 4.9 times its FY26 order book.
Why these three orders matter
The three programmes could have a multiplier effect across India’s defence industrial ecosystem. The P-75I programme would provide a major boost to domestic submarine construction. QRSAM would create opportunities not only for BEL but also for missile manufacturer BDL, while the NGC programme would strengthen GRSE’s naval shipbuilding pipeline.
The programmes also illustrate how a single large defence contract can generate orders across multiple companies rather than benefiting only the primary contractor.
For instance, QRSAM could result in around Rs 12,000 crore of direct revenue for BDL, while BEL is expected to participate through the system as well as through related Combat Management System orders.
Article written by Ajay Joseph
Source: Financial Express
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