..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 24/08/26, India’s logistics sector is increasingly becoming a direct beneficiary of rising consumption, manufacturing activity and the country’s expanding infrastructure network. But for investors, the more interesting question is whether this improving business environment is beginning to reflect in stock prices. The charts of Transport Corporation of India (TCI), RITCO Logistics and Aegis Logistics suggest that the answer could be yes.

Monday, August 24, 2026

24/08/26, India’s logistics sector is increasingly becoming a direct beneficiary of rising consumption, manufacturing activity and the country’s expanding infrastructure network. But for investors, the more interesting question is whether this improving business environment is beginning to reflect in stock prices. The charts of Transport Corporation of India (TCI), RITCO Logistics and Aegis Logistics suggest that the answer could be yes.

The three stocks are at different stages of their technical setups, but they share an important characteristic: buyers appear to be returning at key technical levels. For a lay investor, this matters because technical analysis is essentially the study of price behaviour. When price repeatedly holds important support or breaks through a resistance level, it provides clues about how market participants are positioning themselves.

The broader backdrop is supportive. ICRA expects India’s road logistics sector to record 8-10% revenue growth in FY2027, while organised players could benefit from their ability to command a premium in a competitive market. (ICRA) Logistics activity is also being supported by manufacturing, consumption, e-commerce and infrastructure development. (CBRE India)

TCI: Breakout Level turns into a Potential Demand Zone

The monthly chart of Transport Corporation of India (TCI) presents an interesting long-term structure. The stock had spent a considerable period below the Rs.858 level, before breaking decisively above it. This level is now being tested from the other side.

This is a classic technical principle: old resistance can become new support.

Interestingly, the 50-month exponential moving average, or 50MEMA, is rising steadily. A moving average simply smoothens price movements and helps investors identify the underlying trend. When the average itself is rising and price remains above it, the long-term trend is generally considered healthier.

The recent price action shows consolidation around the Rs.858-910 zone rather than a sharp rejection. That is constructive. If TCI sustains above 858 and subsequently moves above the recent consolidation zone, the stock could attempt to revisit its previous highs around the Rs.1,100-1,170 zone.

For investors, Rs.858 becomes the important technical line in the sand. Sustaining above it keeps the bullish structure intact; a decisive move back below it would weaken the setup.

RITCO: The Base and Reversal Pattern

Ritco's weekly chart arguably offers the most visually compelling setup. The stock has formed an inverse Head-and-Shoulders pattern, one of the better-known bullish reversal formations.

Think of the pattern as a market making three attempts to fall. The middle attempt – the “head” which goes deepest, while the two surrounding attempts – the “shoulders” are shallower. When the stock finally crosses the common resistance line, known as the neckline, it indicates that sellers have lost control.

RITCO has now moved above the neckline near the Rs.290 zone and is trading around Rs.318. This is important because the breakout is not merely an intraday move; it has occurred on the weekly chart, giving the signal greater significance.

The classical target for an inverse Head-and-Shoulders is calculated by measuring the distance between the head and neckline and adding it to the breakout point. On the chart, that points towards the potential zone of Rs.390-400, although technical targets are projections, not guarantees.

A healthy retest of the neckline followed by renewed buying would strengthen the bullish case.

Aegis Logistics: Waiting for the Follow-Through Breakout

Aegis Logistics presents a different picture. Its 3×3 Point & Figure chart shows a strong long-term upward structure, with price currently around Rs.1,397 and approaching the important Rs.1,481 resistance.

Point & Figure charts filter out much of the market noise and concentrate on meaningful price movements. The repeated X-columns indicate periods of demand, while O-columns represent supply.

Aegis has already established a series of higher price zones, but the crucial technical event would be a decisive breakout above Rs.1,481. Such a move would take the stock into fresh territory on the chart and could signal renewed momentum.

Until that happens, investors should treat Rs.1,481 as the trigger rather than assuming the breakout in advance.

Are You Adding these 3 Logistics Stocks to Your Watchlist?

The three charts therefore offer three different stages of a potential bullish cycle. TCI is defending a major breakout zone, RITCO has already broken out of a classical reversal pattern, while Aegis is approaching a major resistance breakout.

The fundamental backdrop also provides support to the technical story. Indian Railways reported freight loading of 1,670 million tonnes in FY2026, up from 1,098 million tonnes in FY2014-15, highlighting the structural expansion of India’s freight ecosystem.

At present, the technical evidence across TCI, RITCO and Aegis Logistics points towards a probable bullish phase, but confirmation and disciplined risk management will determine whether that probability turns into a sustained trend.

Written by Mr Brijesh Bhatia

Source: FinancialExpress

Disclaimer:

Note: The purpose of this article is only to share interesting charts, data points and thought-provoking opinions. It is NOT a recommendation. If you wish to consider an investment, you are strongly advised to consult your advisor. This article is strictly for educative purposes only.

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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