..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 01/09/26, Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty are likely to open on a weak note on Tuesday, with GIFT Nifty seeing a modest fall in the morning trade. A renewed US-Iran fighting pushed crude oil prices above $91 a barrel, while Wall Street ended lower overnight. Mixed Asian markets and heavy foreign investor selling also weigh on sentiment. GIFT Nifty was trading at 24,166 at around 8.10 am, down 60 points, or 0.25 percent, from its previous day's close. Indian equities ended lower in the previous session following the Closing Auction Session. The Sensex fell 307.68 points, or 0.40 percent, to 76,956.83, while the Nifty declined 95.25 points, or 0.39 percent, to 24,080.40. The macro backdrop remains mixed. Rising crude prices could offset some of the support from India's stronger-than-expected GDP growth, and expectations that the US Federal Reserve could keep monetary policy tighter for longer may weigh on risk appetite across emerging markets.

Tuesday, September 1, 2026

01/09/26, Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty are likely to open on a weak note on Tuesday, with GIFT Nifty seeing a modest fall in the morning trade. A renewed US-Iran fighting pushed crude oil prices above $91 a barrel, while Wall Street ended lower overnight. Mixed Asian markets and heavy foreign investor selling also weigh on sentiment. GIFT Nifty was trading at 24,166 at around 8.10 am, down 60 points, or 0.25 percent, from its previous day's close. Indian equities ended lower in the previous session following the Closing Auction Session. The Sensex fell 307.68 points, or 0.40 percent, to 76,956.83, while the Nifty declined 95.25 points, or 0.39 percent, to 24,080.40. The macro backdrop remains mixed. Rising crude prices could offset some of the support from India's stronger-than-expected GDP growth, and expectations that the US Federal Reserve could keep monetary policy tighter for longer may weigh on risk appetite across emerging markets.

Oil rises above $91 as US-Iran fighting resumes

Crude oil prices climbed on Tuesday after renewed fighting in the Middle East revived concerns around energy supplies. Brent crude rose 0.7 percent to above $91 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate gained 0.9 percent to $86.55 a barrel. The US and Iran exchanged strikes for the first time in about a month, with American forces hitting an island in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran responding with attacks on the United Arab Emirates and Jordan.

Asian markets mixed; Wall Street ends lower on inflation concerns

Asian equities traded on a mixed note on Tuesday as investors balanced geopolitical concerns against pockets of strength in regional markets. MSCI's Asia-Pacific equities gauge edged 0.3 percent higher, led by Taiwanese shares. Japan's Topix rose 0.5 percent, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.5 percent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.7 percent, while the Shanghai Composite was largely unchanged. S&P 500 futures were also little changed in Asian trade.

Wall Street ends lower as oil fuels inflation concerns

US equities declined on Monday as the jump in crude oil prices revived concerns over inflation and the possibility of tighter monetary policy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.70 percent to 53,185.90, while the S&P 500 lost 0.33 percent to 7,686.14. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.12 percent to 26,370.89.

Expectations around the Federal Reserve remain a major global market driver after recent signals that policymakers remain focused on controlling inflation. The US jobs report will be the next key global trigger, with investors looking for clues on the Fed's policy trajectory, Treasury yields and broader risk appetite.

Strong India GDP growth offers domestic cushion

On the domestic front, a resilient economy faces the challenging global backdrop. India's real GDP expanded 7.8 percent in the first quarter of FY27, exceeding the RBI's projection of 7 percent as well as market expectations. Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said robust domestic consumption, sustained investment activity and healthy manufacturing growth supported the stronger performance despite an increasingly challenging global environment. He expects the growth print to help cushion some of the downside risks facing Indian equities.

Nifty technical outlook

Ponmudi expects the Nifty to retain a cautious-to-weak bias, with 24,200 as the immediate resistance and 24,300-24,400 as the stronger hurdle. The 24,000 level remains crucial support, with a decisive break potentially opening the way towards 23,900-23,800.

Foreign portfolio flows remain a key concern after FIIs intensified their selling in the previous session. Foreign institutional investors offloaded nearly Rs 8,000 crore worth of Indian equities on August 31. Domestic institutional investors continued to provide support, buying equities worth Rs 4,588 crore.

Report written by Shaleen Agrawal

Source: Network18

Disclaimer: we advises readers to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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