..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 06/09/26, STOCKS TO BUY

Sunday, September 6, 2026

06/09/26, STOCKS TO BUY

The domestic equity markets ended Friday session on positive note, snapping a four-day losing streak. The Nifty 50 closed 0.10% higher at 23,897.70, while the BSE Sensex gained 0.48% to end at 76,515.43.

Several leading brokerages, including Jefferies, Macquarie, JM Financial, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Motilal Oswal, have issued fresh recommendations on key stocks. Based on their latest calls, we have shortlisted 10 stocks across sectors for investors to watch.

CLSA on PVR INOX

CLSA has retained its ‘Outperform’ rating on PVR INOX with a target price of Rs 2,135, implying around 78% upside from current levels. The brokerage’s view is based on improving cinema attendance, higher customer spending and the potential for better margins as operating leverage improves.

PVR INOX had a stronger first quarter, with admissions rising 8% year-on-year. Revenue from movie tickets increased 15%, while food and beverages (F&B) sales rose 13%. Reported Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) also grew 33%.

CLSA believes the rise in both attendance and per-customer spending points to improving demand. The brokerage called PVR INOX “a compelling play on discretionary consumption in India” and said multiplexes remain a key form of outdoor entertainment.

Margin improvement is another focus area. The company has been working to control utilities, manpower, rental and F&B costs, while improving its food offerings to encourage higher customer spending. CLSA expects these measures, along with better occupancy, to support a recovery in profitability.

CLSA on ONGC

CLSA has assigned a ‘High-Conviction Outperform’ rating to ONGC with a target price of Rs 405, implying around 71% upside from current levels.

The brokerage believes ONGC is already factoring in a Brent crude price below current levels, which could limit the downside even if supply from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) increases.

Motilal Oswal on PhysicsWallah

Motilal Oswal has initiated coverage on PhysicsWallah (PW) with a ‘Buy’ rating and a Rs 200 target price, implying around 66% upside from current market levels. The brokerage expects the online business to remain the main growth driver, with revenue projected to grow at around 28% CAGR from FY26 to FY30. It said, “The online business is PW’s primary value driver.”

The brokerage also expects PhysicsWallah’s margins to improve, with pre-Ind AS EBITDA margin rising from around 26% in FY26 to 30% by FY28. Its offline business, which has 353 centres, is expected to grow at around 20% CAGR through FY30.

Jefferies on Siemens Energy India

Jefferies’ Siemens Energy India target price stands at Rs 4,800. This implies around 48.5% upside. The brokerage expects the company to deliver 43% annualised earnings per share (EPS) growth through FY28, supported by operating leverage and rising power-sector capital expenditure in India.

The June-quarter order book for Siemens Energy increased 16% year-on-year to Rs 19,100 crore, equivalent to around 2.5 times FY25 sales. Jefferies expects operating leverage to drive a 475-basis-point improvement in margins to 24% by FY28, as fixed costs decline as a share of revenue as the business expands.

Macquarie on Bharat Electronics

Macquarie has assigned an ‘Outperform’ rating to Bharat Electronics with a target price of Rs 550, indicating around 35% upside from current levels. This is the highest potential upside among the stocks in its India Industrials coverage. However, Bharat Electronics does not feature in Macquarie’s list of Indian companies supplying the specific bulk-power equipment categories to the US.

Jefferies on HDFC Bank, Axis Bank and SBI

Jefferies expects large banks to deliver around 13% profit CAGR, with valuations appearing more reasonable after their recent underperformance. Jefferies prefers HDFC Bank, Axis Bank and State Bank of India among large lenders.

Within the sector, Jefferies has set a target price of Rs 1,700 for Axis Bank, implying around 35% upside, while its HDFC Bank target of Rs 880 suggests 24% upside. For ICICI Bank, the brokerage has a Rs 1,750 target price, indicating around 22% upside.

Jefferies on Welspun Corp

Jefferies has given a ‘Buy’ rating on Welspun Corp with a Rs 3,250 target price, implying around 27% upside. The brokerage sees strong demand from the US energy infrastructure cycle, supported by rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, data-centre power demand and higher gas production.

It said, “US energy infrastructure is in a multi-year investment phase.” Welspun has around 30% share of the US market and is expanding its local manufacturing capacity.

Jefferies expects Welspun Corp to post 17% volume growth and around 32-33% annual compound growth in EBITDA and EPS between FY26-29.

Macquarie on CG Power and Industrial Solutions

Macquarie has given CG Power an ‘Outperform’ rating with a Rs 1,090 target price, indicating a potential 22% total shareholder return. The brokerage said management is assessing the economics of India Semiconductor Mission (ISM) 2.0 before deciding on further expansion of its semiconductor facilities. For now, the focus remains on scaling the existing operations, with the main plant already in production.

Macquarie sees scope for further expansion if the economics under the new semiconductor framework are favourable for CG Power. However, it flagged risks including weaker or delayed orders, a slowdown in artificial intelligence-related capital expenditure, higher commodity costs and rising competition that could pressure margins.

Jefferies on Allied Blenders

Jefferies has retained ‘Buy’ on Allied Blenders with a target price of Rs 780, implying around 28% upside from the current market price. According to the brokerage report, sustained growth in ICONiQ White, the revival of legacy brands and greater backward integration could support earnings in the coming years.

Jefferies expects margin improvement to become more visible from FY28, as backward integration and operating leverage start contributing.

The brokerage noted, “After delivering ~650bps of EBITDA margin expansion over FY24-26 through premiumisation, refinancing and cost optimisation, Allied Blenders management expects further improvement from a richer product mix, continued premiumisation and the benefits of backward integration.”

Jefferies on Adani Energy, Torrent Power, JSW Energy and more

Jefferies continues to prefer the power sector, with rising electricity demand and fresh capacity additions expected to support earnings growth. The brokerage expects private-sector power generation to grow at around 9% CAGR between FY26 and FY30, compared with 4% for public-sector generation.

Among utilities, Adani Energy Solutions has the highest target-based upside of 49%, with a target price of Rs 2,060. Jefferies has set a Rs 1,780 target for Torrent Power, implying 46% upside, and a Rs 720 target for JSW Energy, suggesting 39% upside. Adani Green Energy has a target of Rs 1,695, implying 35% upside, while Adani Power has a Rs 270 target, pointing to 33% upside.

Report by Olivia Kunjumon

Source: FinancialExpress

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Sunday, September 6, 2026

06/09/26, STOCKS TO BUY

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