..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 21/01/25, The Nifty is poised for a critical session on Tuesday, with immediate support at 23,200 and resistance levels at 23,360 and 23,570. "Tomorrow's trade will be crucial for further clarity.

Tuesday, January 21, 2025

21/01/25, The Nifty is poised for a critical session on Tuesday, with immediate support at 23,200 and resistance levels at 23,360 and 23,570. "Tomorrow's trade will be crucial for further clarity.

A breakout above the current level could see the index reaching the 23,570-23,690 zone," said Aditya Gaggar, Director at Progressive Shares.

The index gained 142 points to close at 23,345, driven by strong global cues and robust third quarter earnings from Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. and Wipro Ltd.

"We expect the market to trade within a broad range with stock- and sector-specific action continuing as the Q3 result season picks up pace," said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Broader markets also rebounded, with the Smallcap 50 and Midcap 50 indices recovering after heavy sell-offs. "The broader market exhibited a healthy bounce back after recent bloodbaths, but concerns over the US stance on the global economy capped gains," said Ameya Ranadive, Chartered Market Technician and Senior Technical Analyst at StoxBox.

Key earnings to watch on Tuesday include ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd., KEI Industries Ltd., Tata Technologies Ltd., and PNB Housing Finance Ltd., which could influence market sentiment, said Khemka.

Market Recap

Indian benchmark indexes closed higher following a brief dip as the world prepares for Donald Trump's swearing-in as the 47th US president and the flurry of executive orders he is anticipated to issue.

Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. and Wipro Ltd. led the gains in the key indices, with analysts raising their target prices in response to positive earnings.

The S&P BSE Sensex Index closed at 77,073, up 454 points or 0.59%, while the NSE Nifty 50 was up 141 points or 0.61%, to 23,344.

Intraday, the NSE Nifty 50 rose 0.81% to 23,391, while the S&P BSE Sensex increased 0.91% to 77,318.9. The advances over the day lifted the indices to their second-best session this year.

Stock Market Highlights: Nifty, Sensex Clock Second-Best Session Of 2025; Kotak, HDFC Bank Top GainersGlobal Cues

Stocks in the Asia-Pacific region advanced on Tuesday after US President Donald Trump resisted imposing any trade tariff in his inaugural speech, while promising a "golden age" for America.

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 opened higher with the benchmark index advancing by 0.5%, or 41 points, to 8,388 as of 6:25 a.m. South Korea's Kospi was down 1.1 points, or 0.04% at 2,518. Future contracts in China and Hong Kong hinted at a positive start.

Asian currencies strengthened after Bloomberg's dollar gauge slid more than 1% Monday. The dollar index - which tracks the greenback's performance against a basket of 10 leading global currencies - was 0.92% down at 108.34. Bitcoin traded above the $102,000 mark.

Trump promised to sign a series of executive orders, including a national energy emergency, promising to "drill baby drill". The president held off on unveiling China-specific tariffs, triggering a decline in the US dollar lower and US stock futures higher.

He vowed to prioritise America's interests and aimed at a "radical and corrupt establishment". He pledged to tackle residual inflation. President Trump withdrew from the Paris climate treaty.

Crude oil prices declined as Trump vowed to declare a national emergency to unleash domestic energy production. The Brent crude was trading 0.79% lower at $80.15 a barrel as of 6:45 a.m. IST, and the West Texas Intermediate was down 1.46% at $76.74.

Money Market

The rupee gave up some of its early gains but closed 4 paise higher at 86.57 against the US dollar. According to Bloomberg data, the domestic currency opened higher versus the dollar at 84.48. It closed at Rs 86.61 per dollar on Friday.

Rupee Closes Stronger Against US Dollar After Two-Sessions Of Weakness.

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Tuesday, January 21, 2025

21/01/25, The Nifty is poised for a critical session on Tuesday, with immediate support at 23,200 and resistance levels at 23,360 and 23,570. "Tomorrow's trade will be crucial for further clarity.

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27/01/25, Sensex Crash by 900 points

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