..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 06/02/26, Share Market Today

Friday, February 6, 2026

06/02/26, Share Market Today

The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open lower on Friday, following a sell-off in global markets, and ahead of the RBI monetary policy.

Asian markets traded lower, while the US stock market plunged overnight, dragged by heavy selling technology stocks.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce its February monetary policy later today. The RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra-led Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is widely expected to keep repo rates unchanged at 5.25%.

On Thursday, the Indian stock market ended lower amid selling across sectors, as investors opted for profit-booking.

The Sensex declined 503.76 points, or 0.60%, to close at 83,313.93, while the Nifty 50 settled 133.20 points, or 0.52%, lower at 25,642.80.

"The markets are expected to track global developments, macroeconomic data, and the ongoing Q3 earnings season over the near term," said Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

Here are key global market cues for Sensex today:

Asian Markets

Asian markets traded lower on Friday, following overnight losses on Wall Street. Japan's Nikkei 225 declined 1.22% and the Topix fell 0.74%. South Korea's Kospi dropped 3.86%, while the Kosdaq plunged 5.26%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index futures indicated a lower opening.

Gift Nifty Today

Gift Nifty was trading around 25,585 level, a discount of nearly 140 points from the Nifty futures' previous close, indicating a negative start for the Indian stock market indices.

Wall Street

US stock market ended sharply lower on Thursday, with the Nasdaq falling to its lowest since November, dragged by losses in Microsoft, Amazon and other tech heavyweights.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.20% to 48,908.72, while the S&P 500 plunged 1.23% to end the session at 6,798.40. The Nasdaq closed 1.59% lower at 22,540.59.

Nvidia stock price dropped 1.37%, Microsoft share price tanked 4.95%, AMD shares declined 3.84%, Alphabet shares fell 0.6%, Palantir stock price slipped 6.8%, Oracle shares plunged 7% and Qualcomm slid 8.5%. Tesla stock price declined 2.17%, while Amazon shares lost 4.4% during regular trading and then tumbled another 10% after the closing bell.

US Job Openings

US job openings dropped to the lowest level in more than five years in December. Job openings, a measure of labor demand, decreased by 386,000 to 6.542 million by the last day of December, the lowest level since September 2020, JOLTS report showed. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 7.20 million unfilled jobs. Hiring increased by 172,000 positions to a still-low 5.293 million in December.

ECB Policy

The European Central Bank kept policy rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting, with its key interest rate at 2%. The euro zone's central bank has been on hold since ending a year-long run of rate cuts in June. ECB acknowledged continued uncertainties around global trade policy and geopolitical tensions but said an updated assessment still saw inflation stabilising at its 2% target in the medium term.

Bank of England Policy

The Bank of England kept interest rates on hold in a narrow 5-4 vote, and said borrowing costs are likely to fall if an expected drop soon in inflation is sustained. Despite a big cut to its economic growth forecast this year along with a rise in unemployment, the BoE left its benchmark rate at 3.75%, as expected in a Reuters poll of economists.

Dollar

The US dollar steadied near a two-week high on Friday, poised for its strongest weekly performance since November. The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six other units, was at 97.961, hovering near the highest since January 23, Reuters reported. The index is set for a 1% increase for the week. The euro was at $1.1784, Sterling was nursing steep losses and stood at $1.3520 after dropping nearly 1% in the previous session. The yen rose to 156.74.

Gold Prices

Gold and silver extended losses on a strong US dollar. Spot gold price declined 0.7% to $4,735.99 per ounce, after a near 4% drop on Thursday. US gold futures for April delivery fell 2.8% to $4,752.40 per ounce. Spot silver price fell 3.2% to $68.97 an ounce after a 19.1% drop in the previous session.

Bitcoin Prices

Bitcoin price tumbled below $61,000 as broader market turbulence deepened a selloff. The token sank as much as 4.8% to $60,033 to plunge to its lowest since October 2024.

Crude Oil Prices

Crude oil prices extended their decline, on track for their first weekly drop in weeks, as supply concerns eased, while focus remained on the outcome of US-Iran nuclear talks. Brent crude futures dropped 0.74% to $67.05 a barrel after settling 2.75% lower in the previous session. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $62.77 a barrel, down 0.82%, after closing 2.84% lower on Thursday.

source:Mint (with inputs from Reuters)

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Friday, February 6, 2026

06/02/26, Share Market Today

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