..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 16/02/26, Dalal Street Investments Journal POSTMARKET REPORT

Monday, February 16, 2026

16/02/26, Dalal Street Investments Journal POSTMARKET REPORT

The Indian equity markets staged a resilient recovery on Monday, with the BSE Sensex surging 650.39 points (0.79 per cent) to close at 83,277.15. Despite a cautious start that saw the index dip to an Intraday low of 82,276.95, the Nifty 50 also rebounded strongly, finishing 211.65 points (0.83 per cent) higher at 25,682.75.

Performance across the board was led by heavyweights, with Power Grid emerging as a top gainer, rising 4.45 per cent, followed closely by HDFC Bank, which climbed 2.2 per cent. The rally was further supported by outperformance in defensive and consumption-linked sectors. Indices such as FMCG, Pharma, Healthcare and Realty posted notable gains, signalling selective buying interest from investors even as the broader market displayed a mixed sectoral trend.

While defensive segments flourished, cyclical sectors like Auto, IT, Media and Metals faced downward pressure, reflecting a degree of profit-booking and cautious sentiment regarding near-term direction. Globally, the cues remained relatively stable with S&P 500 futures edging up slightly, providing a neutral to positive backdrop for the domestic recovery. This late-session surge highlights the market's ability to bounce back from opening lows amidst shifting investor priorities.

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Market at 12:00 Noon

At mid-day on February 16, 2026, the Indian benchmark indices maintained a positive trajectory with the Sensex rising 145 points to 82,769, while the Nifty-50 climbed 0.22 per cent to reach the 25,525 level. This upward movement was largely bolstered by strength in energy and banking shares, even as the broader market showed signs of pressure with the Mid-Cap 50 and Small-Cap 100 indices edging lower. In the currency derivatives market, USD INR Futures for the February 25 expiry were trading at Rs 90.75, while the total market capitalisation of the Nifty-50 stood at Rs 464 lakh crore. Top Gainers for the session included Torrent Pharma, Kwality Walls and Power Grid, providing a necessary cushion against the volatility reflected in a slight 0.1 per cent rise in the India VIX.

In stark contrast to the general market gains, the IT sector faced a significant sell-off for the fourth consecutive session, with heavyweights like Infosys, Tech Mahindra and Wipro declining up to 2 per cent. Investors remained spooked by ongoing concerns regarding artificial intelligence-led disruptions, causing the Nifty IT index to slump approximately 1 per cent to 32,360.35. While Indian tech struggled, Australian markets saw a different trend, with the S&P/ASX 200 rising to 8,937.10 on the back of a massive 5.7 per cent surge in their technology sector. Meanwhile, across the Tasman Sea, New Zealand's S&P/NZX 50 dipped 0.6 per cent as the market braced for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's upcoming policy meeting, where interest rates are widely expected to hold steady at 2.25 per cent.

NSE IPO Updates: The National Stock Exchange (NSE) faces a new hurdle as a petition in the Delhi High Court challenges SEBI's recent no-objection certificate. The plea, filed by a former judicial officer, alleges non-compliance with derivative adjustment frameworks and a lack of regulatory transparency. This legal battle over dividend adjustments and oversight could further stall the IPO, which has been pending since 2016 due to ongoing governance and technical scrutiny.

Opening Bell Update

At the 9:15 am opening bell, the Indian stock market kicked off in the red, with the Sensex dropping 146 points and the Nifty 50 declining by 0.2 per cent. This early slump was largely driven by weakness in major Tata Group stocks, specifically Tata Steel and Titan Company, which weighed heavily on the indices.

Market breadth skewed toward the bears as 1,625 stocks declined compared to 1,079 advances, while 215 remained unchanged. Interestingly, despite the downward pressure, 25 stocks managed to hit 52-week highs, though they were outnumbered by 70 stocks touching 52-week lows.

The broader market reflected similar cautious sentiment, with the BSE 150 Mid-Cap Index slipping 0.39 per cent and the BSE 250 Small-Cap Index trading down 0.38 per cent. While the overall mood was sombre, some buying interest emerged in specific names like Syngene International Ltd, Honeywell Automation India Ltd and Thermax Ltd, which led the gainers alongside TTK Prestige and Healthcare Global Enterprises.

On the flip side, significant selling pressure was seen in Top Losers such as Shakti Pumps (India) Ltd, Blue Jet Healthcare and Angel One Ltd, marking a volatile start to the session.

Pre Market Updates

Following a tough Friday where the Sensex and Nifty both slid over 1.25 per cent, the early signals suggest we aren't out of the woods just yet. With GIFT Nifty trading down over 100 points, brace yourselves for a gap-down start as the market digests heavy profit booking and lingering selling pressure, particularly from the IT sector.

Global cues are providing a mixed bag of energy this morning. While the S&P 500 and Dow Jones managed to scratch out tiny gains thanks to cooling inflation data, the tech-heavy Nasdaq took a hit as AI disruption fears continue to spook investors. Over in Asia, markets are looking relatively quiet and consolidated, hampered by weak economic data out of Japan and holiday-thinned trading volumes. It seems the world is in a "wait-and-see" mode.

On the domestic front, keep a sharp eye on the Healthcare sector today. Stocks like Piramal Pharma, Alkem, Natco and Zydus are under the microscope following a wave of USFDA approvals and observations. We also have plenty of corporate action to track with TCS, Religare and Ixigo making moves through fresh acquisitions and strategic developments. Meanwhile, the banking sector is buzzing about the RBI's upcoming margin rules, which will demand full collateral backing starting April 1.

Institutional activity shows a bit of a tug-of-war happening behind the scenes. On Friday, FIIs offloaded a significant Rs 7,395 crore, while DIIs tried to cushion the fall by picking up Rs 5,553 crore. Despite the recent selling, FIIs actually remain net buyers for the month of February so far. In the commodities space, gold has eased slightly to USD 5,014/oz as volatility hits leveraged bets, while crude oil remains steady with Brent hovering around USD 67.74. Stay sharp, watch those levels and remember that Sammaan Capital and SAIL are on the F&O ban list today!

Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Monday, February 16, 2026

16/02/26, Dalal Street Investments Journal POSTMARKET REPORT

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16/02/26, AI is thinking, writing and calculating faster and cheaper than ever. With white-collar jobs at risk, are Science, Commerce or Humanities still safe bets?

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