..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 16/06/26, PreMarket REPORT

Tuesday, June 16, 2026

16/06/26, PreMarket REPORT

Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty are likely to open mildly higher on Tuesday, with GIFT Nifty trading above the previous Nifty futures close, even as Asian markets turned cautious after the previous session's rally. Investors appeared to be reassessing the preliminary US-Iran peace agreement and shifting their focus to a busy week of central bank meetings, including the US Federal Reserve's policy decision due on Wednesday.

GIFT Nifty was trading at 23,958 at around 8:15 am, up 67 points or 0.28 percent. The signal comes after the Sensex rose 736.38 points and the Nifty gained 231 points on Monday, extending gains for a second straight session as easing geopolitical tensions and a sharp fall in crude oil prices improved risk appetite.

Asian equities traded mixed on Tuesday after a strong rally in the previous session. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was little changed after giving up early gains, while Japan's Nikkei 225 slipped 0.3 percent. Investors turned cautious as they awaited further details of the preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran and monitored upcoming central bank decisions, including the Bank of Japan's policy announcement later in the day.

The initial optimism surrounding the US-Iran agreement has moderated as market participants await clarity on the framework and timeline for restoring normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. While both countries have endorsed a preliminary understanding, details of the agreement have not yet been made public and a permanent truce is yet to be finalised.

Oil prices rebounded modestly after Monday's sharp selloff. Brent crude futures rose 0.3 percent to around $83.4 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude traded above $81 per barrel. The recovery follows a nearly 5 percent drop in crude prices on Monday after US President Donald Trump announced a framework agreement aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Overnight, Wall Street extended its rally as investors welcomed lower oil prices and easing inflation concerns. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.92 percent to a record closing high, while the S&P 500 gained 1.65 percent and the Nasdaq Composite surged 3.07 percent. Technology stocks led gains as lower energy prices improved the outlook for inflation and interest rates.

Market attention is now increasingly shifting to a packed calendar of central bank meetings. The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, but investors will closely monitor policymakers' projections and commentary for clues on the future rate path. The Bank of Japan is also expected to deliver a rate increase, while several other major central banks are scheduled to announce policy decisions this week.

According to Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, Indian markets are expected to maintain a positive bias as investors respond to easing geopolitical risks and lower crude oil prices. "The United States and Iran have reportedly signed a preliminary agreement, with U.S. President Donald Trump and Iran's lead negotiator endorsing a framework that could pave the way for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The agreement is being seen as a major step towards regional stability and has strengthened confidence across global financial markets by reducing concerns over energy supply disruptions and broader geopolitical uncertainty," he said.

Foreign institutional investors purchased equities worth Rs 200 crore on June 15, snapping a 13-session selling streak. Domestic institutional investors remained supportive, buying equities worth Rs 3,189 crore during the session.

From a technical perspective, Ponmudi said the Nifty's immediate hurdle remains the 24,000 mark, while support is placed around the 23,800 level. A sustained move above 24,000 could strengthen bullish momentum and pave the way for further gains towards the 24,200-24,400 zone.

Source: Network18

No comments:

Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

Pages

logo

Tuesday, June 16, 2026

16/06/26, PreMarket REPORT

No comments:

Today's

18/06/26, Trading Plan for Today

.

Translate