..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 15/06/26, PostMarket REPORT

Monday, June 15, 2026

15/06/26, PostMarket REPORT

Markets have staged a powerful relief rally on June 15 as expectation of a possible US-Iran peace deal eased fears of an oil shock and reduced one of the biggest risks hanging over the global economy. For India, lower crude prices could mean everything from a stronger rupee and lower inflation to improved corporate margins and a better earnings outlook. Yet, investors know that relief rallies are easy. Sustaining them is much harder. Valuations are not cheap, global capital continues to chase the AI trade, earnings growth still needs to accelerate, and the path of interest rates remains uncertain. The next leg of the market will depend less on headlines and more on whether the fundamentals begin to improve.

Moneycontrol of Network18 brings together some of the biggest market voices, hard data and diverse perspectives to answer the questions that matter most for investors in today's exclusive coverage.

1. Relief Rally or the Start of a New Bull Market?

The biggest risk hanging over markets may be fading as oil prices cool and geopolitical tensions ease. But relief from bad news alone may not be enough. What fresh triggers — earnings, liquidity, flows or policy support — will be needed to take markets decisively higher?.

2. AI Trade in Full Swing. Can India Become Exciting Again?

Global investors continue to pour money into AI-linked stocks and mega IPOs. While that has created enormous wealth, concentration risks are also rising. Can India regain investor attention as AI valuations stretch?
3. Will a Peace Deal Unleash a Wall of Local Money Into Markets?
Retail and discretionary flows have weakened sharply amid months of uncertainty. With one major risk potentially disappearing, could investors who moved to cash, debt funds or deposits begin returning to equities? How important could domestic flows be in powering the next phase of the rally?
4. Can Crude Stay Below $80 for the Rest of the Year?
The removal of supply disruptions and geopolitical bottlenecks has improved the outlook for oil. But could governments and strategic reserve managers step in as buyers at lower prices? How sustainable is the decline, and what would it mean for India's macro outlook if crude remains subdued?
5. Is the Rupee Set for a Historic Rebound?
Lower oil prices reduce India's import bill, while recent RBI measures are designed to attract fresh foreign capital. Could the combination create one of the strongest periods for the rupee in years? And what would a stronger currency mean for inflation, markets and investor returns?
6. Could a Cheap Rupee Trigger the Next Wave of FII Buying?
Many currency strategists argue that the rupee remains undervalued on a Real Effective Exchange Rate basis. If the currency begins to strengthen while growth remains resilient, could India become significantly more attractive to foreign investors?
7. Is India Inc. Finally Ready for an Earnings Boom?
Revenue growth has already begun improving, but earnings growth has lagged market performance for much of the past two years. Are FY27 and FY28 shaping up to be the years when profits finally catch up with valuations? Which sectors are likely to lead the next earnings cycle?
8. Are Global Rate Cuts About to Return?
Inflation pressures are easing across many economies, strengthening the case for lower interest rates. Yet concerns around US fiscal deficits and government borrowing remain. Are central banks preparing for another round of easing, or will fiscal risks keep rates higher for longer?
9. The Next Big Trade: Stocks, Bonds, Gold or Commodities?
Every major macro cycle creates winners and losers. If rate cuts are approaching, oil remains contained and growth stabilises, where should investors be positioned? Which asset class offers the best risk-reward over the next 12-24 months?
10. Stocks and Sectors Smart Money Will Chase Now?
Market leadership often changes after periods of uncertainty. Are investors likely to gravitate toward banks, IT, capex or consumption? Or are there more contrarian opportunities emerging? Which sectors are under-owned, which are overcrowded, and where is the next wave of earnings growth likely to come from?
The answers to these questions will shape not just the direction of markets, but the investment strategies that work best in the months ahead. We've it all covered.

Source: Network18

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Monday, June 15, 2026

15/06/26, PostMarket REPORT

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