..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 22/07/26, 200% Tariff on Indian Generics

Wednesday, July 22, 2026

22/07/26, 200% Tariff on Indian Generics

US President Donald Trump has escalated his push to bring pharmaceutical manufacturing back to America, announcing a phased tariff regime that could eventually impose a staggering 200 percent duty on imported generic medicines. For India's $9.7-billion pharmaceutical export engine to the US, the announcement has triggered fresh uncertainty but not immediate alarm.

On July 21, Trump posted on Truth Social that generic drugs entering the US will continue to enjoy zero tariffs for two years starting August 1. The duty will jump to 100 percent in August 2028 and double to 200 percent from August 2029. Trump has tied the tariffs to a broader effort to force manufacturers to set up production facilities in the US.

The official order is not yet out.

Why Trump is pressing ahead

The move is part of a wider pharmaceutical reshoring strategy that Trump has been pursuing through Section 232 investigations, a trade mechanism that allows the US administration to impose restrictions if imports are deemed a national security threat.

The commerce department's Section 232 review concluded that America's heavy dependence on imported medicines and pharmaceutical ingredients poses risks to both healthcare security and national preparedness.

In April, Trump used the Section 232 framework to impose steep tariffs on patented drugs and pharmaceutical ingredients while exempting generic medicines. The proclamation said generic drugs would not be subject to tariffs "at this time" and directed authorities to review the segment within a year. The latest announcement suggests that Washington has now turned its attention to generics market where India is the dominant overseas supplier.

Currently, generic drugs are exempt from tariffs in the US.

Impact on Indian drugmakers

Indian drugmakers account for roughly 40-50 percent of all generic prescriptions dispensed in the US.

There is no immediate earnings hit for India drugmakers. India exports more than $9.7 billion worth of pharmaceuticals to the US annually, with generics forming the backbone of that trade.

The two-year window provides time to evaluate manufacturing investments, restructure supply chains or negotiate potential exemptions. All major Indian drugmakers have manufacturing facilities in US to make formulations and finished dosages.

A key unanswered question is whether tariffs will apply only to finished formulations or also to active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), many of which are sourced globally. Industry executives say the final rules will determine the real impact on profitability.

What experts are saying

Thomas V Abraham, research analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, said the market is waiting for greater clarity. According to him, most major Indian companies already have a manufacturing presence in the US, either through acquisitions or organic investments. A two-year runway may be sufficient to comply if local manufacturing requirements become a prerequisite.

Branded drugmakers previously negotiated arrangements with the US government to soften the impact of policy changes, a route that generic companies could potentially explore as well, he said.

Industry body the Indian Pharmaceutical Alliance struck a conciliatory tone. Secretary General Sudarshan Jain said Indian companies operate more than 40 facilities in the US, support local jobs, and contribute to supply-chain resilience. The association said it would continue engaging with the US administration to strengthen healthcare and medicine security for both countries.

Others see the announcement as a strategic wake-up call. Entod Pharmaceuticals CEO Nikkhil Masurkar said Indian pharma has become overly dependent on the US market and should accelerate expansion in the Middle East and other regions in Asia as well as Africa and Latin America. Diversification is an essential rather than an option, he said.

Is it a negotiating tool?

An analyst who didn't want to be named said the announcement may be a negotiating tool to extract a favourable trade deal with India.

"Generic medicines operate on razor-thin margins and manufacturing in the US carries significantly higher costs than India," he said.

Generics account for more than 90 percent of prescriptions dispensed in America, raising concerns that steep tariffs could ultimately increase healthcare costs for US consumers.

Analysts say that doubling the prices of essential medicines in an election year would be a political disaster.

Report by Vishwanath Pillai

Source:moneycontrol

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Wednesday, July 22, 2026

22/07/26, 200% Tariff on Indian Generics

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