17/08/26, Trading Strategy by Sunil Sankar

The market is largely expected to remain in a consolidation phase, given the lack of strong momentum in either direction. The Nifty 50 needs to defend the previous week's low of 24,265 for some stability. A break below this level could see the index find immediate support at 24,200, followed by the crucial support level of 24,000. However, in the event of a rebound, 24,500 and then 24,600 are the levels to watch. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty is expected to trade within the previous week's range of 57,150–58,000. A move above this range could see 58,250 act as an immediate hurdle, followed by the 58,500–58,700 zone. However, a fall below the range could open the door to the 56,600–56,400 support zone, followed by 56,000, according to experts.

On August 14, the Nifty 50 slipped 30 points, or 0.12 percent, to 24,366, while the Bank Nifty dropped 144 points, or 0.25 percent, to 57,491. Market breadth favoured the bears, with about 1,778 shares under pressure compared with 1,260 advancing shares on the National Stock Exchange.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Jatin Gedia, VP - Technical Research at Teji Mandi Investment Technologies

The Nifty 50 broke below the 24,450–24,650 range and traded with a negative bias last week. We believe the Nifty is currently retracing the 23,606–24,774 rally. It dipped towards the 24,350 anchored VWAP level (from 23,606) and formed a Doji candlestick pattern on the daily charts.

An important observation here is that the Nifty has failed to surpass the previous day's high for the past six trading sessions, indicating weakness. For the current week, a break below 24,290 (Friday's session low) would suggest further weakness towards 24,190–24,052, which are the 50 percent and 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement levels, respectively, of the 23,606–24,774 rally.

On the upside, if the Nifty manages to surpass the 24,540 anchored VWAP level (from 24,774) and sustain above it, this would suggest a potential resumption of the primary uptrend.

From the derivatives perspective, the maximum Put open interest is at the 24,000 strike, followed by the 24,300 strike, while the maximum Call open interest is at the 25,000 strike, followed by the 24,500 strike. The Put-Call ratio (PCR) improved from 0.77 to 0.88 due to added open interest at the 24,350 PE and 24,300 PE, implying a support base in the 24,350–24,300 zone. Thus, below 24,290, expect a continuation of the correction, while above 24,540, expect a resumption of the uptrend.

Key Resistance: 24,450, 24,540

Key Support: 24,190, 24,052

Strategy: Buy Nifty August Futures above 24,540, with a stop-loss of 24,370 and a target of 24,750–24,900.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head of Research) at Axis Securities

The Nifty remained under selling pressure amid concerns over the US-Iran conflict and Brent crude's surge towards $90 per barrel. The index ended the week with a loss of 205 points. On the weekly chart, it formed a bearish candle with a lower-high–lower-low pattern, indicating profit booking. However, the index remains above its 20-day SMA and continues to trade within a shallow falling channel that has been in place since August 3.

Technically, a decisive breakout above the upper band of the falling channel near 24,500 would signal a resumption of bullish momentum and could pave the way for an advance towards the 200-day SMA at 24,730, followed by the 25,000 psychological mark. On the downside, the 24,200 and 24,000 levels remain crucial support zones, and a breach of these levels could trigger further weakness.

The weekly RSI remains flat above its reference line, indicating a lack of strong momentum in either direction as the index continues to consolidate. Going forward, a decisive close above the 200-day SMA is needed to confirm a trend reversal, while the 24,000–23,800 zone remains a crucial support area for maintaining the broader recovery structure.

Key Resistance: 24,400, 24,550

Key Support: 24,200, 24,100

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures around 24,450, with a stop-loss at 24,550 and a target of 24,300–24,200.

Osho Krishan, Chief Manager - Technical & Derivative Research at Angel One

Following the Doji formation in the previous week, a sense of hesitation became evident, while the persistent sell-off gradually turned the market undertone cautious and sceptical. On the daily chart, the benchmark index has been hovering around its 20-day DEMA over the past few sessions, reflecting indecisiveness among market participants.

Technically, the index has retraced 38.20 percent of its recent rally, which also coincides with the breakout neckline of the sloping trendline, suggesting that the current decline remains a healthy retracement. However, a sustained move below the weekly low of 24,265 could weaken the technical structure and shift the outlook from cautious to bearish. Such a breakdown may expose the index to key support zones of 24,200–24,150, aligned with the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level, as well as the 50- and 100-day DEMA for the current week.

Conversely, a decisive and sustained move above 24,500 is likely to reinforce the underlying structure, potentially triggering a bullish reversal and resumption of the primary uptrend, with the 200-day DSMA at 24,730 as the next level to watch.

Key Resistance: 24,500, 24,730

Key Support: 24,265, 24,150

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips around 24,250, with a stop-loss of 24,100 and book profits near 24,500–24,600.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Jatin Gedia, VP - Technical Research at Teji Mandi Investment Technologies

Bank Nifty continued to consolidate between 57,200–57,900 for most of last week. A lack of participation from key heavyweights and divergence between private- and public-sector banks is leading to subdued price action in Bank Nifty. We expect Bank Nifty to test the rising support trendline at 57,200–57,100 and then resume its uptrend.

We observe a positive divergence developing on HDFC Bank, suggesting an exhaustion of selling pressure and potentially leading to value buying, which could help Bank Nifty recover and resume its uptrend. The highest Call and Put open interest remains at the 58,000 strike, indicating range-bound price action. The 58,000 straddle is trading at 940 points, suggesting a range of 57,000–59,000 for the next two weeks, which implies continued range-bound price action.

Key Resistance: 57,900, 58,100

Key Support: 57,200, 57,000

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty August Futures on a dip to 57,100, with a stop-loss of 56,800 and a target of 58,000–58,100.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head of Research) at Axis Securities

Bank Nifty ended the week with a loss of 255 points. On the weekly chart, the index formed a small bearish candle with shadows on both sides, reflecting indecision among market participants. The index continues to consolidate within the 58,600–56,500 range, and a decisive breakout on either side is likely to determine the next directional move.

The technical setup suggests that a sustained move above 58,000 could attract fresh buying interest, paving the way for an advance towards 58,600–59,000. Conversely, a break below 57,150 may trigger selling pressure, dragging the index towards the 57,000–56,500 support zone. Until a breakout occurs, the index is expected to remain range-bound with a mixed bias.

The weekly RSI and Stochastic Oscillator remain flat, indicating a lack of strong momentum and confirming the ongoing consolidation phase. For the week ahead, Bank Nifty is expected to trade within the 59,000–56,500 range.

Key Resistance: 57,600, 57,750

Key Support: 57,300, 57,000

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures around 57,700, with a stop-loss of 57,850 and a target of 57,500–57,350.

Osho Krishan, Chief Manager - Technical & Derivative Research at Angel One

Bank Nifty witnessed subdued price action during the last week. The index formed a lower-high/lower-low structure, indicating continued profit booking at higher levels. However, the decline remains controlled, as Bank Nifty managed to close around the 57,500 zone, which is an important short-term 200-day DSMA and is likely to act as a support area. The weekly momentum remains neutral, with RSI around the 50 zone, suggesting that the index needs a decisive breakout for a fresh directional move.

Going forward, the 57,300–57,250 zone is the key support area. Holding this zone could keep the index in consolidation and allow a recovery towards 58,000–58,250 initially. The major resistance remains around 58,700, which is also marked by the falling trendline and a repeated rejection zone on the 4-hour chart.

A sustained breakout above 58,700–59,000 would improve the structure and open the way towards 59,500–60,000. Conversely, a decisive break below 57,250 could aggravate selling pressure towards 56,800–56,500 in the upcoming week.

Key Resistance: 58,000, 58,250

Key Support: 57,250, 56,500

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips around 57,000, with a stop-loss of 56,500 and a potential target of 58,250.

Report by Sunil Sankar Matkar 

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on are their own and not of us or our analysts . We advise traders  to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.