..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 21/09/26, Shaleen Agrawal's Report on Market

Monday, September 21, 2026

21/09/26, Shaleen Agrawal's Report on Market

Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty are likely to open largely flat-to-negative on Monday, with GIFT Nifty pointing to a muted start even as gains across Asian markets and a sharp decline in crude oil prices provide a supportive global backdrop. Brent crude has fallen towards $101 a barrel and US equity futures are higher, although persistent geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East could keep investors cautious.

GIFT Nifty was trading at 23,340 around 7:55 am, down 21 points, or 0.1 percent. Indian benchmark indices ended mixed in the previous session. The Sensex slipped 20 points to 74,294.96, while the Nifty gained 75.80 points to 23,346.40 as weakness in IT and Tata Group stocks offset some of the support from falling crude prices.

Asian markets rise, US futures point higher

Asian equities edged higher on Monday, helped by gains in semiconductor stocks as demand related to artificial intelligence continued to support the technology sector. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.3 percent, while South Korea's tech-heavy Kospi advanced 1.1 percent.

Japanese cash equities were closed for a holiday, although Nikkei futures gained 0.5 percent. US equity futures were also positive, with S&P 500 futures gaining 0.3 percent and Nasdaq futures rising 0.4 percent.

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said gains in Asian markets provide a supportive regional backdrop for Indian equities, although developments in the Middle East and movements in energy prices are likely to remain important drivers of sentiment.

Brent slides towards $101, WTI drops below $100

Crude oil prices fell sharply on Monday, as investors focused on the prospect of a recovery in Saudi Arabian shipments despite continuing attacks by Yemen's Houthis and the ongoing stalemate between the US and Iran.

Brent crude dropped 2.4 percent to around $101.40 a barrel, putting it on course for its longest losing streak since June. The benchmark had already declined 0.91 percent on Friday. West Texas Intermediate fell 2.3 percent to $97.96 a barrel, after losing 1.58 percent in the previous session.

Ponmudi cautioned that geopolitical risks remain significant. Any fresh escalation between the US and Iran could quickly trigger renewed volatility in oil, currencies and global equities. Investors are also monitoring US tariff measures targeting major buyers of Russian oil.

Nasdaq, S&P 500 rise as chip stocks rally

Wall Street ended mixed on Friday as strength in semiconductor stocks lifted technology-heavy indices, while broader weakness weighed on the Dow. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.40 percent to 26,522.55, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.17 percent to 7,650.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.18 percent to 51,682.64.

Nifty technical outlook

Ponmudi sees 23,400 as the immediate hurdle for the Nifty, with a sustained move above that level potentially opening the way towards 23,500-23,600. On the downside, 23,200 is the immediate support, followed by the stronger 23,100-23,070 zone.

Foreign institutional investors turned net buyers in Indian equities on Friday after selling for seven consecutive sessions, purchasing shares worth Rs 599 crore. Domestic institutional investors also remained buyers, investing more than Rs 1,000 crore during the session.

Source: Network18

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Monday, September 21, 2026

21/09/26, Shaleen Agrawal's Report on Market

Asian markets rise, US futures point higher

Brent slides towards $101, WTI drops below $100

Nasdaq, S&P 500 rise as chip stocks rally

Nifty technical outlook

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21/09/26, Shaleen Agrawal's Report on Market

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