..... . VALI disclosures . .....: 16/02/26, FinancialMarket REPORT

Monday, February 16, 2026

16/02/26, FinancialMarket REPORT

The market reversed some of previous week's gains and fell around 1 percent amid a global sell off triggered by escalating concerns over AI related disruptions which led to sharp selling in IT stocks. This, combined with geopolitical tensions, significantly weighed on market breadth, causing the earlier optimism to fade and prompting a widespread selling pressure. However, the week was opened on a firm note, supported by favourable trade deal developments and renewed FII inflows that lifted overall risk appetite.

But in between, overall, the market traded in the previous week's range. Hence, the consolidation with range-bound trading may be seen in the upcoming week starting from February 16, though the caution prevails with focus on global AI driven distruptions. The market will closely watch flash PMI readings, FOMC minutes, US advance GDP numbers, and FIIs mood next week.

The Nifty 50 declined 223 points (0.87 percent) to 25,471, and the BSE Sensex shed 954 points (1.14 percent) to 82,627, while the broader markets outperformed benchmark indices as the Nifty Midcap

100 index fell 0.11 percent and Smallcap 100 index gained 0.56 percent during the week passing by.

"In the near term, with tariff related concerns easing and the domestic earnings season

drawing to a close on a mixed trend, market focus will hinge largely on global cues, including the US labour data and shifting

expectations surrounding the US Fed's policy path," Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments said.

According to him, with IT and metals facing persistent structural and external headwinds, market leadership may rotate toward domestically oriented sectors such as banking, autos, and select consumption driven segments.

Further, Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research at Religare Broking feels the coming week includes important domestic macro releases that could influence near-term sentiment. "Markets will monitor WPI inflation and Balance of Trade data for signals on price trends and external sector dynamics. High-frequency indicators due include HSBC flash PMI readings for Manufacturing, and Services, along with bank loan growth and foreign exchange reserves data. These releases will be evaluated for confirmation of growth momentum amid volatile global cues and continued repricing in technology stocks."

However, the overall sentiment is likely to remain cautious as investors monitor global AI driven disruptions and geopolitical risks while improved valuations and constructive GDP forecasts may help sustain FII inflows, he added.

Here are 10 key factors to watch next week:

FOMC Minutes

Globally, the market participants across asset classes will focus on the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, due on February 19 and 20, respectively. The softer reading could pull forward rate-cut expectations to June from the current July pricing, according to experts.

In addition, FOMC meeting minutes, US advance GDP data for December 2025 quarter, and weekly jobs numbers will also be closely monitored. According to most economists, the economic growth for Q4-CY25 is expected to be lower compared to 4.4 percent seen in previous quarter (Q3).

Global Economic Data

Further, the focus will also be on the flash PMI readings for February from major global economies including United States, Japan, United Kingdom, and also Europe.

The participants will also keep an eye on the preliminary estimates for Japan's GDP growth in Q4-2025 and country's inflation numbers for January due on February 16 and 20, respectively. Further, unemployment rate for December, and inflation & retail sales for January from United Kingdom will also be watched next week.

The week ahead will be holiday-shortened as US markets will be closed for Presidents' Day on February 16, and Chinese exchanges remain shut until February 23 for the Lunar New Year.

SC's ruling on Trump tariffs

Markets will also watch the Supreme Court's ruling on Donald Trump tariffs scheduled for February 20. US President Donald Trump started of levying duties on all goods and services entering the country along with reciprocal tariffs on select countries since April 2025. Since then, the White House has been negotiating with its trading partners.

Last November, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments challenging the auspices under which Trump justified the tariffs. The decision was expected in January. The high court hasn't ruled yet, and there's concern in the White House that a negative ruling could force the US into reimbursing the duties collected so far. The tariffs helped put a dent in the pace of the budget deficit. Customs duties collected through tariffs totalled $30 billion for the month, putting the fiscal year-to-date tally at $124 billion, or 304% more than the same period in 2025. CNBC-TV18 reported.

Domestic Economic Data

Back home, the market participants will focus on the WPI inflation data for January due on February 16 which most economists feel is expected to climb over 1 percent compared to 0.83 percent in previous month.

The unemployment rate and balance of trade numbers for January will also release on the same day. Unemployment rate is expected to be around similar levels of previous month.

Further, HSBC manufacturing and services PMI flash data for February as well as bank loan & deposit growth for fortnight ended February 6 and foreign exchange reserves for week ended February 13 will be released on final day of next week i.e. February 20. Manufacturing PMI in January rose to 55.4 (against 55 in December), while services PMI also climbed to 58.5 (from 58) in the same period.

FII Flow

The focus wlll also be on the FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors) mood check as they turned out to be significant sellers on Friday to the tune of Rs 7,395 crore which resulted in to the net outflow not only for last week (Rs 4,019 crore) but also for February (Rs 1,374 crore). Before Friday's outflow, they were net buyers for the week as well as current month in the cash segment.

On the contrary, DIIs (Domestic Institutional Investors) maintained their support to the equity market, fully compensating the FIIs outflow in the week and month. They net bought Rs 6,884 crore worth shares during the week, and Rs 9,776 crore in the month.

Meanwhile, the Indian rupee appreciated for second consecutive week, strengthening 0.06 percent to 90.5 against the US dollar amid throughout the week consolidation, in addition to 1.19 percent rally in previous week.

IPO

On the primary market front, investors will see total three IPOs - Gaudium IVF & Women Health, Fractal Industries, and Yashhtej Industries (India) - next week. Of which, fertility services provider Gaudium IVF & Women Health will be the only IPO from the mainboard segment, opening for subscription on February 20, while others two are from the SME segment - Fractal Industries, and Yashhtej Industries which will open on February 16 and 18, respectively.

Marushika Technology, the SME IPO, will remain open till February 16, while its shares will be available for trading on the NSE Emerge effective February 19.

Mainboard companies - Fractal Analytics, and Aye Finance will make their market debut on February 16.

Technical View

Technically, the Nifty faced lot of resistance at the psychological 26,000 zone and decisively closed below the same during the week. It slipped below short term moving averages as well as midline of Bollinger bands with above-average volumes, while the momentum indicators are not supportive either. For the upcoming week, the index is expected to be in 25,300-26,000 range as convincing trade above it can open door for record high (26,373) or below it the fall toward 25,000 can't be ruled out.

F&O Cues

The weekly options data suggested that the 25,600 is expected to be immediate resistance for the Nifty 50 followed by the 25,900-26,000, with support at 25,300 followed by 25,000 being a crucial support zone.

The maximum Call open interest was seen at the 26,000 strike, followed by the 25,600 and 25,900 strikes, with the maximum Call writing at the 25,600, 25,500 and 25,700 strikes. On the Put side, the 25,000 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 25,500 and 25,300 strikes, with the maximum Put writing at the 25,000, 25,300 and 25,400 strikes.

India VIX

Meanwhile, the fear gauge, India VIX needs to decisively fall below 11.5 zone for the bulls to get in to comfort zone, until then the caution is expected to prevail in the market. The VIX spiked 11.33 percent during the week to 13.29 after a 20.9 percent decline in previous week.

Report by Sunil Shankar Matkar at Moneycontrol

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Trade Cycles

The four important features of Trade Cycle are (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) Depression!

The trades cycle or business cycle are cyclical fluctuations of an economy. A full trade cycle has got four phases: (i) Recovery, (ii) Boom, (iii) Recession, and (iv) depression. The upward phase of a trade cycle or prosperity is divided into two stages—recovery and boom, and the downward phase of a trade cycle is also divided into two stages—recession and depression.

Phases of Trade Cycle:

The phases of trade cycle are explained with a diagram:

(1) Recovery:

In the early period of recovery, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment which in turn increases employment and income. Employment increases purchasing power and this leads to an increase in demand for consumer goods.

As a result, demand for goods will press upon their supply and it shall, thereby, lead to a rise in prices. The demand for consumer’s goods shall encourage the demand for producer’s goods.

The rise in prices shall depend upon the gestation period of investment. The longer the period of investment, the higher shall be the price rise. The rise of prices shall bring about a change in the distribution of income. Rent, wages, interest do not rise in the same proportion as prices.

Consequently, the margin of profit improves. The wholesale prices rise more than retail prices. The prices of raw materials rise more than the prices of semi-finished goods and the prices of semi-finished goods use more than the prices of finished goods.

(2) Boom:

The rate of investment increases still further. Owing to the spread of a wave of optimism in business, the level of production increases and the boom gathers momentum. More investment is possible only through credit creation. During a period of boom, the economy surpasses the level of full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.

(3) Recession:

The orders for raw materials are reduced on the onset of a recession. The rate of investment in producers’ goods industries and housing construction declines. Liquidity preference rises in society and owing to a contraction of money supply, the prices falls. A wave of pessimism spreads in business and those markets which were sometime before sellers markets become buyer’s markets now.

(4) Depression:

The main feature of a depression is a general fall in economic activity. Production, employment and income decline. The prices fall and the main factor responsible for it is, a fall in the purchasing power.

The distribution of national income changes. As the costs are rigid in nature, the margin of profit declines. Machines are not used to their full capacity in factories, because effective demand is much less. The prices of finished goods fall less than the prices of raw materials.

✳Reality Tips to Traders

1)Trading in the stock market is a marathon. 2)Protecting your capital is key. (Learn to protect first) 3)Making 0 on the day is better than losing 50k 4)Losses happen; they are part of this business. 5)It’s not you vs. the market. It’s you VS you. 6)You are your biggest enemy; learn to be mentally disciplined. 7)Don’t follow the majority; follow the correct path. 8)Traders without a stop loss end up not being traders for long. 9)There is always another trade. 10)The big money is made waiting for the right set-ups. 11)Waiting for the right trade is the most powerful strategy. 12)It is better to cut a loss than to wait to be proven right. 13)Position sizing can make or break you. 14)Worry about the downside before you even think about the upside. 15)Don’t listen to headlines

..BANKING TERMINOLOGY

There are various types of Banks: PSU Banks, Private Banks, Co-operative/Regional Banks, Small Finance Banks and Foreign Banks. When you deposit money in a bank, let's say the bank gives you an interest rate of 4%. But when the bank lends out this money, they lend it out at say, 12%. The difference of 8% in the above scenario is effectively the profit of the bank! The loans that do not pay interest for 90 days are known as Non-performing Assets. Banks have to provide for such bad loans. Structure of a Bank Asset for a Bank: The asset portion of a bank's capital includes cash, government securities, and interest-earning loans (e.g., mortgages, letters of credit, and inter-bank loans). Liabilities for a Bank: The bank's main liabilities are its capital (including cash reserves and, often, subordinated debt) and deposits. The latter may be from domestic or foreign sources (corporations and firms, private individuals, other banks, and even governments). Banks are required to maintain Liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India: SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio): It is the money a bank needs to preserve in the form of cash, gold or government Bonds before providing credit customers. This limitation is added by RBI on banks to make funds available to customers on-demand at your earliest convenience. Banks are required to maintain SLR at 18%. CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio): Banks are required to hold a certain proportion of their deposits in the form of cash. Banks don’t hold these as cash with themselves, but deposit such amounts with RBI / currency chests. CRR rate is at 4.5% currently. Repo Rate: The rate at which the RBI lends short-term money to the banks. The RBI through its Monetary Policy committee changes the repo rate to balance growth and Inflation. Reverse Repo rate: The rate at which banks park their short-term excess liquidity with the RBI. Now let us understand various terminologies for Banks Net Interest Income (NII): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is calculated as Interest Income – Interest Expended Net Interest Margin (NIM): This is the spread the bank makes on its lending. It is the earning which is left after deducting the cost paid to depositors from its yields on Loans. This is denoted in % terms. The formula is Yield on Loans – Cost of funds Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a measure of a bank's available capital expressed as a percentage of a bank's risk-weighted credit exposures. Essentially, it is the Capital that is available to lend. Tier I Capital – In simple words this capital is freely available with the bank to lend out. Tier II Capital- This is the capital tied up somewhere and is less freely available to lend. In case of an adverse event, the bank can use this capital to lend. Under Basel III norms, a bank’s tier 1+tier 2 capital must be a minimum of 8% of its risk-weighted holdings. The minimum capital adequacy ratio, also including the capital conservation buffer, is 10.5%. Current Account Saving Account (CASA)- There is no interest paid on the Current Account and a small interest rate is paid on a savings account. The combination of both is called CASA which shows the liabilities of the bank on which it pays relatively less interest. Deposits: Bank deposits are a savings product that customers can use to hold an amount of money at a bank for a specified length of time. In return, the financial institution will pay the customer the relevant amount of interest, based on how much they choose to deposit and for how long. Now let us come to NPA. Gross NPA (GNPA): It is the total loans on which no payment has been paid for 90 days or more. GNPA % is usually shown in each Bank’s quarterly results. The percentage is basically the GNPA amount as a % of the total advances. Slippages: Slippages denote the fresh amount of loans that have turned bad in a year. The slippage ratio of a bank is calculated as Fresh accretion of NPAs during the year /Total standard assets at the beginning of the year multiplied by 100. Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR): This is the ratio of provisioning to GNPA and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses. For Instance, a company has GNPAs of Rs 100 and they have set aside 50 Rs, then the PCR is 50%. Net NPA (NNPA): The total figure left after deducting provisions made for bad loans from GNPA. (GNPA – Provisions+upgrades/writeoffs = NNPA) Special Mention Account (SMA) SMA-0 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 0 to 30 days. SMA-1 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 30-60 days. SMA-2 is a category in which stress with respect to the principal and interest has remained overdue for a period of 60-90 days

..... . VALI disclosures . .....

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Monday, February 16, 2026

16/02/26, FinancialMarket REPORT

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Today's

04/04/26, Silver rate today: After climbing to an all-time high of ₹4,20,088 per kg on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), the silver rate today in India is at ₹ 2,32,600 per kg, around ₹ 1,87,500 or 45% below the record high.

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